Heavy truck drivers
Official title Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers (SOC 53-3032)
Also called Truck driver, CDL driver, Semi truck driver, Tractor-trailer driver, OTR driver
In brief
In May 2025, BLS counted 2,062,040 US heavy truck drivers, with median pay of $58,640 a year. Of the BLS counts since 2012, the highest was 2,070,480, in May 2024, close to the May 2025 count. The earliest figure here is an estimate of 194,000 from 1920, not measured the same way as today's count. The last full technology era for heavy truck drivers: TuSimple "Driver Out" + first-wave bust, 2021 to 2024.
What the sources say
Official outlook
BLS projects employment to grow 3.8% from 2025 to 2035.
AI exposure studies
- 17.3% of this job's tasks are exposed to large language models. Not a forecast of job losses. Eloundou and others, 2023
- 0.79 estimated probability that the whole occupation could be computerised, over an unspecified number of years. Not a forecast of job losses. Frey and Osborne, 2013
Since the 2013 prediction
In 2013, Frey and Osborne put this job's probability of computerisation at 0.79. BLS counted 1,585,300 of these jobs in May 2013 and 2,062,040 in May 2025 (+30%, a change derived by Future History).
Data as of BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025-35. BLS publishes these counts as yearly survey snapshots and cautions against reading them as a precise trend. In May 2021 BLS changed how it estimates these counts (a model-based method using three years of survey data) and moved fully to the 2018 occupation codes, so part of a change across 2021 can come from the method rather than the work.
Last updated .
Cite this page
Future History. (2026, October 11). Heavy truck drivers: jobs and pay since 1920 [Data set; data as of BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025-35]. https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/53-3032
Future History. "Heavy truck drivers: jobs and pay since 1920." Data as of BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025-35. Last modified October 11, 2026. https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/53-3032.
@misc{futurehistory_53_3032, author = {{Future History}}, title = {Heavy truck drivers: jobs and pay since 1920}, year = {2026}, month = oct, howpublished = {\url{https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/53-3032}}, note = {Last updated 2026-10-11. Data as of BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025-35}, }
The access date is today's date on your device.
≈ $57,137 in 2024 prices (derived by us, CPI-adjusted)
The International Brotherhood of Teamsters is founded at a joint convention in Niagara Falls, N.Y.: a merger of the Team Drivers International Union (AFL, 1898) and the Teamsters National Union (1901). Its founding members drove horse-drawn wagons. Within 30 years its membership would be dominated by truck drivers. By 2025 the IBT represented ~1.25 million workers across many industries.
The Motor Carrier Act of 1935 gives the Interstate Commerce Commission (ICC) authority over trucking rates, routes, and entry: the result of sustained lobbying by the railroads, who had been losing freight to trucks. The ICC essentially decides which companies may haul what, where, and for how much. The act turns trucking from a chaotic, safety-poor industry into a regulated utility, and creates the conditions for Teamster organizing to achieve middle-class wages.
President Eisenhower signs the Federal-Aid Highway Act on June 29, 1956, authorizing 41,000 miles of limited-access interstates and $25 billion in federal funding. The act was justified partly on Cold War national-defense grounds (Eisenhower had been struck by Germany's Autobahn during WWII). The interstate system restructured the US freight economy over the next 20 years, transferring the majority of intercity cargo from rail to truck.
C.W. McCall's "Convoy" hits #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 in January 1976, the peak of the CB radio trucker counterculture. The song, written by advertising executive Bill Fries (the "McCall" persona) after he bought a CB radio and tuned into trucker slang, spawned a 1978 Sam Peckinpah film. For one decade, the long-haul trucker was a genuine American cultural hero: a figure of freedom and resistance to authority.
The Motor Carrier Act of 1980 is signed by President Carter. Within a decade, hundreds of regulated carriers go bankrupt, Teamster membership collapses, and real truck driver wages fall 30-40%. Sociologist Steve Viscelli, who drove a truck for six months for his 2016 book "The Big Rig," documented how the owner-operator model that emerged post-deregulation systematically shifted market risk from carriers to individual drivers, converting a middle-class W-2 job into an often-precarious 1099 arrangement.
October 25, 2016: Otto (acquired by Uber weeks earlier) delivers 45,000 cans of Budweiser from Fort Collins to Colorado Springs on US-25-120 highway miles with no driver at the wheel. A professional driver monitors from the sleeper berth; Colorado State Patrol cars provide escort. This is the first commercial autonomous freight delivery on public US highways, and the event that makes the displacement threat concrete rather than theoretical for working drivers.
December 18, 2017: the FMCSA ELD mandate takes effect. All commercial truck drivers must now track Hours of Service electronically: paper logs are illegal. The mandate ends the informal practice of "running" extra hours by manipulating paper records. Drivers lose the informal flexibility they had built into their schedules; some experienced drivers quit rather than comply. Industry estimates suggest HOS-compliant driving reduced effective capacity by 3-7%, contributing to the post-2017 rate surge.
Aurora Innovation begins paid commercial driverless trucking on the Dallas-Houston I-45 corridor in May 2025: the first revenue-generating, driver-absent long-haul autonomous service on a US interstate. Aurora reports completing over 10,000 customer loads in supervised mode across 3 million autonomous miles before going driverless. Fleet size: ~30 trucks. The commercial era of autonomous highway freight has begun, though at a scale that affects zero drivers' employment today.
Will AI replace heavy truck drivers? What the research says
Each figure is stated by the named source; we publish no forecasts of our own. Where sources disagree, we show the disagreement rather than an average.
Each figure is stated by the named source; we publish no forecasts of our own. Where sources disagree, the spread is the honest signal.
What's changing day to day for heavy truck drivers
Three parts of your work where AI is already doing real lifting, and what stays yours.
AI is sitting alongside you hereMaintain accurate Hours of Service logs via electronic logging device (ELD) in compliance with FMCSA regulations
Maintain accurate Hours of Service logs via electronic logging device (ELD) in compliance with FMCSA regulations; respond to AI-generated HOS violation warnings before violations occur; manage split sleeper berth calculations and 34-hour restart windows.[12],[13],[1]
Learn to use ELD exception modes correctly (adverse driving, emergency declarations). Carriers increasingly prefer drivers who can self-manage HOS with minimal dispatcher intervention, demonstrating that skill reduces dispatch overhead and signals readiness for owner-operator or fleet supervisor roles.
AI is sitting alongside you herePlan and continuously adjust routes using AI-powered fleet management software and GPS navigation
Plan and continuously adjust routes using AI-powered fleet management software and GPS navigation; override AI routing recommendations when real-world conditions (bridge weight limits, road closures, fuel availability) require local judgment; report route anomalies to dispatch.[14],[8]
Develop expertise reading DOT weight restriction maps, seasonal road closure schedules, and weigh-station bypass systems (PrePass, Drivewyze). AI routing is trained on historical data and misses dynamic restrictions; the driver who catches these early saves the carrier hours of costly rerouting.
AI is sitting alongside you hereManage fuel consumption across the route: select fuel stops using AI-integrated fuel card apps that compare diesel and DEF prices along the route
Manage fuel consumption across the route: select fuel stops using AI-integrated fuel card apps that compare diesel and DEF prices along the route; record fuel purchases accurately in fleet management systems; avoid fuel fraud flags by fueling only at approved carrier-network locations.[6],[9]
Owner-operators gain the most from AI fuel optimization: combining DAT RateView rate intelligence with fuel-price optimization tools can add net revenue per mile on long-haul routes. Learn to use fuel-card apps (Comdata SmartFunds, EFS) that integrate with route planning for price-optimized fueling.
Where heavy truck drivers go next
Natural next steps for someone with your foundation: not exits, evolutions.
- Logisticians
- US median pay
- $82,320 (May 2025)
- BLS outlook 2025-35
- +17.6%
- First-Line Supervisors of Material-Moving Machine and Vehicle OperatorsNo timeline for this role yet
What each move takes
Logisticians
CDL drivers with OTR experience understand freight lanes, carrier relationships, load constraints, and delivery economics at a granular level that most office-based logistics coordinators lack. As AI tools automate the high-volume freight-matching and routing tasks, carriers and 3PLs increasingly hire drivers-turned-logistics-analysts to configure AI systems, audit AI freight recommendations, and manage exception freight that algorithms cannot handle.
- · Supply chain fundamentals: APICS CSCP or CLTD certification (covers transportation, warehousing, inventory, demand planning)
- · Transportation management systems (TMS): McLeod, Mercury Gate, or Oracle TMS, dispatcher-level configuration beyond driver-only use
- · Data analysis: Excel pivot tables + Power BI for freight lane analysis, carrier performance dashboards, cost-per-mile modeling
- · Freight procurement and broker relations: DAT RateView and Truckstop market intelligence tools
How has the work of heavy truck drivers changed since 1896?
The tools that defined the work, one line per era. Select an era to see how it reshaped the work.
First motorized freight vehicles (Daimler, Benz, Mack)
The internal combustion engine replaced horse-drawn wagons for short commercial hauls. Gottlieb Daimler's 1896 Motor-Lastwagen was the first purpose-built freight vehicle; Karl Benz introduced a commercial truck line in 1900; the Mack Brothers opened their Brooklyn plant around the same time. The "driver" was as much mechanic as operator: vehicles broke down constantly on unpaved roads.
Effect on the workEffectively zero truck drivers existed in 1895; by 1915 the US had tens of thousands. The role emerged from scratch within a generation.
WWI military motorization: mass truck training
The US Army requisitioned tens of thousands of commercial trucks for the Western Front (the "Liberty truck" standardization program) and trained the men who drove them. This created a large civilian cohort of experienced drivers who returned home to a growing commercial trucking sector. WWI proved decisively that motorized freight could replace horse-drawn logistics at scale.
Pneumatic tires + diesel engines: long haul becomes viable
Hard rubber tires limited early trucks to local delivery; pneumatic tires (widely adopted by the mid-1920s) allowed highway speeds. Diesel engines entered commercial trucking in the early 1930s, dramatically reducing fuel cost per mile and enabling the economics of interstate long-haul. By 1935 the industry was large enough for Congress to regulate it under the Motor Carrier Act.
ICC regulation + Teamster organization: the stable middle-class era
The Motor Carrier Act of 1935 put the ICC in control of rates, routes, and entry: effectively making trucking a regulated utility. The Teamsters negotiated a National Master Freight Agreement across about a thousand carriers. The result was stable rates, predictable hours, and wages that made long-haul driving a middle-class career. Drivers who stayed in the ICC/Teamster system were among the highest-paid blue-collar workers in America.
Eisenhower Interstate Highway System
The Federal-Aid Highway Act of 1956 authorized tens of thousands of miles of limited-access interstate highways and created the Highway Trust Fund (financed by taxes on fuel, tires, and truck manufacturers). The interstate system made 70-mph cross-country freight economically competitive with rail for the first time. By 1970 trucking had captured the majority of intercity freight revenue from the railroads.
Effect on the workThe interstate buildout was the primary driver of heavy truck driver headcount growing from ~1.1M (1940) to ~1.6M (1960) to ~1.7M (1980).
CB radio: trucker communication and counterculture
Citizens band (CB) radio was already in use among truckers before the 1973 oil crisis and 55-mph speed limit. Enforcement of the new speed limit turned CB into a tactical tool: convoys formed to share speed-trap locations and outrun enforcement. C.W. McCall's "Convoy" hit number one on the Billboard Hot 100 in January 1976, making the trucker a cultural icon. CB radio was the first technology that gave drivers real-time information about road conditions ahead: the analog ancestor of the connected truck.
Motor Carrier Act deregulation: rate collapse and owner-operator explosion
The Motor Carrier Act of 1980 (signed by Jimmy Carter) dismantled ICC rate-setting and opened entry to new carriers. Trucking rates collapsed within a decade; hundreds of major regulated carriers went bankrupt; Teamster membership fell sharply. New owner-operators flooded the market, often leasing their trucks from the carriers they drove for: a structure sociologist Steve Viscelli documented as systematically extracting risk from carriers onto individual drivers.
Qualcomm OmniTRACS: satellite tracking and two-way messaging
Qualcomm launched the OmniTRACS system in 1988: a roof-mounted satellite antenna that gave dispatchers real-time vehicle location and two-way text messaging with drivers. It was the first technology that broke the driver's autonomy on the road, previously a driver who left the terminal was unreachable until they stopped at a payphone. OmniTRACS enabled just-in-time dispatch, GPS route optimization, and the early seeds of the Hours of Service monitoring that would culminate in the ELD mandate.
CDL licensing + Hours of Service reform
The Commercial Motor Vehicle Safety Act of 1986 required all states to implement a federal CDL standard; compliance was mandated by April 1992. For the first time, a single national license gated entry into heavy trucking. Hours of Service rules were revised in 2003, 2013, and 2017, progressively restricting consecutive driving hours and requiring rest periods, addressing a long-documented fatigue problem in long-haul crashes.
Electronic stability control + collision avoidance radar
FMCSA began mandating Electronic Stability Control (ESC) on heavy trucks by 2017, but most major fleets adopted it voluntarily by the mid-2000s after a rash of rollover fatalities. Forward collision avoidance radar (Daimler Detroit Assurance, Volvo Active Safety, Bendix Wingman) entered commercial fleets between 2005-2012, reducing rear-end crashes. These driver-assist systems were the direct technological ancestors of autonomous truck perception stacks.
Freightliner Inspiration: first licensed autonomous truck on US public highways
On May 6, 2015, Daimler Trucks North America unveiled the Freightliner Inspiration Truck at Hoover Dam: the first autonomous commercial truck to receive a Nevada DMV license to operate on open public highways. SAE Level 3 (driver required for on/off-ramp and urban sections, autonomous on highway). The visual: a gleaming white Cascadia rolling across the Hoover Dam without hands on the wheel. The hype cycle had its opening bell.
Otto / Uber Freight: first commercial autonomous freight delivery
On October 25, 2016, Otto (acquired by Uber weeks earlier) delivered tens of thousands of cans of Budweiser from Fort Collins to Colorado Springs: more than a hundred highway miles with the driver in the sleeper berth. The truck was escorted by Colorado State Patrol cars and Otto chase vehicles. It was the first commercially loaded autonomous freight delivery on public US highways. Uber Freight followed in 2017; Otto was eventually shut down after IP litigation with Waymo. This delivery became the canonical "first" in autonomous trucking history: the event that made millions of truck drivers pay attention.
ELD mandate + autonomous trucking startup wave (TuSimple, Embark, Kodiak, Aurora, Waabi)
December 18, 2017: the FMCSA ELD mandate took effect, requiring all commercial trucks to replace paper logbooks with electronic logging devices connected to the engine. The biggest workflow change since CDL licensing, killed the practice of "running" illegal extra hours. Simultaneously, a wave of autonomous trucking startups raised billions: TuSimple, Embark, Aurora (Sequoia, Amazon, T. Rowe Price), Kodiak (Battery, Lightspeed), Waabi (Khosla). The decade of "10 years away" began.
Effect on the workELD mandate effectively reduced average driver utilization: many drivers had been running extra hours informally.
TuSimple "Driver Out" + first-wave bust (Embark 2023, TuSimple 2024)
December 22, 2021: TuSimple completed the first fully driverless Class 8 truck run on public US highways, from a Tucson railyard to a Phoenix distribution center, with no human in the vehicle and no intervention. Then the wave crashed. Embark shut down in March 2023. TuSimple delisted from Nasdaq in early 2024 amid a federal investigation: it had sent autonomous-vehicle trade secrets to Chinese-linked entities after signing a US national security agreement promising not to. The autonomous trucking hype cycle completed its first arc: speculative capital withdrawn, regulatory scrutiny heightened, survivors forced to prove real revenue.
Aurora + Kodiak: real commercial driverless freight on US highways
May 1, 2025: Aurora Innovation launched paid commercial driverless trucking between Dallas and Houston with Hirschbach Motor Lines and Uber Freight, the first revenue-generating, no-driver-in-cab long-haul service on a US interstate highway. Aurora reported more than a thousand autonomous miles in a single run by May 2025 and thousands of customer loads in supervised mode across 3 million autonomous miles pre-launch. Kodiak AI separately delivered the first customer-owned driverless trucks (to Atlas Energy Solutions, Permian Basin off-road routes) in December 2024. Both represent the end of the proof-of-concept phase and the start of actual commercial deployment, measured in loads and revenue, not press releases.
Effect on the workAurora's 2025 commercial fleet is a few dozen trucks. At this scale, employment displacement is negligible. The displacement risk is in the scaling trajectory: if unit economics prove out, the fleet size and route count double annually.
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Browse all rolesHeavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers employment and pay by year
In other countries
The latest figure each country's statistics agency publishes for this job. Each uses its own occupation definition, survey basis and currency, so the numbers are not directly comparable with each other or with the US figures.
Canada (NOC 73300)
- Employment, 2020
- 350,460, Statistics Canada Census 2021 Official statistic Report an errorStatistics Canada Census of Population 2021: number of persons with employment income in NOC 73300 Transport truck drivers, Canada, reference year 2020. A recipients basis (anyone with employment income during the year), slightly broader than a point-in-time employed count. Statistics Canada Open Licence.
- Median pay, 2020
- C$56,000, Statistics Canada Census 2021 Official statistic Report an errorStatistics Canada Census of Population 2021 (Table 98-10-0586): median employment income for NOC 73300 Transport truck drivers, Canada, reference year 2020, full-year full-time workers (the basis comparable to the US OEWS full-time median). Statistics Canada Open Licence.
United Kingdom (UK SOC 8211)
- Employment, 2025
- 204,000, ONS ASHE 2025 Official statistic Report an errorONS Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (Table 14): employee jobs in SOC 8211 Large goods vehicle drivers, United Kingdom, 2025 (ASHE "number of jobs", thousands x1000; excludes self-employment). Open Government Licence v3.0.
- Median pay, 2025
- £39,141, ONS ASHE 2025 Official statistic Report an errorONS Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (Table 14.7a): median gross annual pay for all employee jobs in SOC 8211 Large goods vehicle drivers, United Kingdom, 2025. Open Government Licence v3.0.
Australia (ANZSCO 7331)
- Employment, 2025
- 195,600, ABS Labour Force Survey March 2026 Official statistic Report an errorABS Labour Force Survey (Detailed), table EQ08: employed persons in ANZSCO 7331 Truck Drivers, national (summed across sex and state/territory), annual average of 4 quarterly estimates.
- Median pay, 2025
- A$101,920, ABS Employee Earnings May 2025 Official statistic Report an errorAnnualised (x52) from A$1,960 median weekly earnings. ABS Survey of Employee Earnings and Hours, May 2025: median pay for full-time non-managerial employees paid at the adult rate, before tax. Surfaced via the Jobs and Skills Australia occupation profile for ANZSCO 7331.
View all 27 years of cited US data, each linked to its source
| Year | US employment | Annual pay (median unless marked) | Source | Report |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1920 | 194,000 | n/a | Est., Derived estimate Researched context | Report |
| 1940 | 1,082,000 | n/a | Decennial Census 1940 Researched context | Report |
| 1960 | 1,600,000 | n/a | Decennial Census 1960 Researched context | Report |
| 1980 | 1,700,000 | $22,000 | Est., Money Magazine Researched context | Report |
| 2003 | 1,528,630 | $33,310 | BLS OEWS May 2003 Official statistic | Report |
| 2004 | 1,553,370 | $33,520 | BLS OEWS May 2004 Official statistic | Report |
| 2005 | 1,624,740 | $34,280 | BLS OEWS May 2005 Official statistic | Report |
| 2006 | 1,673,950 | $35,040 | BLS OEWS May 2006 Official statistic | Report |
| 2007 | 1,693,590 | $36,220 | BLS OEWS May 2007 Official statistic | Report |
| 2008 | 1,672,580 | $37,270 | BLS OEWS May 2008 Official statistic | Report |
| 2009 | 1,550,930 | $37,730 | BLS OEWS May 2009 Official statistic | Report |
| 2010 | 1,466,740 | $37,770 | BLS OEWS May 2010 Official statistic | Report |
| 2011 | 1,508,620 | $37,930 | BLS OEWS May 2011 Official statistic | Report |
| 2012 | 1,556,510 | $38,200 | BLS OEWS May 2012 Official statistic | Report |
| 2013 | 1,585,300 | $38,700 | BLS OEWS May 2013 Official statistic | Report |
| 2014 | 1,625,290 | $39,520 | BLS OEWS May 2014 Official statistic | Report |
| 2015 | 1,678,280 | $40,260 | BLS OEWS May 2015 Official statistic | Report |
| 2016 | 1,704,520 | $41,340 | BLS OEWS May 2016 Official statistic | Report |
| 2017 | 1,748,140 | $42,480 | BLS OEWS May 2017 Official statistic | Report |
| 2018 | 1,800,330 | $43,680 | BLS OEWS May 2018 Official statistic | Report |
| 2019 | 1,856,130 | $45,260 | BLS OEWS May 2019 Official statistic | Report |
| 2020 | 1,797,710 | $47,130 | BLS OEWS May 2020 Official statistic | Report |
| 2021 | 1,903,420 | $48,310 | BLS OEWS May 2021 Official statistic | Report |
| 2022 | 1,984,180 | $49,920 | BLS OEWS May 2022 Official statistic | Report |
| 2023 | 2,044,400 | $54,320 | BLS OEWS May 2023 (employment) Official statisticBLS OEWS May 2023 (pay) Official statistic | Report |
| 2024 | 2,070,480 | $57,440 | BLS OEWS May 2024 Official statistic | Report |
| 2025 | 2,062,040 | $58,640 | BLS OEWS May 2025 Official statistic | Report |