Skip to sources
Time Machine

Aircraft mechanics

Official title Aircraft Mechanics and Service Technicians (SOC 49-3011)

Also called Aviation maintenance technician, AMT, A&P mechanic, Airframe and powerplant mechanic, Aircraft technician

In brief

In May 2025, BLS counted 138,090 US aircraft mechanics, with median pay of $79,870 a year. Of the BLS counts since 2003, the May 2025 count is the highest. The earliest figure here is an estimate of 3,500 from 1927, not measured the same way as today's count. The last full technology era for aircraft mechanics: Composite airframes + condition-based maintenance, 2005 to 2020.

What the sources say

Official outlook

BLS projects employment to grow 5.4% from 2025 to 2035.

BLS Employment Projections 2025-35

AI exposure studies

  • 6% of this job's tasks are exposed to large language models. Not a forecast of job losses. Eloundou and others, 2023
  • 0.71 estimated probability that the whole occupation could be computerised, over an unspecified number of years. Not a forecast of job losses. Frey and Osborne, 2013

Since the 2013 prediction

In 2013, Frey and Osborne put this job's probability of computerisation at 0.71. BLS counted 115,410 of these jobs in May 2013 and 138,090 in May 2025 (+20%, a change derived by Future History).

Data as of BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025-35. BLS publishes these counts as yearly survey snapshots and cautions against reading them as a precise trend. In May 2021 BLS changed how it estimates these counts (a model-based method using three years of survey data) and moved fully to the 2018 occupation codes, so part of a change across 2021 can come from the method rather than the work.

Last updated .

Cite this page
APA

Future History. (2026, October 11). Aircraft mechanics: jobs and pay since 1927 [Data set; data as of BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025-35]. https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/49-3011

Chicago

Future History. "Aircraft mechanics: jobs and pay since 1927." Data as of BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025-35. Last modified October 11, 2026. https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/49-3011.

BibTeX

@misc{futurehistory_49_3011, author = {{Future History}}, title = {Aircraft mechanics: jobs and pay since 1927}, year = {2026}, month = oct, howpublished = {\url{https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/49-3011}}, note = {Last updated 2026-10-11. Data as of BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025-35}, }

The access date is today's date on your device.

drag to travel through time
1925195019752000now
Country
2026
Known then as Mechanician / Aircraft Mechanic (pre-regulatory era)
Known then as Aircraft and Engine (A&E) Mechanic (Air Commerce Act licensing era)
Known then as Airframe and Powerplant (A&P) Mechanic (FAA Part 65 era)
Known then as Aviation Maintenance Technician / A&P Mechanic (FAA era)
Known then as Aircraft Mechanics and Service Technicians (BLS SOC 49-3011)
Known today as Aircraft Mechanics and Service Technicians (BLS SOC 49-3011)
Projected to still be called Aircraft Mechanics and Service Technicians (BLS SOC 49-3011)
Data from the May 2025 survey
US Employment
138K
Est.

Stated in source: BLS OEWS

Official statistic
Report an error
Median Annual Wage
$79,870
Est.

≈ $77,822 in 2024 prices (derived by us, CPI-adjusted)

Official statistic
Report an error
Beat · 1903

December 17, 1903: Charles Taylor's handmade 12-horsepower aluminum engine powers the Wright Flyer at Kill Devil Hills, North Carolina, for a 12-second, 120-foot flight. Taylor, a machinist earning $18 per week, had built the engine in six weeks using a lathe and a drill press in the Wright brothers' bicycle shop. He is the first aircraft mechanic in history. His engine weighed 152 pounds and produced 12 horsepower, achieving a power-to-weight ratio no existing commercial engine of the time could match.

Beat · 1926

May 20, 1926: President Calvin Coolidge signs the Air Commerce Act, creating the first federal legal framework for civil aviation in the United States. Mechanics repairing aircraft in air commerce are required to obtain either an airplane or engine mechanic license. The first Air Commerce Regulations are issued December 31, 1926 by the Aeronautics Branch of the Department of Commerce under its first director, William P. MacCracken Jr. On July 1, 1927, Frank Gates Gardner of Norfolk, Virginia, receives Federal aircraft mechanic license number one, inaugurating a credentialing system that directly descends from the modern A&P certificate.

Beat · 1936

American Airlines introduces the Douglas DC-3, the aircraft that would dominate commercial aviation for the next two decades. The DC-3's 700-page maintenance manual represents the first comprehensive codification of maintenance procedures for a transport-category aircraft, transforming maintenance from craft knowledge into a documented discipline. By 1939, DC-3s carry 90% of the world's airline passengers. The mechanics who maintain these aircraft are the first true professionals of what will become the modern AMT (Aviation Maintenance Technician) role.

Beat · 1952

June 15, 1952: The Civil Aeronautics Administration replaces the separate Aircraft and Engine (A&E) ratings with the unified Airframe and Powerplant (A&P) certificate. Mechanics holding the older A&E ratings are automatically recognized as holding the equivalent A&P. The A&P unification is timed to coincide with the jet age transition: regulators anticipate that turbofan-era aircraft will require mechanics with broad knowledge across airframe structure and engine systems rather than narrow component specialization.

Beat · 1958

October 26, 1958: Pan American World Airways launches the first US commercial jet service with a Boeing 707 from New York to Paris, inaugurating the jet age in American commercial aviation. Airlines immediately began retooling their maintenance workforces: piston-engine mechanics had to learn entirely new systems. Turbofan powerplants offered greater reliability but required different inspection techniques (borescope, turbine-blade mapping) and far more specialized tooling. Airlines ran emergency training programs to convert their existing mechanics. The 707 mechanics of 1958-1962 were arguably the most rapidly retrained professional workforce in industrial history.

Beat · 2001

September 11, 2001: Terrorist attacks on New York and Washington cause the immediate grounding of all US commercial aircraft and the largest single-day airline-industry disruption in history. By September 22, 2001, major US carriers had announced a combined 100,000 job cuts. Aircraft mechanics were furloughed alongside pilots and cabin crew. The post-9/11 hiring freeze lasted through the mid-2000s for many carriers, creating what industry analysts later called a "lost generation" of mechanics: a five-to-eight year gap in new entrants to the profession that contributed directly to the shortage crisis of the 2020s.

Beat · 2011

October 26, 2011: Boeing delivers the first 787 Dreamliner to All Nippon Airways. The 787 is 50% composite by weight, the first commercial transport to use CFRP as the primary structural material. Aircraft mechanics face a new inspection challenge: carbon fiber damage is invisible to the naked eye and standard metal-inspection techniques cannot be applied without modification. Boeing and the FAA develop new inspection standards and tooling for composite structures. The 787 also introduces the most extensive onboard health-monitoring system ever deployed on a commercial aircraft, transmitting real-time sensor data to maintenance operations centers and fundamentally changing how mechanics receive and act on maintenance signals.

Beat · 2020

March 2020: COVID-19 triggers the complete collapse of commercial aviation traffic. Airlines ground 60-80% of their fleets; aircraft mechanics face furloughs for the second time in two decades. COVID also accelerated early retirements among senior mechanics: an estimated 5,000 fewer new mechanics entered the industry during the 2020-2022 period than would have been expected from prior trend. The Boeing 737 MAX, grounded worldwide from March 2019 to November 2020 following two fatal crashes, had already compressed mechanic utilization at Boeing and affected carriers. By 2022 the confluence of the MAX crisis, COVID furloughs, and accelerated retirements had created a structural technician shortage that industry forecasters project will persist through the 2040s.

How to read this number

OEWS is a point-in-time survey snapshot, not a continuous time series; BLS advises against using it for year-over-year trend comparison.

Each dot is a cited figure over time; the dotted line only links them (values between aren't measured). Hollow dots are estimates.

Official statistic: Copied by a script from a statistics agency table or a published study's table, not retyped by hand. BLS figures and the forecast and exposure tables are also re-checked against that table on every data run. Researched context: Researched from the cited source rather than copied from it by a script, so it is not machine-checked yet. Spot a mistake? Each figure has a “Report an error” link.

Cited forecasts · present → 2035

Will AI replace aircraft mechanics? What the research says

Each figure is stated by the named source; we publish no forecasts of our own. Where sources disagree, we show the disagreement rather than an average.

Each figure is stated by the named source; we publish no forecasts of our own. Where sources disagree, the spread is the honest signal.

What published forecasts say
Forecast change in the number of people doing this work, as published by each named source. Bars share one scale on every role, centred on zero and reaching the end at ±30%. Grey marks a small change, 3% or less either way.
BLS Employment Projections 2025-35
→ 2035
+5.4%
BLS National Employment Matrix, 2025-35 cycle, line for SOC 49-3011 (Aircraft mechanics and service technicians): 140.0 thousand jobs in 2025, projected 147.6 thousand in 2035, a change of +7.5 thousand (+5.4%). Matrix employment counts all jobs in the occupation, including self-employed workers (0.8% of this occupation in 2025). The average for all occupations in this cycle is +3.5%.
Official statisticReport an error
How exposed is this work to AI (research measures)
Scores as published by each study. Each row says what it measures. These measure what AI could technically do, not forecasts of jobs lost.
Frey & Osborne (2013), "The Future of Employment"
2013 study · Probability of computerisation (2013 model)
71%
probability
What this measures

Published appendix value for SOC 2010 49-3011 Aircraft Mechanics and Service Technicians: probability of computerisation 0.71, rank 387 of 702 (rank 1 is least computerisable). Frey and Osborne estimated in 2013, with a Gaussian-process classifier on O*NET variables, how likely the whole occupation is to be technically automatable over "some unspecified number of years, perhaps a decade or two". It is a probability for the occupation, not a share of tasks and not a forecast of jobs lost.

Official statisticReport an error
Eloundou et al. (2023), "GPTs are GPTs"
2023 study · Share of tasks exposed to LLMs (β, human-rated)
6%
of tasks
What this measures

Published occupation-level exposure from the paper's occ_level.csv for O*NET-SOC 49-3011.00 Aircraft Mechanics and Service Technicians. Shown: human-rated β = 0.06, the share of the occupation's tasks an LLM could do in at least half the time at equal quality, counting tasks that need LLM-powered software at half weight (β = E1 + 0.5 × E2). Other published measures for this occupation: human-rated α (LLM alone) 0.015 and γ (all LLM-assisted) 0.104; GPT-4-rated β 0.134. This measures how much of the work an LLM could touch, not how many jobs disappear.

Official statisticReport an error
Today, in this role

What's changing day to day for aircraft mechanics

Three parts of your work where AI is already doing real lifting, and what stays yours.

AI is sitting alongside you hereAssess and sentence airworthiness directives (ADs) and service bulletins against the specific aircraft, determining applicability, calculating compliance deadlines, and generating corrective work cards

Assess and sentence airworthiness directives (ADs) and service bulletins against the specific aircraft, determining applicability, calculating compliance deadlines, and generating corrective work cards. IFS reports that one of its industrial AI tools for automated AD/SB impact analysis cut the time to process an AD by more than 70%.[6]

Where your edge is

Learn to review AI-generated compliance assessments critically. ADs carry legal force; mechanical understanding of why an airworthiness order applies to your specific airframe configuration is essential for catch-all review.

AI is sitting alongside you hereQuery AI-assisted technical documentation systems (such as Textron TAMI or Veryon AI Assist) to locate relevant maintenance manual sections, service bulletins, and airworthiness directives in under two minutes, replacing 20-minute manual searches through tens of thousands of pages.

Query AI-assisted technical documentation systems (such as Textron TAMI or Veryon AI Assist) to locate relevant maintenance manual sections, service bulletins, and airworthiness directives in under two minutes, replacing 20-minute manual searches through tens of thousands of pages.[7],[8]

Where your edge is

Learn natural-language query techniques and understand how to validate AI-retrieved procedures against the authoritative source before acting. FAA sign-off is still your personal liability.

AI is sitting alongside you herePerform borescope engine inspections using AI-vision systems (such as Rolls-Royce Intelligent Borescope) that automatically image HPT blades, map blade profiles against reference templates, and flag anomalies for human sentencing, reducing a routine 12-hour inspection by up to 75%.

Perform borescope engine inspections using AI-vision systems (such as Rolls-Royce Intelligent Borescope) that automatically image HPT blades, map blade profiles against reference templates, and flag anomalies for human sentencing, reducing a routine 12-hour inspection by up to 75%.[9],[10]

Where your edge is

Develop expertise in interpreting AI-flagged anomalies rather than raw image reading alone. Understand the AI's confidence bounds and know when to override or escalate findings to an engineer.

Where aircraft mechanics go next

Natural next steps for someone with your foundation: not exits, evolutions.

  • Aerospace Engineering and Operations Technologists and TechniciansNo timeline for this role yet
  • Avionics TechniciansNo timeline for this role yet
  • Transportation InspectorsNo timeline for this role yet

What each move takes

A direction you could grow

Aerospace Engineering and Operations Technologists and Technicians

Senior aircraft mechanics who develop quality systems, root-cause analysis, and technical writing skills pivot into aerospace engineering technologist roles supporting design verification, test article maintenance, and production quality at OEM or MRO engineering departments. This path moves from production floor accountability to engineering process oversight.

What you'd add
  • · AS9100 quality management systems and audit procedures
  • · Non-destructive testing (NDT) Level II certifications (eddy current, ultrasonic)
  • · Technical report writing and failure mode analysis (FMEA)
  • · CAD drawing interpretation and engineering change order processes
What it takesSome new skills to pick up
Tools of the era

How has the work of aircraft mechanics changed since 1903?

The tools that defined the work, one line per era. Select an era to see how it reshaped the work.

  • Hand tools + basic machining (pre-regulatory era)

    The first aircraft mechanics worked with the same hand tools as machinists and blacksmiths: files, wrenches, pliers, and a lathe. Charles Taylor built the Wright Flyer engine with a lathe and a drill press. Aircraft of this era were fabric-and-wood structures held together with wire bracing and bolts; maintenance meant tightening turnbuckles, patching fabric, adjusting control cables, and lubricating exposed engine components. There was no standard procedure, no manual, and no certification. Each mechanic improvised from mechanical intuition and experience with existing machines.

  • Federal licensing + maintenance manuals (Air Commerce Act era)

    The Air Commerce Act of 1926 created the first federal licensing regime for aircraft mechanics, requiring holders of airplane or engine ratings to demonstrate competency through examination. Simultaneously, the first formalized maintenance manuals began to appear: airlines and aircraft manufacturers started codifying procedures so that any licensed mechanic could service a given airframe model consistently. This was a profound shift from craft knowledge to documented process. The Douglas DC-3, which entered service in 1936 and became the backbone of US commercial aviation, had a maintenance manual that standardized for the first time what it meant to maintain a transport-category aircraft.

    Effect on the work

    Licensing created a defined professional credential and a wage premium over unlicensed mechanics. The number of federally licensed mechanics grew from a few thousand in 1927 to tens of thousands by the late 1930s as commercial aviation expanded under the airmail contracts.

  • A&P certificate (FAA Part 65, unified Airframe and Powerplant rating)

    In 1952 the FAA (then the Civil Aeronautics Administration) unified the separate Aircraft and Engine ratings into the Airframe and Powerplant (A&P) certificate, creating the credential that still defines the profession today. Until 1952, a mechanic might hold an Airframe rating but not an Engine rating, or vice versa. The A&P combined both into a single qualification requiring demonstrated competency across the full scope of aircraft maintenance. The 1952 unification coincided with the transition of commercial aviation from piston to turbine engines: the timing was deliberate, as regulators anticipated that jet-era aircraft would require mechanics with broad systems knowledge rather than narrower component specialization.

  • Turbofan engine era (Boeing 707, 1958; specialized tooling and test equipment)

    When Pan American World Airways launched the first US passenger jet service with the Boeing 707 on October 26, 1958, aircraft mechanics across the country faced a wholesale retraining requirement. Turbofan engines had no carburetor to adjust, no magnetos to time, and no cylinder head temperatures to read; instead they required borescope inspections, turbine-blade cooling-hole probing, and compressor blade-profile checks that demanded new tools and new skills. Airlines ran emergency training programs to convert their piston-engine mechanics. The tooling proliferated: torque wrenches with tighter tolerances, hydraulic test rigs, pneumatic pressure testers, and the first generation of electronic test equipment for the growing avionics suites. The jet era doubled the complexity of the aircraft mechanic's toolkit within a decade.

    Effect on the work

    Airlines saw their maintenance labor costs per seat-mile rise initially as piston-era mechanics required retraining, but ultimately turbine engines proved far more reliable than piston engines, reducing the frequency of unscheduled maintenance events and allowing longer overhaul intervals.

  • Digital avionics + computerized maintenance tracking (ACARS, EFB predecessors)

    The 1980s brought digital avionics into line aircraft: glass cockpits, fly-by-wire systems (Airbus A320 introduced 1988), and the Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System (ACARS), which began transmitting maintenance-relevant fault messages from aircraft to airline operations centers in real time. Mechanics began using computerized maintenance management systems (CMMS) for the first time, moving from paper logbooks to database-backed maintenance records. The Minimum Equipment List (MEL) and the Maintenance Review Board (MRB) process became the regulatory framework for deferring non-safety-critical squawks, requiring mechanics to make legally documented decisions from a digital compliance record rather than a handwritten note.

    Effect on the work

    Digital maintenance records and computerized fault tracking reduced unscheduled maintenance events by improving mechanics' access to a component's full service history. Airlines that adopted CMMS in the 1980s reported reductions in repeat-defect rates and improvements in aircraft utilization.

  • Composite airframes + condition-based maintenance (Boeing 787, 2011)

    The Boeing 787 Dreamliner, which entered service with All Nippon Airways in October 2011, introduced a commercial transport airframe built largely of composite material. Carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP) structures required entirely new inspection techniques: visual damage is often invisible on composites, and the standard practices of tapping and ultrasonic inspection had to be re-certified for the new materials. Simultaneously, the 787's "e-enabled" architecture transmitted continuous health-monitoring data from hundreds of sensors directly to maintenance operations centers, enabling condition-based maintenance that allowed airlines to plan work before faults caused disruptions. The mechanic's role shifted further toward data interpretation: reading a maintenance alert dashboard alongside the physical aircraft.

    Effect on the work

    Condition-based maintenance reduced unscheduled maintenance events on hundreds of fleets compared to equivalent wide-body aircraft without connected health-monitoring systems, according to Boeing's own operational data. This productivity gain did not reduce mechanic headcount but allowed the same workforce to maintain more airframes with fewer AOG (aircraft on ground) events.

  • AI augmentation layer (AI borescope, predictive analytics, voice documentation, LLM manuals)

    Beginning around 2020 and accelerating sharply through 2024-25, AI tools entered the aircraft mechanic's workflow at every major task boundary. Rolls-Royce's Intelligent Borescope uses computer vision to map HPT blade profiles and auto-flag anomalies, cutting an engine inspection. Textron's TAMI system answers natural-language queries against tens of thousands of pages of maintenance manuals in under two minutes, replacing searches that previously took minutes. Boeing AnalytX and Honeywell Forge process millions of flight records daily to predict component failures several days in advance. Voice AI tools (aiOla) capture hands-free verbal maintenance records in noisy hangars. IFS Industrial AI processes airworthiness directives and service bulletins and builds compliance job cards; IFS says the tool cut the time to process an AD. None of these tools can sign the maintenance release: the A&P certificate holder remains legally accountable for every certified act, and no regulatory framework permits delegation to an AI system. The AI layer augments speed and catches errors; the human mechanic sentences findings and takes responsibility.

    Effect on the work

    Early McKinsey analysis of generative AI in airline maintenance estimated that AI-augmented mechanics could handle more maintenance events per shift in documentation-heavy tasks. The net effect on headcount is expected to be expansive rather than contracting: the shortage of mechanics is so severe (Boeing projects 710,000 needed globally over decades) that productivity gains will be absorbed by fleet growth before they reduce employment.

Part of Repair & Maintenance · see all 22 roles →
Different role?

See the same long-arc view for your own profession.

Browse the directory by industry, or search by title or SOC code.

Browse all roles

Aircraft Mechanics and Service Technicians employment and pay by year

On record since1903
Latest US employment138,090 (May 2025)Source: BLS OEWS May 2025Official statisticReport an error
Latest US median pay$79,870 (May 2025)Source: BLS OEWS May 2025Official statisticReport an error
Outlook+5.4% by 2035Source: BLS Employment Projections 2025-35Official statisticReport an error

In other countries

The latest figure each country's statistics agency publishes for this job. Each uses its own occupation definition, survey basis and currency, so the numbers are not directly comparable with each other or with the US figures.

  • Canada (NOC 72404)

    Employment, 2020
    18,495, Statistics Canada Census 2021 Official statistic Report an errorStatistics Canada Census of Population 2021: number of persons with employment income in NOC 72404 Aircraft mechanics and aircraft inspectors, Canada, reference year 2020. A recipients basis (anyone with employment income during the year), slightly broader than a point-in-time employed count. Statistics Canada Open Licence.
    Median pay, 2020
    C$81,000, Statistics Canada Census 2021 Official statistic Report an errorStatistics Canada Census of Population 2021 (Table 98-10-0586): median employment income for NOC 72404 Aircraft mechanics and aircraft inspectors, Canada, reference year 2020, full-year full-time workers (the basis comparable to the US OEWS full-time median). Statistics Canada Open Licence.
View all 28 years of cited US data, each linked to its source
YearUS employmentAnnual pay (median unless marked)SourceReport
19273,500n/aEst., FAA History Researched contextReport
1942150,000n/aEst., Hyperwar Researched contextReport
196585,000n/aEst., NBAA Researched contextReport
1975n/a$16,000Est., BLS Monthly Labor Review Researched contextReport
2001135,250$41,990BLS OEWS 2001 (employment) Official statisticBLS OEWS 2001 (pay) Official statisticReport
2003117,180$43,560BLS OEWS May 2003 Official statisticReport
2004112,830$45,290BLS OEWS May 2004 Official statisticReport
2005115,120$47,310BLS OEWS May 2005 Official statisticReport
2006118,210$47,740BLS OEWS May 2006 Official statisticReport
2007118,780$49,010BLS OEWS May 2007 Official statisticReport
2008116,310$51,390BLS OEWS May 2008 Official statisticReport
2009112,130$52,810BLS OEWS May 2009 Official statisticReport
2010117,510$53,420BLS OEWS May 2010 Official statisticReport
2011117,320$54,590BLS OEWS May 2011 Official statisticReport
2012119,160$55,210BLS OEWS May 2012 Official statisticReport
2013115,410$55,980BLS OEWS May 2013 Official statisticReport
2014116,830$56,990BLS OEWS May 2014 Official statisticReport
2015124,040$58,370BLS OEWS May 2015 Official statisticReport
2016128,570$60,170BLS OEWS May 2016 Official statisticReport
2017131,500$61,020BLS OEWS May 2017 Official statisticReport
2018131,690$62,920BLS OEWS May 2018 Official statisticReport
2019133,310$64,090BLS OEWS May 2019 Official statisticReport
2020128,300$66,440BLS OEWS May 2020 Official statisticReport
2021125,440$65,380BLS OEWS May 2021 Official statisticReport
2022134,070$70,010BLS OEWS May 2022 Official statisticReport
2023137,630$75,020BLS OEWS May 2023 Official statisticReport
2024136,390$78,680BLS OEWS May 2024 Official statisticReport
2025138,090$79,870BLS OEWS May 2025 Official statisticReport
Embed this timeline on your site

Free for any site. Paste this where the timeline should appear; it stays interactive, every datapoint stays cited, and it sets no cookies on your page. How embedding works

<iframe src="https://futurehistory.earth/embed/49-3011"
  width="100%" height="430" style="border:0"
  title="Aircraft Mechanics and Service Technicians, a Future History timeline"
  loading="lazy"></iframe>
<p style="font-size:13px;margin:4px 0 0"><a href="https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/49-3011">Aircraft Mechanics and Service Technicians: jobs and pay over time</a>, from Future History</p>

See all roles in Repair & Maintenance