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Time Machine

Welders, Cutters, Solderers, and Brazers

Scrub through 155years of this role's history, from when it first emerged, through every wave of technology that reshaped it, to the cited projections for where it's heading next.

2026drag to travel through time
19001925195019752000now
Country
2026
Known today as Welders, Cutters, Solderers, and Brazers (BLS SOC 51-4121)
US Employment
416K
OEWS is a point-in-time survey snapshot, not a continuous time series; BLS advises against using it for year-over-year trend comparison.
Median Annual Wage
$53,750
≈ $52,372 in 2024 dollars
Each dot is a cited figure over time; the dotted line only links them (values between aren't measured). Hollow dots are estimates.
Tools of the era

The tools that defined the work

Select an era to see how it reshaped the work.

  • Carbon arc and bare metal electrode (experimental era)

    The first arc welding processes — de Méritens carbon arc (1881), Benardos-Olszewski carbon arc of metal (1885-87), Slavyanov metal electrode (1888) — produced results that were technically welds but practically unreliable. Without atmospheric shielding, the molten pool absorbed oxygen and nitrogen from the air, making the weld brittle and porous. The bare-wire deposit was unpredictable under production conditions. The early welders who used these processes were experimenters and repairers rather than production workers; the skill was in managing an unstable process well enough to produce a joint that held. The Kjellberg coated electrode (ESAB, founded 1904) pointed the way forward: wrap the wire in mineral compounds that would generate a protective gas shield and slag layer as they burned. By 1912 Strohmenger had a heavily coated electrode in commercial production, though at too high a cost for broad adoption.

    Effect on the work

    This era established arc welding as a recognizable craft but not yet an industrial one. The welding workforce was small — probably tens of thousands in the US by WWI — concentrated in shipyards and heavy industry repair shops where riveted joints were being supplemented or replaced.

    Work toolChanging equipment
  • SMAW shielded metal arc welding — extruded electrode coat (1927)

    The 1927 development of an extrusion process for electrode coating changed everything. For the first time, electrode manufacturers could produce complex multi-compound mineral coatings at industrial scale and controlled cost. The coated electrode — a steel core wire wrapped in a precisely formulated blend of silicates, carbonates, and alloying agents — generated its own shielding gas and slag layer as it burned, protecting the molten pool from the atmosphere. The resulting SMAW process (stick welding) was fast, portable, and trainable. It required no external gas supply — just a power source, an electrode, and a trained pair of hands. By the late 1920s, Liberty Ship design was being adapted to accommodate all-welded hulls rather than riveted ones; by WWII, welding had replaced riveting as the primary hull-joining method in US shipyards. The workforce expanded explosively to meet war demand, including the crash-trained welders — "Wendy the Welder" — who filled shipyard production lines.

    Effect on the work

    The extruded electrode enabled SMAW to become an industrial production method rather than a repair technique. The US welding workforce grew from roughly 100,000 (1920) to an estimated 350,000 (1940) to a WWII peak of perhaps 900,000 — almost entirely on the strength of SMAW's deployability at scale.

    Work toolChanging equipment
  • GTAW (TIG, 1941) and GMAW (MIG, 1948) — inert-gas shielded processes

    Two new welding processes introduced in the 1940s opened the profession to materials and applications that SMAW could not reliably handle. Gas tungsten arc welding (GTAW, or TIG) was patented by Russell Meredith at Northrop Aircraft in 1941 for welding the magnesium airframe of the experimental XP-56 aircraft. TIG uses a non-consumable tungsten electrode and an inert gas shield to protect the weld pool; the filler rod is fed separately by the welder's free hand. TIG produces exceptional weld quality on aluminum, stainless steel, and titanium — the materials of aerospace — and required a level of dexterity and concentration that made it the prestige process of the craft. Gas metal arc welding (GMAW, or MIG) was developed by the Battelle Memorial Institute in 1948 using a continuously fed wire electrode; the 1953 adaptation to carbon dioxide shielding gas made MIG economically viable for steel welding. MIG is faster than SMAW, produces less smoke, and is significantly easier to learn. For auto body sheet metal, MIG became the dominant process by the 1960s — and, critically, the process that robotic welding cells would use when they arrived a decade later.

    Effect on the work

    TIG and MIG expanded the materials welders could work with and opened aerospace manufacturing to the welding trade. TIG created a skill tier that commanded wage premiums. MIG, by being teachable and fast, also enabled the eventual robotic substitution it would power.

    Work toolChanging equipment
  • Unimate at GM (1961) — industrial welding robots begin (spot welding only)

    On June 13, 1961, a 4,000-pound hydraulic arm called Unimate was installed on the assembly line at General Motors' Inland Fisher Guide Plant in Ewing Township, New Jersey. Designed by George Devol and commercialized by Joseph Engelberger through Unimation, the Unimate performed spot welding of auto body parts and transfer of die castings. Spot welding — pressing two overlapping steel panels between copper electrodes and passing a high current through them until they fuse — is geometrically simple and highly repetitive, making it ideal for early teach-and-playback robot programming. For the first two decades, robotic welding was confined to this corner of the craft. Continuous arc welding of structural members, pipe, or complex geometry remained entirely manual. The Fanuc-GM joint venture (Fanuc Robotics) was formed in 1982, accelerating robot adoption in US auto plants through the 1980s.

    Effect on the work

    Robotic spot welding began displacing automotive assembly welders in the 1970s and 1980s — but only in the spot-weld-on-an-assembly-line segment. Structural welders, pipe welders, and job-shop fabricators were entirely unaffected. The net effect on total welding employment was modest through 1985; the displacement was concentrated in a specific sector of a large and varied workforce.

    Work toolChanging equipment
  • Automotive spot welding ~95% robotic — Fanuc, Yaskawa Motoman, ABB dominate

    Through the 1980s and 1990s, robotic spot welding went from a novelty to the dominant method in automotive body assembly. By the early 1990s, OEM auto plants were running body welding lines that were 90-95% robotic — a complete transformation of one of the largest single applications of welding labor in US manufacturing. The robots came primarily from three suppliers: Fanuc (Japan, with GM relationship), Yaskawa Motoman (Japan), and ABB (Sweden/Switzerland), later joined by KUKA (Germany). Simultaneously, robot arc welding — continuous bead welding — began growing as programming and sensing improved. By 2005, more than 120,000 robots were in use in North American industry, approximately half of them for welding. The human welding workforce remained large because structural, field, pipe, and custom fabrication work was still entirely manual.

    Effect on the work

    The automotive body-welding workforce was largely displaced from assembly plants in this era, but many welders found work in adjacent applications — truck and heavy equipment manufacturing, structural steel fabrication, bridge construction — that had not been automated. The total welding workforce declined from its 1980 peak but stabilized above 400,000.

    Work toolChanging equipment
  • Digital inverter welders (Lincoln PowerWave, Miller) + cobots enter fab shops

    The digital inverter power supply — replacing the heavy transformer-based welders of the mid-20th century with compact, precise electronics — transformed the welder's primary tool. Lincoln Electric's PowerWave series and Miller Electric's inverter welders introduced microprocessor control of output waveform, enabling process modes (pulse MIG, AC TIG, RMD) that had previously required specialized equipment. A single machine could now handle multiple processes and materials with parameter recall. Simultaneously, collaborative robots (cobots) began entering small-to-mid-size fabrication shops — lighter, lower-cost systems deployable without traditional robot safety fencing. Lincoln Electric and Miller welding cobot systems brought robotic arc welding within reach of job shops. Cobot welding expanded the automation frontier into structural and fabrication work, though complex joint geometries, tack-fitting, and field conditions still required human welders.

    Effect on the work

    Inverter welders improved portable field-welding capability. Cobots began penetrating job-shop fabrication but remained limited to well-fixtured, repeating joints. The segment of welding work that was automatable continued to grow; the segment that was not — field, repair, complex geometry, short-run — held steady.

    Work toolChanging equipment
  • AI arc tracking + orbital pipe robots + IIJA infrastructure demand (2021)

    The most recent era brought incremental automation into previously robot-resistant segments: orbital welding machines for pipe (a motorized head that travels around the pipe's circumference while the welder monitors parameters), adaptive arc-tracking systems that use vision or electrical feedback to follow irregular joint geometries, and AI-assisted parameter optimization. Yet the fundamental manual-weld segments remained intact. The Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (IIJA, 2021) committed $27.5 billion through the Bridge Formula Program specifically, and bridge welding — structural steel or reinforcing bar — remains a manual process. The AWS Certified Welding Inspector program (founded 1976, 100,000+ CWIs certified) certifies human inspectors, not machines. The 2023-2024 welder shortage of approximately 80,000 documented by AWS reflected this structural demand: the automatable corner of welding was automated long ago; the remaining workforce is needed precisely where robots cannot reach.

    Effect on the work

    BLS projects +2.2% employment growth 2024-2034 — modest but positive, defying earlier projections of decline. The welder shortage (approximately 80,000 unfilled positions in 2023-2024) and sustained IIJA infrastructure demand suggest the occupation has stabilized at a floor defined by field welding, pipeline welding, repair welding, custom fabrication, and shipbuilding.

    Work toolChanging equipment
Projection cone · present → 2034

What credible sources project

Scrub the slider past now to anchor each scenario on the scrubber. The spread is the range of futures credible sources project for this role.

Employment outlook
Projected change in the number of people doing this work.
AWS welder shortage / IIJA infrastructure demand scenario
2030
+8%
AWS and industry analysts documented a shortage of approximately 80,000 welders in 2023-2024 — unfilled positions representing roughly 17% of the total workforce. The shortage reflects: (a) retirement of experienced welders (median age above the national workforce average), (b) declining enrollment in welding trade programs, and (c) IIJA infrastructure demand ($27.5B Bridge Formula Program, $65B power grid upgrades, water infrastructure) requiring field-certified welders. If the shortage materializes into sustained wage pressure and program enrollment growth, employment could increase 6-10% above BLS baseline by 2030. This is the optimistic tail, contingent on infrastructure spending reaching full deployment speed and training pipelines responding.
BLS National Employment Matrix 2024-34
2034
+2%
BLS Employment Projections — industry-occupation matrix + labor productivity assumptions. The 2024-34 cycle projects SOC 51-4121 at +2.2% growth: baseline 457,300 (2024), projected 467,200 (2034), a net gain of 9,900 jobs over the decade. BLS characterizes this as "slower than average" growth. Annual job openings projected at 45,600, combining modest net growth with replacement demand from retirements and occupational transfers. The projection is notably more optimistic than Frey & Osborne's 2013 automation-risk assessment would suggest, reflecting the durability of the manual-weld segments that have resisted automation for 40+ years.
BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook 2024-34
2034
+2%
BLS OOH "slower than average" characterization for 51-4121. O*NET lists 45,600 projected annual openings 2024-2034. The OOH notes that while robots have automated much spot welding in automotive manufacturing, other industries continue to need skilled welders and the welder shortage has kept employment from declining. Median annual wage: $51,000 ($24.52/hr) as of May 2024. The OOH flags demand driven by infrastructure projects, oil and natural gas pipelines, and the construction sector.
AI task exposure
Share of the role’s tasks that researchers estimate AI can do. This is a measure of task exposure, not a forecast of jobs lost.
Frey & Osborne (2013)
2033
83%
of tasks
Gaussian-process classifier on O*NET task features. Frey & Osborne (2013) assigned Welders, Cutters, Solderers, and Brazers a probability of computerization of approximately 0.83 — in the high-risk tier of the 702-occupation dataset, vindicating the automotive spot-welding substitution already underway. The bottleneck argument: the occupation scores low on social intelligence and creative originality, making it, by F&O's model, exposed to robotic substitution. The -83% figure represents the implied employment ceiling if the F&O probability were fully realized, which F&O did not claim. In practice, employment stabilized above 400,000 — F&O were directionally correct about the automatable portion (spot welding in automotive) but significantly overestimated the reach of automation into field, repair, and structural welding. F&O probability of 0.83 is cited from secondary literature; the exact appendix entry was not independently re-extracted from the primary PDF.
Eloundou et al. — "GPTs are GPTs" (2023)
2028
1%
of tasks
GPT-4 task-by-task LLM exposure labeling on O*NET tasks for 51-4121. Welders score very low on LLM exposure because the core tasks — setting up equipment, reading weld blueprints, manipulating electrodes, managing heat input, inspecting welds visually — are physical and perceptual, not text-based. The important distinction from Frey & Osborne: the displacement threat to welders is from robotics and computer vision, not from large language models. Eloundou's framework measures LLM exposure specifically; robotic welding is a different technology category. The -1% estimate represents near-term change from AI-assisted administrative tasks (weld procedure documentation, WPS/PQR generation, quality record management) rather than from the physical welding function.
Today, in this role

What's shifting in the work right now

The historical view above shows how this role has moved. This is the present-day detail: which AI tools are picking up which tasks, where the edge still is, and the natural directions this work can grow.

What's changing in your day

Three parts of your work where AI is already doing real lifting, and what stays yours.

AI is sitting alongside you herePerform manual arc, MIG, TIG, or stick welding on components that fall outside standard robotic cell parameters: irregular geometry, repair work, field installation, small batch runs, and weld positions (vertical, overhead, pipe) where cobot fixturing is impractical.

Perform manual arc, MIG, TIG, or stick welding on components that fall outside standard robotic cell parameters: irregular geometry, repair work, field installation, small batch runs, and weld positions (vertical, overhead, pipe) where cobot fixturing is impractical.[1],[7]

Where your edge is

Pursue AWS certifications in the highest-barrier weld processes: pipe (6G position), TIG on stainless and exotic alloys, and structural code welding to AWS D1.1. These are the passes robotic systems handle last and command the highest per-hour wages. Document every procedure qualification record (PQR) you pass.

AI is sitting alongside you herePerform manual and semi-automated thermal cutting operations (plasma arc, oxy-fuel, carbon arc gouging) for joint preparation, plate bevel, pipe saddle cutting, and demolition or field-repair cuts that fall outside CNC table parameters.

Perform manual and semi-automated thermal cutting operations (plasma arc, oxy-fuel, carbon arc gouging) for joint preparation, plate bevel, pipe saddle cutting, and demolition or field-repair cuts that fall outside CNC table parameters.[1]

Where your edge is

Learn to program CNC plasma tables (Hypertherm ProNest or equivalent) in addition to manual torch work. Shops that run both manual and CNC cutting value the operator who can bridge both worlds: set up a table program, then pick up the hand torch for the non-standard cuts the program cannot reach.

AI is sitting alongside you hereOperate and review output from weld-defect detection systems (camera-based vision inspection, radiographic testing, ultrasonic testing): interpret AI-flagged indications against code acceptance criteria and document accept/reject decisions with the supporting test record.

Operate and review output from weld-defect detection systems (camera-based vision inspection, radiographic testing, ultrasonic testing): interpret AI-flagged indications against code acceptance criteria and document accept/reject decisions with the supporting test record.[16],[17]

Where your edge is

Pursue an NDT Level II qualification (visual, MT, PT, or UT) alongside your welding certifications. The combination of weld process knowledge and NDT capability places you squarely in the quality-engineering pipeline and makes you valuable to any shop deploying AI-assisted inspection systems.

Where this role is heading

Natural next steps for someone with your foundation: not exits, evolutions.

A direction you could grow

Industrial Engineering Technologists and Technicians

Welders who acquire cobot programming skills (Lincoln Cooper, Vectis, FANUC CRX), earn the AWS Certified Robotic Arc Welding Technician (CRAW-T) credential, and learn to read manufacturing engineering drawings are qualified for Industrial Engineering Technologist roles focused on welding process improvement, automation deployment, and work-cell layout. Welding robot programmers earn a median of $100,929 (Salary.com, May 2026) -- nearly double the production welder median. The path requires a CWI credential as a prerequisite for CRAW-T, then applied robotics training.

What you'd add
  • · AWS Certified Welding Inspector (CWI) -- prerequisite for CRAW-Technician and required for most quality-engineering roles
  • · AWS Certified Robotic Arc Welding Technician (CRAW-T) -- covers robot programming, troubleshooting, and optimization
  • · Offline robot programming software (FANUC ROBOGUIDE, ABB RobotStudio, or Lincoln Electric PolyScope)
  • · Engineering drawing interpretation: GD&T symbols, tolerance stack-up, weld symbols per AWS A2.4
  • · Lean manufacturing fundamentals (cycle time, OEE, 5S) for automation deployment and continuous improvement
What it takesSome new skills to pick up
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The data behind this timeline

On record since1881
Latest tracked employment416,210 (US, 2025)
Latest median pay$53,750 (2025)
Outlook+2% by 2034 (BLS National Employment Matrix 2024-34)
View all 29 cited data points
YearUS employmentMedian annual paySource
1920100,000n/aESTIMATE
1940350,000n/aESTIMATE
1944900,000$2,500ESTIMATE
1960500,000n/aESTIMATE
1980700,000$22,000ESTIMATE
2000529,000$30,000BLS-OEWS
2003354,300$29,640BLS-OEWS
2004344,970$30,620BLS-OEWS
2005358,050$30,990BLS-OEWS
2006376,630$31,400BLS-OEWS
2007385,740$32,270BLS-OEWS
2008392,520$33,560BLS-OEWS
2009357,740$34,750BLS-OEWS
2010314,260$35,450BLS-OEWS
2011316,290$35,920BLS-OEWS
2012329,710$36,300BLS-OEWS
2013352,250$36,720BLS-OEWS
2014369,610$37,420BLS-OEWS
2015386,240$38,150BLS-OEWS
2016382,730$39,390BLS-OEWS
2017377,250$40,240BLS-OEWS
2018389,190$41,380BLS-OEWS
2019410,750$42,490BLS-OEWS
2020397,550$44,190BLS-OEWS
2021396,000$47,010BLS-OEWS
2022408,990$47,540BLS-OEWS
2023421,730$48,940BLS-OEWS
2024457,300$51,000BLS-OEWS
2025416,210$53,750BLS-OEWS
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