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Arbitrators and mediators

Official title Arbitrators, Mediators, and Conciliators (SOC 23-1022)

Also called Arbitrator, Mediator, Conciliator, Neutral, ADR specialist

In brief

In May 2025, BLS counted 9,210 US arbitrators and mediators, with median pay of $75,530 a year. Of the BLS counts since 2021, the May 2025 count is the highest. The earliest figure here is an estimate of 150 from 1920, not measured the same way as today's count. The last full technology era for arbitrators and mediators: Virtual hearing platforms + document AI review, 2015 to 2022.

What the sources say

Official outlook

BLS projects employment to grow 4.7% from 2025 to 2035.

BLS Employment Projections 2025-35

AI exposure studies

Data as of BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025-35. BLS publishes these counts as yearly survey snapshots and cautions against reading them as a precise trend.

Last updated .

Cite this page
APA

Future History. (2026, October 11). Arbitrators and mediators: jobs and pay since 1920 [Data set; data as of BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025-35]. https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/23-1022

Chicago

Future History. "Arbitrators and mediators: jobs and pay since 1920." Data as of BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025-35. Last modified October 11, 2026. https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/23-1022.

BibTeX

@misc{futurehistory_23_1022, author = {{Future History}}, title = {Arbitrators and mediators: jobs and pay since 1920}, year = {2026}, month = oct, howpublished = {\url{https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/23-1022}}, note = {Last updated 2026-10-11. Data as of BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025-35}, }

The access date is today's date on your device.

drag to travel through time
187519001925195019752000now
2026
Known then as Commissioner of Conciliation / Arbitrator (informal government and trade-association neutrals)
Known then as Commissioner of Conciliation (US Conciliation Service, Dept. of Labor)
Known then as Labor Mediator / Labor Arbitrator (FMCS mediators + AAA panel arbitrators)
Known then as Mediator / Arbitrator / Conciliator (ADR expansion era: labor + commercial + family)
Known then as Arbitrators, Mediators, and Conciliators (BLS SOC 23-1022)
Known today as Arbitrators, Mediators, and Conciliators (BLS SOC 23-1022)
Projected to still be called Arbitrators, Mediators, and Conciliators (BLS SOC 23-1022)
Data from the May 2025 survey
US Employment
9K
Est.

Stated in source: BLS OEWS

Official statistic
Report an error
Median Annual Wage
$75,530
Est.

≈ $73,594 in 2024 prices (derived by us, CPI-adjusted)

Official statistic
Report an error
Beat · 1886

Massachusetts establishes the first permanent state Board of Arbitration and Conciliation in the United States, authorized to intervene in labor disputes between employers and employees. New York follows the same year. These state boards, staffed by small numbers of salaried commissioners, are the first institutional employers of professional neutrals in American history.

Beat · 1913

Congress establishes the Department of Labor on March 4, 1913, with an explicit mandate to act as mediator in labor disputes "whenever the interests of industrial peace may require." Secretary William B. Wilson organizes a small conciliation bureau within his own office, appointing "Commissioners of Conciliation" who become the first federally employed professional mediators. The service is underfunded for its first decade but builds a reputation for competence and impartiality.

Beat · 1925

President Calvin Coolidge signs the United States Arbitration Act (now the Federal Arbitration Act) on February 12, 1925, overturning courts' longstanding refusal to enforce arbitration agreements and placing them on the same legal footing as other contracts. The Act was designed primarily for maritime and commercial disputes, where overcrowded federal courts had made litigation painfully slow. The FAA lays the legal foundation for the modern commercial arbitration industry.

Beat · 1926

The American Arbitration Association is founded through the merger of three predecessor organizations: the Arbitration Society of America, the Arbitration Foundation, and the Arbitration Conference. Its first National Panel of Arbitrators has 480 members. The AAA publishes the first Code of Arbitration Practice and Procedure in 1931 and establishes the Voluntary Labor Arbitration Tribunal in 1937 in response to the surge in collective bargaining agreements following the National Labor Relations Act of 1935.

Beat · 1947

The Taft-Hartley Act (Labor Management Relations Act) creates the Federal Mediation and Conciliation Service as an independent agency, removing labor mediation from the Department of Labor and placing it outside the influence of any single department. The first FMCS director, Cyrus Ching, takes office on August 22, 1947. In its first year the FMCS handles 15,273 disputes and 1,296 strikes. The US Conciliation Service, which had employed up to 200 commissioners at its wartime peak, is dissolved.

Beat · 1960

The Supreme Court issues the Steelworkers Trilogy (United Steelworkers v. American Manufacturing, United Steelworkers v. Warrior and Gulf Navigation, United Steelworkers v. Enterprise Wheel and Car Corp.), establishing arbitration as the preferred method for resolving labor disputes under collective bargaining agreements. The decisions create strong federal policy favoring arbitration and substantially expand the caseload for labor arbitrators.

Beat · 1976

Harvard Law Professor Frank E. A. Sander introduces the "multi-door courthouse" concept at the Pound Conference on the Causes of Popular Dissatisfaction with the Administration of Justice. Sander proposes that courts offer a menu of dispute resolution options, with mediation as a primary pathway for many cases. The concept is influential in driving the 1980s expansion of court-connected mediation programs across the United States.

Beat · 1979

Retired Orange County Superior Court Judge H. Warren Knight launches JAMS (Judicial Arbitration and Mediation Services) from a friend's law office in January 1979. The concept of charging for ADR services already available free through courts faces initial skepticism. JAMS expands through California during the 1980s and nationally through a 1994 merger with Endispute of Washington D.C., becoming the largest private ADR provider in the United States. By 2025, JAMS has 29 locations, 500+ panelists, and receives nearly 22,000 new case filings per year.

Beat · 1991

The Supreme Court rules in Gilmer v. Interstate/Johnson Lane Corp. that the Federal Arbitration Act requires enforcement of a pre-dispute arbitration clause for Age Discrimination in Employment Act claims. The decision opens the door to mandatory pre-dispute employment arbitration clauses across the private sector. Circuit City Stores v. Adams (2001) extends Gilmer to all forms of statutory employment discrimination, and AT&T Mobility v. Concepcion (2011) upholds class-action waivers in arbitration agreements. This trio of decisions substantially expands the commercial employment arbitration market.

Beat · 1999

The EEOC fully implements its national mediation program in April 1999, following pilot programs in four field offices dating to 1991. In its first year (FY 1999), the program conducts 7,397 mediations with a 65.3% resolution rate, generating $58.6 million in monetary benefits for charging parties. The program grows to a peak of 13,002 mediations in FY 2011 before declining. The EEOC program creates a significant new demand channel for contract mediators and gives government-sector ADR a visible, quantified track record.

Beat · 2003

Colin Rule becomes Director of Online Dispute Resolution for eBay and PayPal, designing and implementing automated negotiation systems that resolve more than 60 million disputes annually, more cases per year than the entire US civil court system. Rule co-founds Modria.com, an ODR platform that Tyler Technologies acquires in 2017 and deploys at 450+ court and government systems. The eBay experience establishes the proof of concept that AI-guided structured negotiation can handle high-volume routine disputes without human mediators, a model that reshapes institutional ADR expectations.

How to read this number

OEWS is a point-in-time survey snapshot, not a continuous time series; BLS advises against using it for year-over-year trend comparison.

Each dot is a cited figure over time; the dotted line only links them (values between aren't measured). Hollow dots are estimates.

Official statistic: Copied by a script from a statistics agency table or a published study's table, not retyped by hand. BLS figures and the forecast and exposure tables are also re-checked against that table on every data run. Researched context: Researched from the cited source rather than copied from it by a script, so it is not machine-checked yet. Spot a mistake? Each figure has a “Report an error” link.

Cited forecasts · present → 2035

Will AI replace arbitrators and mediators? What the research says

Each figure is stated by the named source; we publish no forecasts of our own. Where sources disagree, we show the disagreement rather than an average.

Each figure is stated by the named source; we publish no forecasts of our own. Where sources disagree, the spread is the honest signal.

What published forecasts say
Forecast change in the number of people doing this work, as published by each named source. Bars share one scale on every role, centred on zero and reaching the end at ±30%. Grey marks a small change, 3% or less either way.
BLS Employment Projections 2025-35
→ 2035
+4.7%
BLS National Employment Matrix, 2025-35 cycle, line for SOC 23-1022 (Arbitrators, mediators, and conciliators): 10.5 thousand jobs in 2025, projected 11.0 thousand in 2035, a change of +0.5 thousand (+4.7%). Matrix employment counts all jobs in the occupation, including self-employed workers (9.5% of this occupation in 2025). The average for all occupations in this cycle is +3.5%.
Official statisticReport an error
How exposed is this work to AI (research measures)
Scores as published by each study. Each row says what it measures. These measure what AI could technically do, not forecasts of jobs lost.
Eloundou et al. (2023), "GPTs are GPTs"
2023 study · Share of tasks exposed to LLMs (β, human-rated)
37.1%
of tasks
What this measures

Published occupation-level exposure from the paper's occ_level.csv for O*NET-SOC 23-1022.00 Arbitrators, Mediators, and Conciliators. Shown: human-rated β = 0.371, the share of the occupation's tasks an LLM could do in at least half the time at equal quality, counting tasks that need LLM-powered software at half weight (β = E1 + 0.5 × E2). Other published measures for this occupation: human-rated α (LLM alone) 0.097 and γ (all LLM-assisted) 0.645; GPT-4-rated β 0.5. This measures how much of the work an LLM could touch, not how many jobs disappear.

Official statisticReport an error
Today, in this role

What's changing day to day for arbitrators and mediators

Three parts of your work where AI is already doing real lifting, and what stays yours.

AI is taking this onOversee AI-powered ODR platforms (Modria, AAA ODR) for routine low-value consumer and commercial disputes: configure automated negotiation parameters, review cases that the AI workflow escalates as unresolvable, apply neutral judgment to edge cases outside the platform's resolution logic, and ensure the ODR process complies with applicable procedural fairness standards.

Oversee AI-powered ODR platforms (Modria, AAA ODR) for routine low-value consumer and commercial disputes: configure automated negotiation parameters, review cases that the AI workflow escalates as unresolvable, apply neutral judgment to edge cases outside the platform's resolution logic, and ensure the ODR process complies with applicable procedural fairness standards.[5],[4],[10]

Where your edge is

Develop ODR platform governance expertise, configuring Modria/Tyler or AAA ODR parameters, understanding algorithmic fairness considerations, and designing escalation criteria. As routine disputes migrate to AI platforms, the human neutral's value concentrates in: (1) reviewing edge cases the algorithm cannot resolve; (2) auditing ODR outcomes for systemic bias; (3) handling complex disputes that require live facilitation.

AI is sitting alongside you hereResearch applicable laws, regulations, ADR rules, and precedent arbitration decisions to prepare for hearings

Research applicable laws, regulations, ADR rules, and precedent arbitration decisions to prepare for hearings; use AI legal research tools (CoCounsel, Lexis+) to survey relevant case law and statutory frameworks; consult Lex Machina analytics to understand damages patterns in comparable disputes; verify all AI-surfaced citations before relying on them in a hearing or written decision.[14],[13],[11]

Where your edge is

Master structured legal research prompting: specify applicable ADR rules (AAA, JAMS, ICC), jurisdiction, and the specific legal question. Always Shepard's or KeyCite every AI-returned citation. Lex Machina analytics on comparable arbitration outcomes are particularly valuable for calibrating settlement ranges: invest in understanding how to read damages distribution data.

AI is sitting alongside you hereEvaluate submitted evidence (contracts, claim applications, medical records, financial statements, expert reports) by using AI document-analysis tools to produce structured summaries and flag inconsistencies

Evaluate submitted evidence (contracts, claim applications, medical records, financial statements, expert reports) by using AI document-analysis tools to produce structured summaries and flag inconsistencies; verify AI-extracted timelines and disputed facts; apply professional judgment to determine the weight and admissibility of evidence in the proceeding.[12],[2]

Where your edge is

Shift from document volume to document quality control. AI can summarize hundreds of pages of financial records in minutes: the neutral's value is in setting the extraction criteria, verifying that key facts were not omitted, and applying the legal standard for evidentiary weight. Develop a structured review protocol: AI output → disputed-fact matrix → your independent assessment.

Where arbitrators and mediators go next

Natural next steps for someone with your foundation: not exits, evolutions.

What each move takes

A direction you could grow

Compliance Officers

ADR practitioners with labor and employment or regulatory dispute backgrounds frequently pivot to in-house compliance officer roles. The skills transfer directly: impartial investigation of internal grievances, policy interpretation, documentation of findings, and recommendation of remedial action mirror the neutral's core toolkit. Corporate compliance functions increasingly use internal ADR mechanisms (ombudsperson programs, workplace mediation) to resolve employee disputes before they escalate to litigation or regulatory complaints. AI is accelerating this shift by automating routine grievance intake, making the human neutral's conflict-resolution expertise the differentiating function.

What you'd add
  • · Regulatory domain expertise (employment law, EEOC, NLRA, OSHA, or industry-specific)
  • · Internal investigation methodology and documentation standards
  • · GRC platform fluency (Navex, Archer, ServiceNow GRC)
  • · Ombudsperson program design and administration (IOA Standards of Practice)
What it takesSome new skills to pick up
Tools of the era

How has the work of arbitrators and mediators changed since 1865?

The tools that defined the work, one line per era. Select an era to see how it reshaped the work.

  • In-person oral procedure + shorthand / stenography

    The first generation of professional neutrals worked entirely through face-to-face conversation and oral testimony. The primary technology was the shorthand record: a stenographer transcribed proceedings that could run for days, producing a written record that the arbitrator or mediator could review before issuing a decision. The Pitman and Gregg shorthand systems, widely adopted in commercial and legal practice from the 1870s onward, gave arbitration proceedings a level of documentary accountability that informal oral agreements lacked. Commissioners of Conciliation in the federal Conciliation Service relied on their personal authority and persuasive skill; no external tool augmented the core dialogue.

  • Written arbitration clause + AAA/FMCS institutional rules

    The Federal Arbitration Act of 1925 made written arbitration agreements enforceable in federal courts for the first time, transforming arbitration from a gentlemen's agreement into a contractually binding process. The American Arbitration Association, founded in 1926 through a merger of three predecessor organizations, published the first Code of Arbitration Practice and Procedure in 1931 and a companion Code of Ethics for Arbitrators. These procedural tools, not physical technology, were the era-defining instruments: they gave commercial and labor arbitrators a shared framework that standardized the work and made outcomes more predictable. The FMCS, created in 1947, gave federal mediators an independent institutional home and a body of professional norms.

    Effect on the work

    The institutionalization of ADR rules expanded the market for professional neutrals substantially: the AAA's first National Panel of Arbitrators had hundreds of members at its 1926 founding; by the late 1930s the Voluntary Labor Arbitration Tribunal was handling a rapidly growing labor caseload after the National Labor Relations Act of 1935.

  • Photocopier + telephone + portable tape recorder (pre-ADR-software era)

    The practical toolset of the 1970s-era mediator was the photocopier (to manage documentary evidence), the telephone (for shuttle diplomacy between parties who had gone home for the night), and the portable tape recorder (as an alternative to stenographic transcription in informal settings). These tools expanded the geographic range of a single mediator: FMCS mediators could manage multi-location disputes by phone and mail in ways that would have required physical travel in the 1940s. The Pound Conference of 1976 launched the formal ADR movement in the United States; the multi-door courthouse concept Professor Frank Sander introduced created demand for a new class of court-connected mediators who would need exactly this lightweight mobile toolkit.

  • Word processor + email + videoconference (institutionalization of private ADR)

    Email transformed the mediator's pre-session preparation work: parties could submit position statements, documentary evidence, and chronologies electronically rather than by courier; mediators could conduct pre-mediation calls by phone and follow up by email the same day. The word processor enabled arbitrators to produce polished written decisions faster and iterate on draft awards without the delays of typing pools. Videoconference technology, available to well-funded commercial providers (JAMS, AAA) from the mid-1990s, allowed international arbitrations to be conducted without the travel cost that had previously confined major international proceedings to established neutral venues like London, Paris, and New York.

    Effect on the work

    The 1990s ADR expansion, driven partly by these tools reducing friction, grew the commercial private ADR market significantly. JAMS expanded nationally through its 1994 merger with Endispute, becoming the largest private ADR provider in the country.

  • Online case management portals + e-discovery tools

    The AAA and JAMS both launched web-based case management portals in the early-to-mid 2000s, allowing parties to file cases, submit documents, select neutrals, and track procedural deadlines online. For arbitrators handling commercial and employment disputes, the integration of e-discovery tools and structured document repositories transformed the pre-hearing phase: electronic document production replaced bankers-box deliveries. The eBay Resolution Center, designed by Colin Rule starting in 2003, handled tens of millions of consumer disputes per year using automated negotiation software that required no human mediator for the vast majority of cases, establishing a model that institutional ADR providers would later adapt.

  • Virtual hearing platforms (Zoom, Microsoft Teams) + document AI review

    COVID-19 in 2020 forced the widespread adoption of virtual hearing platforms that the ADR community had been piloting since 2015 for international arbitrations. JAMS, AAA, and FINRA all moved their hearing dockets to Zoom and similar platforms virtually overnight in March 2020. The transition proved more durable than expected: by 2022, a substantial share of commercial arbitration hearings remained virtual or hybrid, reducing hearing costs and allowing parties from different cities and countries to participate without travel. Document AI review tools (Harvey, CoCounsel) began entering the arbitrator's toolkit for pre-hearing document analysis, compressing the time required to review large evidentiary records.

  • AI legal research + ODR platforms + AI document analysis

    From 2022 onward, AI tools reshaped both ends of the arbitrator and mediator's work. At the routine end, AI-powered ODR platforms (Modria/Tyler Technologies, deployed at hundreds of courts; Smartsettle ONE for positional negotiations) handle large volumes of low-complexity disputes automatically, leaving human neutrals to focus on the edge cases the algorithms cannot resolve. At the sophisticated end, arbitrators handling complex commercial and construction disputes use Harvey, CoCounsel Deep Research, and Lex Machina for pre-hearing case preparation: AI legal research reduces the time for a comprehensive survey of applicable law from days to hours, and damages analytics tools give parties and neutrals a statistical picture of comparable outcomes in similar disputes.

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Arbitrators, Mediators, and Conciliators employment and pay by year

On record since1865
Latest US employment9,210 (May 2025)Source: BLS OEWS May 2025Official statisticReport an error
Latest US median pay$75,530 (May 2025)Source: BLS OEWS May 2025Official statisticReport an error
Outlook+4.7% by 2035Source: BLS Employment Projections 2025-35Official statisticReport an error
View all 27 years of cited US data, each linked to its source
YearUS employmentAnnual pay (median unless marked)SourceReport
1920150n/aEst., United States Conciliation Service Researched contextReport
1948400$4,200Est., Federal Mediation and Conciliation… (employment) Researched contextEst., Wikipedia (pay) Researched contextReport
19873,200n/aEst., Mediate.com Researched contextReport
20005,100n/aEst., EEOC Researched contextReport
20034,640$47,360BLS OEWS May 2003 Official statisticReport
20044,940$54,760BLS OEWS May 2004 Official statisticReport
20055,780$54,360BLS OEWS May 2005 Official statisticReport
20068,110$49,490BLS OEWS May 2006 Official statisticReport
20078,810$48,840BLS OEWS May 2007 Official statisticReport
20089,570$50,660BLS OEWS May 2008 Official statisticReport
20098,110$52,770BLS OEWS May 2009 Official statisticReport
20106,920$55,800BLS OEWS May 2010 Official statisticReport
20116,880$60,440BLS OEWS May 2011 Official statisticReport
20126,520$61,280BLS OEWS May 2012 Official statisticReport
20136,830$60,450BLS OEWS May 2013 Official statisticReport
20146,710$57,180BLS OEWS May 2014 Official statisticReport
20156,380$58,020BLS OEWS May 2015 Official statisticReport
20166,300$59,770BLS OEWS May 2016 Official statisticReport
20176,110$60,670BLS OEWS May 2017 Official statisticReport
20186,240$62,270BLS OEWS May 2018 Official statisticReport
20196,090$63,930BLS OEWS May 2019 Official statisticReport
20205,810$66,130BLS OEWS May 2020 Official statisticReport
20217,320$49,410BLS OEWS May 2021 Official statisticReport
20227,780$64,030BLS OEWS May 2022 Official statisticReport
20237,060$71,540BLS OEWS May 2023 Official statisticReport
20247,860$67,710BLS OEWS May 2024 Official statisticReport
20259,210$75,530BLS OEWS May 2025 Official statisticReport
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