# AI and jobs: what the sources say

Data story. Markdown version of https://futurehistory.earth/trends/ai-and-jobs

Of the 25 largest jobs we track, BLS projects employment from 2025 to 2035 to grow in 15, to decline in 5 and to change by less than 1 percent in 5 (BLS Employment Projections 2025-35). Studies of AI exposure measure how much of a job's work AI could touch; none of them is a forecast of job losses.

Data as of: BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025-35.

## The 25 largest jobs: the BLS outlook and each AI study

| Job | Jobs, BLS OEWS | BLS projected change in jobs | Tasks exposed to large language models (Eloundou and others, 2023) | Probability of computerisation (Frey and Osborne, 2013) | Tasks exposed to AI automation in the job's group (Goldman Sachs, 2023) | Sources |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Retail Salespersons](https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/41-2031) | 3,897,860 (May 2025) | -0.3% (2025 to 2035) | 35.5% | 0.92 | None cited | [BLS OEWS May 2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip); [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=41-2031&ioType=o); [Eloundou and others, 2023](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv); [Frey and Osborne, 2013](https://oms-www.files.svdcdn.com/production/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf) |
| [Fast Food and Counter Workers](https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/35-3023) | 3,854,050 (May 2025) | +5.8% (2025 to 2035) | 7.3% | None cited | None cited | [BLS OEWS May 2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip); [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=35-3023&ioType=o); [Eloundou and others, 2023](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv) |
| [General and Operations Managers](https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/11-1021) | 3,503,020 (May 2025) | +5% (2025 to 2035) | 38.5% | 0.16 | None cited | [BLS OEWS May 2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip); [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=11-1021&ioType=o); [Eloundou and others, 2023](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv); [Frey and Osborne, 2013](https://oms-www.files.svdcdn.com/production/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf) |
| [Registered Nurses](https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/29-1141) | 3,379,720 (May 2025) | +5.6% (2025 to 2035) | 38.1% | None cited | None cited | [BLS OEWS May 2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip); [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=29-1141&ioType=o); [Eloundou and others, 2023](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv) |
| [Cashiers](https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/41-2011) | 3,089,410 (May 2025) | -6.5% (2025 to 2035) | 36% | 0.97 | None cited | [BLS OEWS May 2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip); [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=41-2011&ioType=o); [Eloundou and others, 2023](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv); [Frey and Osborne, 2013](https://oms-www.files.svdcdn.com/production/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf) |
| [Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand](https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/53-7062) | 2,950,280 (May 2025) | +1.8% (2025 to 2035) | 6% | 0.85 | None cited | [BLS OEWS May 2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip); [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=53-7062&ioType=o); [Eloundou and others, 2023](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv); [Frey and Osborne, 2013](https://oms-www.files.svdcdn.com/production/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf) |
| [Stockers and Order Fillers](https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/53-7065) | 2,833,810 (May 2025) | +8.9% (2025 to 2035) | 19.1% | 0.64 | None cited | [BLS OEWS May 2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip); [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=53-7065&ioType=o); [Eloundou and others, 2023](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv); [Frey and Osborne, 2013](https://oms-www.files.svdcdn.com/production/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf) |
| [Customer Service Representatives](https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/43-4051) | 2,595,750 (May 2025) | -5.3% (2025 to 2035) | 70.5% | 0.55 | None cited | [BLS OEWS May 2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip); [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=43-4051&ioType=o); [Eloundou and others, 2023](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv); [Frey and Osborne, 2013](https://oms-www.files.svdcdn.com/production/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf) |
| [Office Clerks, General](https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/43-9061) | 2,464,940 (May 2025) | -6% (2025 to 2035) | 50% | 0.96 | 46% (office and administrative support occupations) | [BLS OEWS May 2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip); [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=43-9061&ioType=o); [Eloundou and others, 2023](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv); [Frey and Osborne, 2013](https://oms-www.files.svdcdn.com/production/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf); [Goldman Sachs, 2023](https://www.gspublishing.com/content/research/en/reports/2023/03/27/d64e052b-0f6e-45d7-967b-d7be35fabd16.pdf) |
| [Waiters and Waitresses](https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/35-3031) | 2,270,910 (May 2025) | +2% (2025 to 2035) | 22.4% | 0.94 | None cited | [BLS OEWS May 2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip); [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=35-3031&ioType=o); [Eloundou and others, 2023](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv); [Frey and Osborne, 2013](https://oms-www.files.svdcdn.com/production/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf) |
| [Janitors and Building Cleaners](https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/37-2011) | 2,209,760 (May 2025) | +2.2% (2025 to 2035) | 2.8% | 0.66 | None cited | [BLS OEWS May 2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip); [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=37-2011&ioType=o); [Eloundou and others, 2023](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv); [Frey and Osborne, 2013](https://oms-www.files.svdcdn.com/production/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf) |
| [Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers](https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/53-3032) | 2,062,040 (May 2025) | +3.8% (2025 to 2035) | 17.3% | 0.79 | None cited | [BLS OEWS May 2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip); [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=53-3032&ioType=o); [Eloundou and others, 2023](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv); [Frey and Osborne, 2013](https://oms-www.files.svdcdn.com/production/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf) |
| [Secretaries and Administrative Assistants](https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/43-6014) | 1,706,790 (May 2025) | -6% (2025 to 2035) | 56.7% | 0.96 | 46% (office and administrative support occupations) | [BLS OEWS May 2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip); [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=43-6014&ioType=o); [Eloundou and others, 2023](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv); [Frey and Osborne, 2013](https://oms-www.files.svdcdn.com/production/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf); [Goldman Sachs, 2023](https://www.gspublishing.com/content/research/en/reports/2023/03/27/d64e052b-0f6e-45d7-967b-d7be35fabd16.pdf) |
| [Software Developers](https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/15-1252) | 1,687,890 (May 2025) | +10.2% (2025 to 2035) | 44.7% | None cited | 29% (computer and mathematical occupations) | [BLS OEWS May 2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip); [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=15-1252&ioType=o); [Eloundou and others, 2023](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv); [Goldman Sachs, 2023](https://www.gspublishing.com/content/research/en/reports/2023/03/27/d64e052b-0f6e-45d7-967b-d7be35fabd16.pdf) |
| [Maintenance and Repair Workers, General](https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/49-9071) | 1,529,700 (May 2025) | +4.2% (2025 to 2035) | 7.8% | 0.64 | None cited | [BLS OEWS May 2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip); [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=49-9071&ioType=o); [Eloundou and others, 2023](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv); [Frey and Osborne, 2013](https://oms-www.files.svdcdn.com/production/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf) |
| [Accountants and Auditors](https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/13-2011) | 1,449,500 (May 2025) | +5% (2025 to 2035) | 52% | 0.94 | None cited | [BLS OEWS May 2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip); [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=13-2011&ioType=o); [Eloundou and others, 2023](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv); [Frey and Osborne, 2013](https://oms-www.files.svdcdn.com/production/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf) |
| [Nursing Assistants](https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/31-1131) | 1,448,910 (May 2025) | +2.6% (2025 to 2035) | 13.6% | None cited | None cited | [BLS OEWS May 2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip); [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=31-1131&ioType=o); [Eloundou and others, 2023](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv) |
| [First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers](https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/43-1011) | 1,436,680 (May 2025) | +0.1% (2025 to 2035) | 53.1% | None cited | None cited | [BLS OEWS May 2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip); [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=43-1011&ioType=o); [Eloundou and others, 2023](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv) |
| [Cooks, Restaurant](https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/35-2014) | 1,409,890 (May 2025) | +12.1% (2025 to 2035) | 12.2% | 0.96 | None cited | [BLS OEWS May 2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip); [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=35-2014&ioType=o); [Eloundou and others, 2023](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv); [Frey and Osborne, 2013](https://oms-www.files.svdcdn.com/production/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf) |
| [Elementary School Teachers, Except Special Education](https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/25-2021) | 1,388,390 (May 2025) | -0.4% (2025 to 2035) | 31.1% | 0.0044 | None cited | [BLS OEWS May 2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip); [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=25-2021&ioType=o); [Eloundou and others, 2023](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv); [Frey and Osborne, 2013](https://oms-www.files.svdcdn.com/production/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf) |
| [Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks](https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/43-3031) | 1,373,680 (May 2025) | -5.6% (2025 to 2035) | 31.4% | 0.98 | None cited | [BLS OEWS May 2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip); [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=43-3031&ioType=o); [Eloundou and others, 2023](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv); [Frey and Osborne, 2013](https://oms-www.files.svdcdn.com/production/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf) |
| [Security Guards](https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/33-9032) | 1,283,470 (May 2025) | +0.9% (2025 to 2035) | 25% | 0.84 | None cited | [BLS OEWS May 2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip); [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=33-9032&ioType=o); [Eloundou and others, 2023](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv); [Frey and Osborne, 2013](https://oms-www.files.svdcdn.com/production/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf) |
| [Sales Representatives of Services, Except Advertising, Insurance, Financial Services, and Travel](https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/41-3091) | 1,256,010 (May 2025) | +2.7% (2025 to 2035) | 56.7% | None cited | None cited | [BLS OEWS May 2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip); [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=41-3091&ioType=o); [Eloundou and others, 2023](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv) |
| [Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products](https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/41-4012) | 1,238,190 (May 2025) | -0.9% (2025 to 2035) | 70.7% | None cited | None cited | [BLS OEWS May 2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip); [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=41-4012&ioType=o); [Eloundou and others, 2023](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv) |
| [First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers](https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/35-1012) | 1,223,240 (May 2025) | +5.4% (2025 to 2035) | 25.6% | None cited | None cited | [BLS OEWS May 2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm25nat.zip); [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35](https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=35-1012&ioType=o); [Eloundou and others, 2023](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv) |

## How this list was made

- Rows are the 25 timelines with the most jobs in the May 2025 BLS OEWS survey, largest first. The order is by size only: no column is a score, and the studies are never combined.
- BLS projected change: the BLS Employment Projections 2025-35 figure for the occupation, which counts all jobs including the self-employed. BLS describes a change under 1 percent either way as little or no change.
- Eloundou and others (2023): the share of the job's tasks where a large language model could cut the time a person needs by at least half, with tasks that also need software built on the model counted at half weight (their human-rated beta measure).
- Frey and Osborne (2013): their estimate of the probability that the whole occupation could be computerised, over "some unspecified number of years, perhaps a decade or two".
- Goldman Sachs (2023): the share of work tasks exposed to automation by AI across the job's whole occupational group in the US, not this job alone.
- "None cited" means we hold no figure from that source for the job. Not a forecast of job losses: an exposure figure says what AI could touch, not how many jobs will go.

## What these numbers cannot tell you

- Exposure is not replacement. A job with highly exposed tasks can grow if the work left over is in demand; BLS projections already weigh that for the decade to 2035.
- BLS OEWS counts wage and salary jobs; BLS projections count all jobs, so the two are not compared here.

## Sources

- [BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS), May 2025](https://www.bls.gov/oes/tables.htm)
- [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35, National Employment Matrix](https://www.bls.gov/emp/)
- [Eloundou, Manning, Mishkin and Rock (2023), "GPTs are GPTs", occupation-level data](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs/blob/main/data/occ_level.csv)
- [Frey and Osborne (2013), "The Future of Employment", appendix](https://oms-www.files.svdcdn.com/production/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf)
- [Briggs and Kodnani (2023), "The Potentially Large Effects of Artificial Intelligence on Economic Growth", Goldman Sachs, Exhibit 5](https://www.gspublishing.com/content/research/en/reports/2023/03/27/d64e052b-0f6e-45d7-967b-d7be35fabd16.pdf)
- [Michael J. Handel, BLS, Monthly Labor Review, July 2022: "Growth trends for selected occupations considered at risk from automation"](https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2022/article/growth-trends-for-selected-occupations-considered-at-risk-from-automation.htm)
- [Christine Machovec, Michael J. Rieley and Emily Rolen, BLS, Monthly Labor Review, February 2025: "Incorporating AI impacts in BLS employment projections: occupational case studies"](https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2025/article/incorporating-ai-impacts-in-bls-employment-projections.htm)
- Each row also names the exact sources for its own figures.

## Explore these jobs by industry

- [Admin & Office](https://futurehistory.earth/family/admin)
- [Food Service](https://futurehistory.earth/family/food-service)
- [Sales](https://futurehistory.earth/family/sales)
- [Transportation](https://futurehistory.earth/family/transportation)
- [Business & Finance](https://futurehistory.earth/family/business)
- [Cleaning & Grounds](https://futurehistory.earth/family/cleaning-grounds)

All trends and data stories: https://futurehistory.earth/trends