# Machine Feeders and Offbearers

US SOC code 53-7063. Markdown version of https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/53-7063

## In brief

In May 2025, [BLS](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip) counted **42,330** US machine feeders and offbearers, with median pay of **$41,220** a year. The earliest figure here is [an estimate](https://www.cambridge.org/us/universitypress/subjects/history/american-history-general-interest/fall-house-labor-workplace-state-and-american-labor-activism-1865-1925) of **500,000** from 1900, not measured the same way as today's count. The last full technology era for machine feeders and offbearers: Industrial robots and programmable logic controllers at machine interfaces, 1970 to 2010. Acemoglu and Restrepo (2020) estimated that the arrival of one new industrial robot in a local labor market coincided with an employment drop of several workers.

Figures: Official statistic (latest count and pay); Researched context (earliest figure).

## What the sources say

### Official outlook

BLS projects employment to decline 13.1% from 2025 to 2035. Source: [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=53-7063&ioType=o) (Official statistic).

### AI exposure studies

- **0.93** estimated probability that the whole occupation could be computerised, over an unspecified number of years. Not a forecast of job losses. [Frey and Osborne, 2013](https://oms-www.files.svdcdn.com/production/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf) (Official statistic)

### Since the 2013 prediction

In 2013, Frey and Osborne put this job's probability of computerisation at 0.93. BLS counted **106,160** of these jobs in May 2013 and **42,330** in May 2025 (-60%, a change derived by Future History). Figures: Official statistic.

Data as of BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025-35. BLS publishes these counts as yearly survey snapshots and cautions against reading them as a precise trend. In May 2021 BLS changed how it estimates these counts (a model-based method using three years of survey data) and moved fully to the 2018 occupation codes, so part of a change across 2021 can come from the method rather than the work.

## Machine Feeders and Offbearers employment and pay by year

- On record since: 1790
- Latest US employment: 42,330 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [5]
- Latest US median pay: $41,220 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [8]
- Outlook: -13.1% by 2035. Source: BLS Employment Projections 2025-35 [19]

### All 29 years of cited US data

| Year | US employment | Annual pay (median unless marked) | Source |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1900 | 500,000 (estimate) | n/a | Est., David Montgomery [1] |
| 1915 | n/a | $600 (average) | BLS historical bulletin 2016 [6] |
| 1940 | 900,000 | n/a | Decennial Census 1940 [2] |
| 1950 | n/a | $2,600 (average) | BLS historical bulletin 1951 [7] |
| 1970 | 650,000 | n/a | Decennial Census 1970 [3] |
| 1990 | 280,000 | n/a | Decennial Census 1990 [4] |
| 2003 | 159,160 | $21,980 | BLS OEWS May 2003 [5] |
| 2004 | 149,500 | $22,210 | BLS OEWS May 2004 [5] |
| 2005 | 145,740 | $22,330 | BLS OEWS May 2005 [5] |
| 2006 | 150,600 | $22,640 | BLS OEWS May 2006 [5] |
| 2007 | 143,140 | $23,880 | BLS OEWS May 2007 [5] |
| 2008 | 144,820 | $25,570 | BLS OEWS May 2008 [5] |
| 2009 | 129,180 | $26,290 | BLS OEWS May 2009 [5] |
| 2010 | 119,730 | $27,000 | BLS OEWS May 2010 [5] |
| 2011 | 110,950 | $27,020 | BLS OEWS May 2011 [5] |
| 2012 | 105,790 | $27,120 | BLS OEWS May 2012 [5] |
| 2013 | 106,160 | $28,310 | BLS OEWS May 2013 [5] |
| 2014 | 104,340 | $29,290 | BLS OEWS May 2014 [5] |
| 2015 | 100,020 | $29,440 | BLS OEWS May 2015 [5] |
| 2016 | 88,070 | $28,410 | BLS OEWS May 2016 [5] |
| 2017 | 74,350 | $28,510 | BLS OEWS May 2017 [5] |
| 2018 | 66,380 | $29,560 | BLS OEWS May 2018 [5] |
| 2019 | 63,280 | $31,180 | BLS OEWS May 2019 [5] |
| 2020 | 64,240 | $33,000 | BLS OEWS May 2020 [5] |
| 2021 | 60,880 | $37,010 | BLS OEWS May 2021 [5] |
| 2022 | 51,010 | $38,040 | BLS OEWS May 2022 [5] |
| 2023 | 44,500 | $39,250 | BLS OEWS May 2023 [5] |
| 2024 | 46,690 | $39,700 | BLS OEWS May 2024 [5] |
| 2025 | 42,330 | $41,220 | BLS OEWS May 2025 [5] |

## Sources (75)

### Employment series

1. [David Montgomery, "The Fall of the House of Labor" (Cambridge University Press, 1987): scholarly estimate of semiskilled operatives in late-19th/early-20th-century US manufacturing](https://www.cambridge.org/us/universitypress/subjects/history/american-history-general-interest/fall-house-labor-workplace-state-and-american-labor-activism-1865-1925), Cambridge University Press
2. [US Census Bureau, "Comparative Occupation Statistics for the United States, 1870 to 1940" (1943) — operatives and kindred workers in manufacturing](https://www.census.gov/library/publications/1943/dec/population-occupation.html), United States Census Bureau
3. [IPUMS USA, "1970 Occupation Codes" — operatives and kindred workers category documentation](https://usa.ipums.org/usa/volii/97occup.shtml), IPUMS / University of Minnesota
4. [International Federation of Robotics, "World Robotics" historical data (1990 US industrial robot installations); IPUMS USA "1990 Occupation Codes" for machine operator subcategories](https://usa.ipums.org/usa/volii/occ1990.shtml), IPUMS / University of Minnesota
5. BLS OEWS, national cross-industry estimates (flat file), Bureau of Labor Statistics. Editions: [2003](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm03nat.zip), [2004](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm04nat.zip), [2005](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm05nat.zip), [2006](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm06nat.zip), [2007](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm07nat.zip), [2008](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm08nat.zip), [2009](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm09nat.zip), [2010](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm10nat.zip), [2011](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm11nat.zip), [2012](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm12nat.zip), [2013](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm13nat.zip), [2014](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm14nat.zip), [2015](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm15nat.zip), [2016](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm16nat.zip), [2017](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm17nat.zip), [2018](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm18nat.zip), [2019](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm19nat.zip), [2020](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm20nat.zip), [2021](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm21nat.zip), [2022](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22nat.zip), [2023](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23nat.zip), [2024](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), [2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip)

### Wage series

6. [U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Monthly Labor Review (Feb 2016), "The life of American workers in 1915" — semiskilled factory operative wages circa 1915](https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2016/article/the-life-of-american-workers-in-1915.htm), U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
7. [BLS Bulletin No. 1040 (1951): "Hourly Earnings by Industry, January 1950 to January 1951" (semiskilled operative wage data)](https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/files/docs/publications/bls/bls_1040_1951.pdf), Bureau of Labor Statistics / FRASER
8. BLS OEWS, national cross-industry estimates (flat file), Bureau of Labor Statistics. Editions: [2003](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm03nat.zip), [2004](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm04nat.zip), [2005](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm05nat.zip), [2006](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm06nat.zip), [2007](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm07nat.zip), [2008](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm08nat.zip), [2009](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm09nat.zip), [2010](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm10nat.zip), [2011](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm11nat.zip), [2012](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm12nat.zip), [2013](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm13nat.zip), [2014](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm14nat.zip), [2015](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm15nat.zip), [2016](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm16nat.zip), [2017](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm17nat.zip), [2018](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm18nat.zip), [2019](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm19nat.zip), [2020](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm20nat.zip), [2021](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm21nat.zip), [2022](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22nat.zip), [2023](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23nat.zip), [2024](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), [2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip)

### Tool eras

9. [Thomas Dublin, "Women at Work: The Transformation of Work and Community in Lowell, Massachusetts, 1826-1860" (Columbia University Press, 1979) — hand-fed mill operations and workforce](https://cup.columbia.edu/book/women-at-work/9780231041676/), Columbia University Press
10. [Smithsonian National Museum of American History — "Samuel Slater and the Patented Slater Mill" (Pawtucket, 1793)](https://americanhistory.si.edu/collections/object-groups/slater-mill), Smithsonian National Museum of American History
11. [Wikipedia — "Conveyor belt" (industrial history, Thomas Robins 1890s development)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conveyor_belt), Wikipedia
12. [Oregon Encyclopedia — "Timber Industry" (green chain and sawmill operations in the Pacific Northwest)](https://www.oregonencyclopedia.org/articles/timber_industry/), Oregon Encyclopedia
13. [US Department of Labor, "Dictionary of Occupational Titles" (4th Edition, Revised 1991) — "machine feeder" and "offbearer" occupation descriptions](https://www.dol.gov/agencies/oalj/topics/libraries/LIBDOT), US Department of Labor
14. [Wikipedia — "Vibratory bowl feeder" (industrial history of automatic parts feeding)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vibrating_feeder), Wikipedia
15. [Acemoglu and Restrepo, "Robots and Jobs: Evidence from US Labor Markets" (NBER Working Paper 23285, 2017; Journal of Political Economy 2020) — robot adoption and manufacturing employment 1990-2007](https://www.nber.org/papers/w23285), National Bureau of Economic Research
16. [Wikipedia — "Unimate" (first industrial robot, General Motors 1961)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unimate), Wikipedia
17. [Universal Robots — "Our History" (collaborative robot development from 2008, first commercial sale)](https://www.universal-robots.com/about-us/history/), Universal Robots
18. [O\*NET 53-7063.00 — BLS OEWS May 2024 (current tools: feeder consoles, conveyor belt systems, electric hoists, digital floor scales)](https://www.onetonline.org/link/summary/53-7063.00), O\*NET / BLS

### Forecasts and exposure studies

19. [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35, National Employment Matrix: 53-7063 Machine feeders and offbearers (2025: 41.8 thousand; 2035: 36.3 thousand; -13.1%)](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=53-7063&ioType=o), Bureau of Labor Statistics
20. [Frey & Osborne (2013), "The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?", Appendix (SOC 53-7063 Machine Feeders and Offbearers: probability 0.93, rank 580 of 702)](https://oms-www.files.svdcdn.com/production/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf), Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford

### Historical notes

21. [Smithsonian National Museum of American History — "Samuel Slater and the Patented Slater Mill, Pawtucket, Rhode Island, 1793"](https://americanhistory.si.edu/collections/object-groups/slater-mill), Smithsonian National Museum of American History
22. [Library of Congress Classroom Materials — "Work in the Late 19th Century" (Lowell mill system history)](https://www.loc.gov/classroom-materials/united-states-history-primary-source-timeline/rise-of-industrial-america-1876-1900/work-in-late-19th-century/), Library of Congress
23. [Oregon Encyclopedia — "Timber Industry in Oregon" (sawmill employment and green-chain operations at the turn of the 20th century)](https://www.oregonencyclopedia.org/articles/timber_industry/), Oregon Encyclopedia
24. [US Department of Labor — "History of child labor in the United States: the reform movement" (Fair Labor Standards Act 1938, BLS Monthly Labor Review 2017)](https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2017/article/history-of-child-labor-in-the-united-states-part-2-the-reform-movement.htm), Bureau of Labor Statistics
25. [Wikipedia — "Unimate" (first industrial robot, General Motors 1961)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unimate), Wikipedia
26. [Acemoglu and Restrepo (2020) — "Robots and Jobs: Evidence from US Labor Markets" (NBER Working Paper 23285; Journal of Political Economy)](https://www.nber.org/papers/w23285), National Bureau of Economic Research
27. [Frey and Osborne (2013) — "The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?" (Oxford Martin School)](https://oms-www.files.svdcdn.com/production/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf), Oxford Martin School

### Predecessors & successors

28. [David Montgomery, "The Fall of the House of Labor" (Cambridge University Press, 1987) — rural-to-factory migration and semiskilled operative formation](https://www.cambridge.org/us/universitypress/subjects/history/american-history-general-interest/fall-house-labor-workplace-state-and-american-labor-activism-1865-1925), Cambridge University Press
29. [BLS Monthly Labor Review — "History of child labor in the United States, part 2: the reform movement" (2017)](https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2017/article/history-of-child-labor-in-the-united-states-part-2-the-reform-movement.htm), Bureau of Labor Statistics

### Present-day analysis

- [Eloundou et al. 2024 — GPTs are GPTs (Science)](https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.10130), accessed 2026-05-21
- [O\*NET 30.3 — US Department of Labor](https://www.onetcenter.org/database.html), accessed 2026-05-21

How to read these figures: https://futurehistory.earth/methodology. Every figure links to its own source; gaps stay gaps.