Skip to sources
Time Machine

Dermatologists

Scrub through 200years of this role's history, from when it first emerged, through every wave of technology that reshaped it, to the cited projections for where it's heading next.

2026drag to travel through time
1850187519001925195019752000now
2026
Known today as Dermatologist / BLS SOC 29-1213
Latest actual · 2024
11K
BLS OEWS May 2024 establishment-survey estimate as reflected in O*NET. The BLS OEWS figure (10,900) is lower than some AAD membership counts because OEWS counts employed persons in the survey period, not all licensed practitioners; self-employed physicians in solo practices or small groups may be undercounted. BLS projects 6.4% growth 2024-2034, adding approximately 700 positions, driven primarily by aging population demand for skin cancer surveillance and cosmetic procedures. The specialty continues to face a structural access gap: wait times of 26-50 days nationally and an 82% increase in waitlists between 2021 and 2025.
Latest actual · 2024
$239,200
BLS OEWS May 2024 median annual wage floor of $239,200+ for dermatologists (the "+" notation indicates the wage is at or above the BLS OEWS survey top-code threshold). SalaryDr reports total median compensation of $347,810 for dermatologists in 2024, reflecting the full distribution including production-based and procedural income. The BLS median is the conservative anchor; actual median total compensation in private practice is substantially higher.
Each dot is a cited figure over time; the dotted line only links them (values between aren't measured). Hollow dots are estimates.
Beat · 2025

A 2025 survey published in Practical Dermatology found that 51.7% of dermatologists report using AI chatbots daily or weekly in their practice. Yet 97% manually edit AI responses before clinical use, and 92% cite privacy and accuracy limitations as concerns. The AAD's formal position statement frames AI as "augmented intelligence" -- designed to enhance, not replace, the physician-patient relationship. This professional consensus is notable: dermatology, despite having the largest AI device pipeline of any specialty, has positioned augmentation as the governing frame rather than replacement.

Tools of the era

The tools that defined the work

Select an era to see how it reshaped the work.

  • Clinical morphology and bedside diagnosis (Willan classification era)

    The dermatologist's core tool from Bulkley's 1836 dispensary through the end of the 19th century was the trained eye. Robert Willan's 1808 morphological classification system -- describing skin conditions by their primary lesion type (macule, papule, vesicle, pustule, wheal, bulla) -- gave the specialty its diagnostic vocabulary. A dermatologist of this era carried a hand lens and relied on inspection under natural light, knowledge of disease patterns, and patient history to distinguish syphilitic eruptions, infectious dermatoses, and inflammatory conditions in a world without germ theory, patch testing, or biopsy. The Broome Street Infirmary and its successors collected patients in sufficient volume to make pattern recognition possible across hundreds of cases, a practice model that would later be called clinicopathological correlation.

    Paper chartClinical notes
  • Dermatoscope / diascope and skin histopathology (Unna 1893; Wood's lamp 1903)

    Paul Gerson Unna of Hamburg published his technique of "diaskopie" in 1893, using immersion oil with a glass lens to render the uppermost epidermal layers translucent and reveal the vascular and structural features of skin lesions below. This was the conceptual ancestor of the modern dermatoscope. In the same era, Unna's 1894 landmark text on cutaneous histopathology established a rigorous laboratory science for the specialty, and Robert Wood's ultraviolet lamp (introduced to dermatology around 1903) allowed fluorescence-based identification of fungal and bacterial skin infections. The Wood's lamp remained a workhorse diagnostic tool for tinea capitis and pityriasis versicolor well into the late 20th century. These tools moved dermatology from pure clinical observation into laboratory-augmented diagnosis, a transition that accelerated with the spread of hospital-based skin clinics in the early 20th century.

    Work toolChanging equipment
  • Mohs micrographic surgery and broadband UV phototherapy (Frederic Mohs 1936-1940; Goeckerman UVB 1923; widespread procedural dermatology)

    Frederic Mohs treated his first patient with microscopically controlled excision on June 30, 1936, and by 1940 had refined the technique into a systematic procedure using a zinc chloride paste to fix tissue in situ before staged removal. Mohs surgery transformed what dermatologists could offer patients with skin cancer on cosmetically sensitive sites: the nose, ears, eyelids, and lips where the margin-controlled approach dramatically improved cure rates while minimizing tissue sacrifice. Early Mohs was performed under local anesthesia in an outpatient office setting, foreshadowing the shift of procedural dermatology away from hospital operating rooms. Simultaneously, William Henry Goeckerman's 1923 protocol combining coal tar with broadband UVB became the standard treatment for severe psoriasis and anchored phototherapy as a procedural tool. These developments made dermatology increasingly procedure-heavy, a structural feature that would later resist AI displacement.

    Work toolChanging equipment
  • PUVA photochemotherapy, first lasers, and board certification standards (1974-1995)

    In 1974, John Parrish at Massachusetts General Hospital successfully introduced psoralen plus UVA (PUVA) photochemotherapy, combining 8-methoxypsoralen with a newly developed high-intensity UVA light source. PUVA proved highly effective for psoriasis, vitiligo, and cutaneous T-cell lymphoma, transforming dermatology offices into phototherapy centers with dedicated light boxes and specialized scheduling. In 1963, Leon Goldman had pioneered the pulsed ruby laser for selective destruction of pigmented lesions; by the 1970s-1980s argon and CO2 lasers were entering dermatology practice for port-wine stains, tattoo removal, and resurfacing. The American Board of Dermatology, which had administered its first exams in 1933, now required a three-year residency for board eligibility (enacted 1938), creating a standardized pipeline whose graduates were certified proceduralists as well as diagnosticians.

    Work toolChanging equipment
  • Digital dermoscopy, biological therapies, and cosmetic dermatology boom (botulinum toxin FDA 2002; biologics 2002-2008)

    The late 1990s and early 2000s transformed dermatology across three dimensions simultaneously. First, digital dermoscopy moved from research curiosity to clinical tool: videodermatoscopes allowed the capture, storage, and serial comparison of dermoscopic images, turning the visual subspecialty into a data-generating practice. Second, the biological therapy era arrived: etanercept received FDA approval for psoriatic arthritis in 2002 and psoriasis in 2004; adalimumab for psoriasis in 2008, ushering in a new practice model of managing patients on complex immunomodulatory agents with monthly monitoring and lab review. Third, the FDA approved botulinum toxin (Botox) for cosmetic use in April 2002, and hyaluronic acid fillers followed in 2003. The cosmetic dermatology market exploded: procedures that had required a plastic surgeon now belonged to a dermatologist's afternoon schedule, transforming the compensation structure of the specialty and making dermatology among the most lucrative residency matches in American medicine.

    Effect on the work

    The cosmetic dermatology boom drove compensation growth: median dermatologist starting salaries reached $420,000 by 2019, placing the specialty in the top six for starting compensation across all of US medicine.

    Work toolChanging equipment
  • Teledermatology, whole-slide digital pathology, and EHR integration (store-and-forward 2010s; digital pathology 2007+)

    Teledermatology -- pioneered during US military operations in Somalia in 1992 but mainstreamed in civilian practice only in the 2010s -- allowed dermatologists to review patient-submitted or clinician-captured photographs asynchronously (store-and-forward) without a real-time visit. Store-and-forward teledermatology achieved 80-95% diagnostic accuracy for common conditions including acne, eczema, and psoriasis, and reduced in-person visits by 27% in implemented programs. Whole-slide imaging, commercially available since the late 1990s, began moving toward mainstream dermatopathology adoption after 2007, when digital pathology crossed an inflection point in processing speed and storage economics. The broader EHR adoption wave (accelerated by the HITECH Act of 2009) also reshaped dermatology documentation: practice management moved onto integrated platforms that combined scheduling, billing, and clinical notes, setting the stage for the ambient AI documentation tools that followed.

    Electronic recordDigital charting
  • AI dermoscopy, ambient documentation AI, and FDA-cleared skin cancer detection devices (DermaSensor 2024; Dragon Copilot; 15+ approved AI tools globally)

    The 2020s brought the largest technology inflection in dermatology since the cosmetic boom of the early 2000s, this time driven by AI. Dragon Copilot (rebranded from Nuance DAX Copilot in March 2025) achieved a 22% reduction in daily EHR time in a dermatology-specific pilot study, cutting per-encounter documentation from 6.5 to 5.1 minutes. DermaSensor received FDA clearance on January 17, 2024 as the first AI-powered medical device authorized to detect all three common skin cancers, achieving 96.5% sensitivity across melanoma, basal cell carcinoma, and squamous cell carcinoma. The AAD reported 15 regulatory-approved AI devices in dermatology globally by 2025, with the NICE Early Value Assessment recommending Skin Analytics DERM for NHS use in May 2025, citing its ability to halve referrals on the urgent skin cancer pathway while maintaining safety. Within the practice, AI prior authorization tools began automating a burden that consumed 16.2 hours per week per dermatologist (Adonis.io 2025). These tools augment rather than threaten the licensed procedural core: Mohs surgery, biopsies, cosmetic injectables, and laser procedures remain entirely hands-on.

    Effect on the work

    The AI augmentation wave arrived against a backdrop of structural workforce shortage rather than oversupply: dermatology waitlists grew 82% between 2021 and 2025 (Managed Healthcare Executive), and BLS projects 6.4% growth 2024-2034, faster than the all-occupations average of 4%. AI tools are expanding effective dermatologist capacity rather than reducing the headcount.

    AI audit toolsPattern detection
Projection cone · present → 2034

What credible sources project

Scrub the slider past now to anchor each scenario on the scrubber. The spread is the range of futures credible sources project for this role.

Employment outlook
Projected change in the number of people doing this work.
Managed Healthcare Executive / AAD Teledermatology Demand Scenario (2025)
2030
+15%
Upside demand scenario derived from Managed Healthcare Executive 2025 teledermatology expansion data. Dermatology waitlists grew 82% between 2021 and 2025; urgent skin lesion referrals rose 170% in 10 years. If AI-assisted triage tools (Skin Analytics DERM type) convert a meaningful fraction of currently unserved or delayed demand into completed dermatologist encounters, the effective case volume per dermatologist could increase substantially. This scenario models continued AI triage adoption driving both headcount demand and per-dermatologist productivity uplift, consistent with a 15% headcount increase by 2030 as previously unserved patients access care.
AAD Workforce Demand Analysis (MDedge retrospective, 2020)
2030
+10%
AAD workforce analysis cited in MDedge retrospective, combined with post-2020 waitlist data. The AAD estimates a persistent structural undersupply: 3.36 dermatologists per 100,000 population in 2016 against a suggested adequate level of 4.0 per 100,000. Waitlists grew 82% between 2021 and 2025. The combination of inadequate supply relative to demand and a constrained residency pipeline (576 spots annually, a near-fixed number given ACGME oversight) points toward sustained demand growth that the BLS projection may understate. This scenario reflects a conservative 10% growth estimate consistent with unmet demand continuing to drive both headcount expansion and scope-of-practice expansion for advanced practice providers in dermatology.
BLS National Employment Matrix 2024-34
2034
+6.4%
BLS Employment Projections 2024-34 industry-occupation matrix. The BLS projects 6.4% growth for dermatologists (29-1213), equivalent to approximately 700 additional positions (from 10,900 in 2024 to 11,600 in 2034). This is classified as faster than average against the all-occupations average of 4%. The BLS methodology models demand growth from an aging US population (skin cancer incidence rises sharply with age; the baby boomer cohort moves through its highest-risk decade), growing cosmetic procedure demand across age brackets, and continued residency slot constraints that limit supply expansion. The projection does not model potential demand amplification from AI-assisted triage expanding dermatologist referral volume, which could accelerate growth beyond this baseline.
AI task exposure
Share of the role’s tasks that researchers estimate AI can do. This is a measure of task exposure, not a forecast of jobs lost.
Eloundou et al. -- "GPTs are GPTs" (2023)
2028
28%
of tasks
GPT-4 task-by-task LLM exposure labeling on O*NET tasks for Physicians and Surgeons, adjusted for dermatology task composition. Dermatology scores in the low-to-medium range for LLM task exposure: the dominant tasks (performing biopsies, Mohs surgery, laser procedures, physical examination, cosmetic injections) require licensed hands-on technique that language models cannot perform. The significant LLM-exposed tasks are documentation (22% reduction in EHR time already achieved by ambient AI in pilot data), prior authorization administration, and patient education content. The 28% task exposure estimate reflects these administrative and documentation tasks as the primary exposure surface, with procedural tasks largely outside the scope of LLM automation.
Today, in this role

What's shifting in the work right now

The historical view above shows how this role has moved. This is the present-day detail: which AI tools are picking up which tasks, where the edge still is, and the natural directions this work can grow.

What's changing in your day

Three parts of your work where AI is already doing real lifting, and what stays yours.

AI is sitting alongside you hereManage AI-driven prior authorization workflows for biologic therapies and specialty dermatology medications — using AI PA tools (LLM-based clinical note analysis) to auto-populate and submit authorization requests for dupilumab, secukinumab, adalimumab, and other high-cost biologics

Manage AI-driven prior authorization workflows for biologic therapies and specialty dermatology medications — using AI PA tools (LLM-based clinical note analysis) to auto-populate and submit authorization requests for dupilumab, secukinumab, adalimumab, and other high-cost biologics; reviewing and approving AI-drafted medical necessity narratives before submission; and authoring clinical appeals for AI-unable-to-handle complex or off-label cases.[9],[16],[17]

Where your edge is

Prior authorization is the leading administrative burden in dermatology: 80%+ of specialty medications require PA, volumes at academic clinics rose 73.8% in two years, and dermatologists currently spend 16.2 hours per week on PA and claim denials (Adonis.io 2025). AI PA tools are beginning to automate the pattern-matching step — pulling clinical data from the note, mapping it to payer-specific criteria, and submitting complete requests. Your remaining value is in the high-complexity cases AI cannot handle: off-label biologic use with published evidence, PA appeals requiring peer-to-peer calls, and step-therapy override narratives. Build efficient templates for the most common PA types in your practice (dupilumab for atopic dermatitis, IL-17 inhibitors for psoriasis) to minimize time even on the residual manual cases.

AI is sitting alongside you hereReview and approve AI-drafted clinical encounter notes generated by ambient documentation AI (Dragon Copilot/DAX) following dermatology visits — verifying specialty-specific note content (lesion descriptors, biopsy indication, topical/systemic prescription rationale, follow-up interval) against the conversation transcript, correcting omissions or inaccuracies in skin examination findings, and signing the finalized note as the physician of record before EHR filing.

Review and approve AI-drafted clinical encounter notes generated by ambient documentation AI (Dragon Copilot/DAX) following dermatology visits — verifying specialty-specific note content (lesion descriptors, biopsy indication, topical/systemic prescription rationale, follow-up interval) against the conversation transcript, correcting omissions or inaccuracies in skin examination findings, and signing the finalized note as the physician of record before EHR filing.[6]

Where your edge is

Dermatology pilot data (10 dermatologists, 2021-2023) showed Dragon Ambient eXperience (DAX) cut daily EHR time from 90.1 to 70.3 minutes — a 22% reduction — and per-encounter documentation time from 6.5 to 5.1 minutes. Provider note contribution dropped from 96.7% to 51.7% of the note's content. At 83.3% satisfaction, this is one of the highest-adoption AI tools in any specialty. Your review focus should target dermatology-specific failure modes: imprecise lesion descriptor language (color gradients, border irregularity), missing biopsy laterality and site, and incorrect topical formulation strength. The physician who treats the AI draft as a structured transcript rather than a dictation replacement captures the time savings without compromising note quality.

AI is sitting alongside you hereConduct full-body skin examinations augmented by AI dermoscopy — using DermEngine's AI-powered lesion tracking to compare serial dermoscopic images across visits, review AI-flagged changes in pigmented lesions against prior total-body photography maps, identify new or evolving lesions flagged by the change-detection algorithm, and apply licensed clinical judgment to determine biopsy, monitor, or discharge decisions for each flagged lesion.

Conduct full-body skin examinations augmented by AI dermoscopy — using DermEngine's AI-powered lesion tracking to compare serial dermoscopic images across visits, review AI-flagged changes in pigmented lesions against prior total-body photography maps, identify new or evolving lesions flagged by the change-detection algorithm, and apply licensed clinical judgment to determine biopsy, monitor, or discharge decisions for each flagged lesion.[18],[5]

Tools picking this up
Where your edge is

AI dermoscopy platforms like DermEngine are making total-body mole mapping far more actionable — serial AI-flagged change detection catches subtle evolution that the naked eye misses across visits. Your edge is that AI flags changes but cannot determine clinical significance: the same color change in a 25-year-old with fair skin and family history of melanoma carries a different biopsy threshold than in a 70-year-old with seborrheic keratoses. Build fluency with the specific error modes of AI dermoscopy tools (they over-flag benign Spitz nevi and seborrheic keratoses) so your review is faster and more calibrated.

Where this role is heading

Natural next steps for someone with your foundation: not exits, evolutions.

A direction you could grow

Computer and Information Systems Managers

Dermatologists with depth in EHR configuration, AI tool evaluation, and teledermatology informatics are positioned for CMIO, VP of Clinical Informatics, or director of digital health roles. Dermatology's outsized AI device pipeline (15+ globally approved tools as of 2025) makes dermatologists with clinical AI expertise especially valuable for health system clinical informatics leadership. The 77% of physician informatics leaders who cited AI as their top priority in 2025 increasingly includes dermatologist backgrounds, given the specialty's high AI tool density. A dermatologist CMIO brings both the image AI literacy (dermoscopy validation, skin cancer detection algorithm assessment) and the procedural clinical context to bridge clinical and IT governance. CMIO base salaries range $280,000–$420,000. Pathway: AMIA 10×10 certificate or formal biomedical informatics degree; Epic build/configuration familiarity; AI model evaluation methodology.

What you'd add
  • · Health informatics credentials: AMIA 10×10 certificate (online, 30+ hours) or Master of Biomedical Informatics; ABPM Clinical Informatics board certification (fellowship pathway)
  • · AI model evaluation methodology: understanding sensitivity/specificity tradeoffs, training data diversity auditing (especially Fitzpatrick skin type representation), post-market surveillance for FDA-cleared devices
  • · EHR platform expertise: Epic or Cerner build certification; teledermatology workflow configuration; AI module integration with PACS and dermatology imaging systems
  • · HL7 FHIR and dermatology imaging standards: DICOM for dermoscopy and whole-slide pathology imaging; interoperability between AI tools and EHR systems
  • · Healthcare cybersecurity and HIPAA compliance: PHI governance for AI systems processing skin images and pathology slides; HHS OCR risk analysis methodology
What it takesSome new skills to pick up
Share this year
Drops anyone you send it to straight into 2026.
Preview card
Part of Healthcare · see all 69roles →
Different role?

See the same long-arc view for your own profession.

Browse the directory by industry, or search by title or SOC code. New roles ship every few weeks. Every profile cites every claim.

Browse all roles

The data behind this timeline

On record since1836
Latest tracked employment10,900 (US, 2024)
Latest median pay$239,200 (2024)
Outlook+10% by 2030 (AAD Workforce Demand Analysis (MDedge retrospective, 2020))
View all 10 cited data points
YearUS employmentMedian annual paySource
19704,004n/aESTIMATE
1971n/a$45,000ESTIMATE
19804,372n/aESTIMATE
19925,996n/aESTIMATE
201610,845n/aESTIMATE
2019n/a$420,000ESTIMATE
20219,230n/aBLS-OEWS
202211,640n/aBLS-OEWS
202312,040n/aBLS-OEWS
202410,900$239,200BLS-OEWS
Embed this timeline on your site

Free for any site. Paste this where the timeline should appear; it stays interactive, every datapoint stays cited, and it sets no cookies on your page. How embedding works

<iframe src="https://futurehistory.earth/embed/29-1213"
  width="100%" height="430" style="border:0"
  title="Dermatologists, a Future History timeline"
  loading="lazy"></iframe>

See all roles in Healthcare