# Refuse and Recyclable Material Collectors

US SOC code 53-7081. Markdown version of https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/53-7081

Also called: Garbage collector, Sanitation worker, Waste collector, Recycling collector, Trash collector.

## In brief

In May 2025, [BLS](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip) counted **147,240** US refuse and recyclable material collectors, with median pay of **$49,690** a year. Of the BLS counts since 2003, the May 2025 count is the highest. The earliest figure here is [an estimate](https://www.history.com/articles/george-waring) of **2,000** from 1896, not measured the same way as today's count. The last full technology era for refuse and recyclable material collectors: Telematics, GPS routing + in-cab tablets, 2010 to 2023.

## What the sources say

### Official outlook

BLS projects employment to grow 2.1% from 2025 to 2035. Source: [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=53-7081&ioType=o).

### AI exposure studies

- **23.2%** of this job's tasks are exposed to large language models. Not a forecast of job losses. [Eloundou and others, 2023](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv)
- **0.93** estimated probability that the whole occupation could be computerised, over an unspecified number of years. Not a forecast of job losses. [Frey and Osborne, 2013](https://oms-www.files.svdcdn.com/production/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf)

### Since the 2013 prediction

In 2013, Frey and Osborne put this job's probability of computerisation at 0.93. BLS counted **116,460** of these jobs in May 2013 and **147,240** in May 2025 (+26%, a change derived by Future History).

Data as of BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025-35. BLS publishes these counts as yearly survey snapshots and cautions against reading them as a precise trend. In May 2021 BLS changed how it estimates these counts (a model-based method using three years of survey data) and moved fully to the 2018 occupation codes, so part of a change across 2021 can come from the method rather than the work.

## Refuse and Recyclable Material Collectors employment and pay by year

- On record since: 1895
- Latest US employment: 147,240 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [4]
- Latest US median pay: $49,690 (May 2025). Source: BLS OEWS May 2025 [6]
- Outlook: +2.1% by 2035. Source: BLS Employment Projections 2025-35 [17]

### All 27 years of cited US data

| Year | US employment | Annual pay (median unless marked) | Source |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1896 | 2,000 (estimate) | n/a | Est., HISTORY [1] |
| 1950 | 90,000 | n/a | Census (IPUMS) [2] |
| 1968 | n/a | $3,400 (estimate) | Est., Wikipedia [5] |
| 2000 | 118,910 | n/a | BLS OEWS 2000 [3] |
| 2003 | 138,480 | $24,040 | BLS OEWS May 2003 [4] |
| 2004 | 139,920 | $25,760 | BLS OEWS May 2004 [4] |
| 2005 | 133,930 | $28,460 | BLS OEWS May 2005 [4] |
| 2006 | 125,770 | $28,970 | BLS OEWS May 2006 [4] |
| 2007 | 126,270 | $29,420 | BLS OEWS May 2007 [4] |
| 2008 | 129,080 | $31,050 | BLS OEWS May 2008 [4] |
| 2009 | 128,940 | $32,070 | BLS OEWS May 2009 [4] |
| 2010 | 126,360 | $32,640 | BLS OEWS May 2010 [4] |
| 2011 | 123,160 | $32,280 | BLS OEWS May 2011 [4] |
| 2012 | 117,670 | $32,930 | BLS OEWS May 2012 [4] |
| 2013 | 116,460 | $32,720 | BLS OEWS May 2013 [4] |
| 2014 | 115,170 | $33,660 | BLS OEWS May 2014 [4] |
| 2015 | 114,220 | $33,800 | BLS OEWS May 2015 [4] |
| 2016 | 114,680 | $35,270 | BLS OEWS May 2016 [4] |
| 2017 | 115,130 | $36,160 | BLS OEWS May 2017 [4] |
| 2018 | 118,520 | $37,260 | BLS OEWS May 2018 [4] |
| 2019 | 121,330 | $37,840 | BLS OEWS May 2019 [4] |
| 2020 | 120,850 | $39,100 | BLS OEWS May 2020 [4] |
| 2021 | 126,050 | $38,500 | BLS OEWS May 2021 [4] |
| 2022 | 132,240 | $43,540 | BLS OEWS May 2022 [4] |
| 2023 | 135,430 | $45,760 | BLS OEWS May 2023 [4] |
| 2024 | 139,180 | $48,350 | BLS OEWS May 2024 [4] |
| 2025 | 147,240 | $49,690 | BLS OEWS May 2025 [4] |

## Sources (80)

### Employment series

1. [HISTORY — "George Waring: The Colonel Who Cleaned Up New York" (White Wings municipal force, 1895)](https://www.history.com/articles/george-waring), HISTORY
2. [IPUMS USA — Occupation and Industry Codes and Documentation (Census occupational classification, laborers/operatives)](https://usa.ipums.org/usa/volii/occ_ind.shtml), IPUMS / University of Minnesota
3. [BLS OES 2000 national estimates (flat file)](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oes00nat.zip), Bureau of Labor Statistics
4. BLS OEWS, national cross-industry estimates (flat file), Bureau of Labor Statistics. Editions: [2003](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm03nat.zip), [2004](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm04nat.zip), [2005](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm05nat.zip), [2006](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm06nat.zip), [2007](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm07nat.zip), [2008](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm08nat.zip), [2009](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm09nat.zip), [2010](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm10nat.zip), [2011](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm11nat.zip), [2012](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm12nat.zip), [2013](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm13nat.zip), [2014](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm14nat.zip), [2015](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm15nat.zip), [2016](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm16nat.zip), [2017](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm17nat.zip), [2018](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm18nat.zip), [2019](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm19nat.zip), [2020](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm20nat.zip), [2021](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm21nat.zip), [2022](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22nat.zip), [2023](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23nat.zip), [2024](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), [2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip)

### Wage series

5. [Wikipedia — "Memphis sanitation strike" (wages and conditions before the strike: $1.60/hr, many on welfare)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Memphis_sanitation_strike), Wikipedia
6. BLS OEWS, national cross-industry estimates (flat file), Bureau of Labor Statistics. Editions: [2003](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm03nat.zip), [2004](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm04nat.zip), [2005](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm05nat.zip), [2006](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm06nat.zip), [2007](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm07nat.zip), [2008](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm08nat.zip), [2009](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm09nat.zip), [2010](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm10nat.zip), [2011](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm11nat.zip), [2012](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm12nat.zip), [2013](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm13nat.zip), [2014](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm14nat.zip), [2015](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm15nat.zip), [2016](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm16nat.zip), [2017](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm17nat.zip), [2018](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm18nat.zip), [2019](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm19nat.zip), [2020](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm20nat.zip), [2021](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm21nat.zip), [2022](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22nat.zip), [2023](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23nat.zip), [2024](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip), [2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip)

### Tool eras

7. [HISTORY — "George Waring: The Colonel Who Cleaned Up New York"](https://www.history.com/articles/george-waring), HISTORY
8. [Wikipedia — George E. Waring Jr. (Department of Street Cleaning, White Wings, source separation)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_E._Waring_Jr.), Wikipedia
9. [Wikipedia — Garbage truck (early motorized trucks; 1897 Chiswick steam tip-car)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Garbage_truck), Wikipedia
10. [Atlas Obscura — "The Evolution of the Garbage Truck"](https://www.atlasobscura.com/articles/the-evolution-of-the-garbage-truck), Atlas Obscura
11. [Big Truck Rental — "The History of the Rear Loader Garbage Truck" (Leach Packmaster, 1947)](https://routereadytrucks.com/blogs/history-garbage-trucks/), Big Truck Rental
12. [Big Truck Rental — "History of the Side Loader Garbage Truck" (PakMor side loader, 1947)](https://bigtruckrental.com/blog/side-loader-garbage-truck-rental-service/side-loader-history/), Big Truck Rental
13. [Routeware — "5 Key Waste Management Technologies for 2025" (route optimization, in-cab tablets, telematics)](https://routeware.com/blog/5-key-waste-management-technologies-for-2025/), Routeware
14. [AMCS — "Smarter Waste Management: How AI Is Reshaping Waste Collections"](https://www.amcsgroup.com/resources/blogs/smarter-waste-management-how-ai-is-reshaping-waste-collections/), AMCS Group
15. [TechXplore — "At CES, AI-powered garbage trucks reduce battery fire risk" (Oshkosh/Republic load scanning, Jan 2025)](https://techxplore.com/news/2025-01-ces-ai-powered-garbage-trucks.html), TechXplore
16. [McNeilus/Oshkosh — HARR-E Autonomous Refuse Collection Robot (CES 2025 prototype)](https://mcneilusgarbagetrucks.com/autonomous-refuse-collection-harr-e), McNeilus / Oshkosh

### Forecasts and exposure studies

17. [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35, National Employment Matrix: 53-7081 Refuse and recyclable material collectors (2025: 156.4 thousand; 2035: 159.6 thousand; +2.1%)](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=53-7081&ioType=o), Bureau of Labor Statistics
18. [Frey & Osborne (2013), "The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?", Appendix (SOC 53-7081 Refuse and Recyclable Material Collectors: probability 0.93, rank 585 of 702)](https://oms-www.files.svdcdn.com/production/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf), Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford
19. [Eloundou, Manning, Mishkin & Rock (2023), "GPTs are GPTs", occupation-level exposure data occ\_level.csv (O\*NET-SOC 53-7081.00, human-rated β 0.232)](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv), OpenAI

### Historical notes

20. [HISTORY — "George Waring: The Colonel Who Cleaned Up New York"](https://www.history.com/articles/george-waring), HISTORY
21. [Wikipedia — Garbage truck (Garwood Load Packer, 1938; Dempster-Dumpster, 1937)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Garbage_truck), Wikipedia
22. [Wikipedia — "Memphis sanitation strike" (February 1968; Cole and Walker deaths; union recognition; MLK assassination)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Memphis_sanitation_strike), Wikipedia
23. [Big Truck Rental — "History of the Side Loader Garbage Truck" (Scottsdale, AZ, 1969)](https://bigtruckrental.com/blog/side-loader-garbage-truck-rental-service/side-loader-history/), Big Truck Rental
24. [TechXplore — "At CES, AI-powered garbage trucks reduce battery fire risk" (January 2025)](https://techxplore.com/news/2025-01-ces-ai-powered-garbage-trucks.html), TechXplore

### Predecessors & successors

25. [Wikipedia — George E. Waring Jr. (pre-municipal private scavenging and the shift to public collection)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_E._Waring_Jr.), Wikipedia
26. [HISTORY — "George Waring: The Colonel Who Cleaned Up New York" (White Wings)](https://www.history.com/articles/george-waring), HISTORY

### Present-day analysis

- [O\*NET 30.3 — Refuse and Recyclable Material Collectors (53-7081.00)](https://www.onetonline.org/link/summary/53-7081.00), accessed 2026-06-05
- [BLS OEWS May 2023 — Refuse and Recyclable Material Collectors](https://www.bls.gov/oes/2023/may/oes537081.htm), accessed 2026-06-05
- [CurbWaste — Garbage Collector Salary Analysis 2024](https://www.curbwaste.com/garbage-man-salary), accessed 2026-06-05
- [Routeware — 5 Key Waste Management Technologies for 2025](https://routeware.com/blog/5-key-waste-management-technologies-for-2025/), accessed 2026-06-05
- [AMCS — Smarter Waste Management: How AI Is Reshaping Waste Collections](https://www.amcsgroup.com/resources/blogs/smarter-waste-management-how-ai-is-reshaping-waste-collections/), accessed 2026-06-05
- [TechXplore — At CES, AI-powered garbage trucks reduce battery fire risk (Jan 2025)](https://techxplore.com/news/2025-01-ces-ai-powered-garbage-trucks.html), accessed 2026-06-05
- [McNeilus/Oshkosh — HARR-E Autonomous Refuse Collection Robot (CES 2025)](https://mcneilusgarbagetrucks.com/autonomous-refuse-collection-harr-e), accessed 2026-06-05
- [AMCS Vision AI — Waste Collection Contamination Detection](https://www.amcsgroup.com/solutions/amcs-vision-ai/), accessed 2026-06-05
- [Routeware — Route Optimization Software](https://routeware.com/solutions/collection-operations/route-optimization/), accessed 2026-06-05
- [NextBillion.ai — Ultimate Guide to Waste Collection Route Optimization 2025](https://nextbillion.ai/blog/waste-collection-route-optimization), accessed 2026-06-05

How to read these figures: https://futurehistory.earth/methodology. Every figure links to its own source; gaps stay gaps.