Physician assistants
Also called PA, PA-c, Certified physician assistant, Surgical PA, Hospital medicine PA
In brief
In May 2025, BLS counted 162,150 US physician assistants, with median pay of $135,880 a year. Of the BLS counts since 2003, the May 2025 count is the highest. The earliest figure here is an estimate of 3,000 from 1974, not measured the same way as today's count. The last full technology era for physician assistants: Telehealth platforms + point-of-care diagnostics, 2010 to 2020.
What the sources say
Official outlook
BLS projects employment to grow 21.1% from 2025 to 2035.
AI exposure studies
- 12.5% of this job's tasks are exposed to large language models. Not a forecast of job losses. Eloundou and others, 2023
Data as of BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025-35. BLS publishes these counts as yearly survey snapshots and cautions against reading them as a precise trend. In May 2021 BLS changed how it estimates these counts (a model-based method using three years of survey data) and moved fully to the 2018 occupation codes, so part of a change across 2021 can come from the method rather than the work.
Last updated .
Cite this page
Future History. (2026, October 11). Physician assistants: jobs and pay since 1974 [Data set; data as of BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025-35]. https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/29-1071
Future History. "Physician assistants: jobs and pay since 1974." Data as of BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025-35. Last modified October 11, 2026. https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/29-1071.
@misc{futurehistory_29_1071, author = {{Future History}}, title = {Physician assistants: jobs and pay since 1974}, year = {2026}, month = oct, howpublished = {\url{https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/29-1071}}, note = {Last updated 2026-10-11. Data as of BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025-35}, }
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≈ $132,396 in 2024 prices (derived by us, CPI-adjusted)
Eugene Stead assembles the first PA class at Duke University Medical Center: four Navy Hospital Corpsmen who trained in the medical model (internal medicine, surgery, pediatrics, obstetrics rotations) over two years. The curriculum was modeled on the accelerated WWII physician training programs. The choice of military corpsmen was not incidental: Stead had already tried and failed to create a similar advanced role for nurses (the ANA blocked it on curriculum grounds), and the corpsmen brought proven clinical skills the nursing pipeline could not fast-track. The first class graduated in 1967.
The American Academy of Physician Assistants is founded, providing the profession with its first national membership organization. The AAPA immediately begins lobbying for state-level licensing frameworks, at founding, there is no legal basis in most states for a PA to practice; they operate under the supervising physician's license. Over the following decade, all 50 states will pass PA licensing acts, typically modeled on the "delegatory" framework: a PA can do what a physician has authorized them to do, in writing, under a supervision agreement.
The American Medical Association and American Hospital Association formally endorse the PA concept, providing institutional legitimacy that accelerates hospital-system hiring and state-level licensing legislation. The AMA's endorsement was not without ambiguity (it endorsed PAs as supervised practitioners, explicitly not as independent providers) a position the AMA has maintained and extended to opposition to the "Physician Associate" title change and scope-of-practice expansion in the 2020s.
The National Commission on Certification of Physician Assistants (NCCPA) administers the first Physician Assistant National Certifying Examination (PANCE). Establishing a national certification, distinct from state licensure, was the profession's most important credentialing decision: it created a portable credential independent of any individual state's licensing board. By 2025, all 50 states require NCCPA certification for PA licensure. PAs must recertify every 10 years (PANRE) and meet continuing medical education requirements annually: a more rigorous ongoing maintenance-of-certification requirement than most other healthcare professions.
The Health Professions Educational Assistance Act of 1977 explicitly includes physician assistant training programs as eligible for federal funding: the first time federal education policy formally recognized the PA as a distinct healthcare profession requiring dedicated training infrastructure. Federal funding triggers a proliferation of accredited PA programs throughout the late 1970s and 1980s; by 1985 there are approximately 55 accredited programs producing several thousand graduates per year.
The Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1986 extends Medicare Part B reimbursement to PA services in certain settings: the most consequential payment-policy change in PA history. Before 1986, a PA encounter was invisible to Medicare: the supervising physician billed, the PA's work was an overhead cost. After 1986, a PA's services could generate a Medicare claim at 85% of the physician fee schedule. This changed the economic calculus for hiring PAs at every level of the healthcare system. Hospital administrators could now model PA employment as a revenue-generating investment rather than purely a staffing cost.
The Affordable Care Act (ACA) is signed on March 23, 2010. The ACA's coverage expansion, projecting 32+ million newly insured Americans entering the healthcare system, creates immediate pressure on primary care capacity. HRSA and AAMC projections published in 2010-2012 project physician shortages of 45,000-90,000 by 2020. PA program enrollment applications surge. The ACA also expands Medicaid PA reimbursement, closing a gap that had made PA deployment in safety-net settings economically marginal.
The AAPA membership votes to officially rename the profession from "Physician Assistant" to "Physician Associate", keeping the PA acronym but replacing the word "assistant," which the AAPA argues misrepresents the clinical role and contributes to patient confusion about PA qualifications. The AMA immediately opposes the change, arguing it will mislead patients about the training difference between PAs and physicians. Several states' medical boards and hospital credentialing bodies decline to adopt the new title. As of 2024, the legal title in most states remains "Physician Assistant" while AAPA communication uses "Physician Associate"; the occupation exists in a dual-title era that reflects a live policy conflict about PA identity and scope.
BLS projects +20.4% employment growth for physician assistants 2024-2034: one of the fastest projected growth rates in healthcare. The BLS National Employment Matrix projects an increase from 162,700 to 195,800 employed PAs over the decade. Primary demand drivers: aging population requiring more chronic disease management, primary-care physician shortage, ACA coverage expansion, and continued expansion of PA practice authority under team-based care models in most states. Approximately 90% of PA employment is concentrated in the healthcare and social assistance sector, with hospitals, physician offices, and outpatient care centers as the dominant employers.
Will AI replace physician assistants? What the research says
Each figure is stated by the named source; we publish no forecasts of our own. Where sources disagree, we show the disagreement rather than an average.
Each figure is stated by the named source; we publish no forecasts of our own. Where sources disagree, the spread is the honest signal.
What's changing day to day for physician assistants
Three parts of your work where AI is already doing real lifting, and what stays yours.
AI is sitting alongside you hereReview and approve AI-drafted SOAP notes and After Visit Summaries (AVS) generated by ambient documentation tools (Dragon Copilot, Abridge, Suki AI) after patient encounters, verifying each clinical data element against the Linked Sources conversation transcript, correcting diagnostic inaccuracies or omitted findings, and signing the finalized note as the PA of record before it is filed to the EHR.
Review and approve AI-drafted SOAP notes and After Visit Summaries (AVS) generated by ambient documentation tools (Dragon Copilot, Abridge, Suki AI) after patient encounters, verifying each clinical data element against the Linked Sources conversation transcript, correcting diagnostic inaccuracies or omitted findings, and signing the finalized note as the PA of record before it is filed to the EHR.[8],[4],[12]
Ambient AI now handles the drafting step for clinical notes: the JAMA 2025 multi-site RCT found ambient scribes cut after-hours EHR documentation ("pajama time") by 62% for licensed clinicians including APPs. AAPA's 2025 Clinician Survey found documentation burden is the single most-cited PA job dissatisfier; this is the AI tool category with the clearest immediate ROI. Shift from dictation to expert review: treat AI note drafts as a first-pass transcript summary and scan for the specific errors these tools make (omitted pertinent negatives, imprecise symptom timing, and incorrect medication dosing) so your review is faster and more accurate than re-dictating from scratch.
AI is sitting alongside you hereManage prior authorization workflows for prescribed medications and procedures, completing EHR-native prior authorization requests using Epic PA automation or Surescripts Prior Authorization Automation for qualifying medications
Manage prior authorization workflows for prescribed medications and procedures, completing EHR-native prior authorization requests using Epic PA automation or Surescripts Prior Authorization Automation for qualifying medications; authoring clinical justification narratives for complex or specialty-drug PAs not handled by automated approvals; and reviewing AI-drafted PA letters for clinical accuracy before submission to insurers.[13],[4]
Surescripts Prior Authorization Automation achieved median approval times for automatable PA categories: a meaningful fraction of the few hours/week that AAPA surveys report PAs spend on PA-related tasks is now automated at forward-thinking health systems. The complex specialty-drug and off-label cases still require a PA-authored clinical narrative with specific diagnostic justification. Build fluency with your EHR's PA tracking workflows and develop efficient clinical justification templates for the high-frequency PA types in your specialty.
AI is sitting alongside you hereConduct AI-assisted pre-visit preparation, reviewing Notable Health AI-gathered patient-reported outcomes (PROs), pre-visit questionnaire responses, and automatically-populated intake data in the EHR before the encounter
Conduct AI-assisted pre-visit preparation, reviewing Notable Health AI-gathered patient-reported outcomes (PROs), pre-visit questionnaire responses, and automatically-populated intake data in the EHR before the encounter; identifying care gaps, abnormal values, and outstanding referral results pre-loaded by the AI; and using this structured pre-charting to focus the encounter on clinical assessment and patient communication rather than data collection.[14]
AI pre-visit intake tools like Notable Health are reducing the data-collection burden of outpatient encounters: patients complete structured intake via conversational AI, and the data auto-populates the EHR before the PA enters the room. This shifts the PA's prep time from data entry to clinical interpretation. Build a rapid review protocol for AI-structured pre-visit summaries: train yourself to immediately identify which pre-populated values are clinically actionable vs. routine, and arrive at encounters with a clinical hypothesis already forming from the structured intake.
Where physician assistants go next
Natural next steps for someone with your foundation: not exits, evolutions.
- Medical and Health Services Managers
- US median pay
- $123,860 (May 2025)
- BLS outlook 2025-35
- +24.2%
- Health Informatics SpecialistsNo timeline for this role yet
- Nurse Practitioners
- US median pay
- $132,300 (May 2025)
- BLS outlook 2025-35
- +41%
What each move takes
Medical and Health Services Managers
Experienced PAs who develop operational, financial, and strategic leadership experience are well positioned for PA clinical director, medical director, and Vice President of Advanced Practice roles within health systems: roles classified under Medical and Health Services Managers. As ambient AI documentation tools (Dragon Copilot, Abridge, Suki, Heidi Health) and AI clinical decision support platforms are deployed across APP-staffed clinics and hospital services, health systems urgently need APP clinical leaders who understand both the clinical domain and the organizational change management required for responsible AI adoption. The stepping stones are PA team lead, APP department chair, quality committee leadership, or medical staff advisory roles.
How has the work of physician assistants changed since 1965?
The tools that defined the work, one line per era. Select an era to see how it reshaped the work.
Clinical craft tools (stethoscope, otoscope, reflex hammer) + paper charts
The first PAs practiced with the same analog toolkit as physicians: stethoscope, sphygmomanometer, otoscope, reflex hammer, paper-based encounter documentation. What distinguished PA practice from physician practice in this era was not the tools but the supervision structure: every PA order required co-signature or delegation protocol. Paper charts meant no information traveled with the patient; each encounter was an island. The absence of electronic records made it difficult to demonstrate population-level outcomes for PA-delivered care, which complicated the profession's case for expanded reimbursement.
Effect on the workAAPA and physician researchers throughout the 1970s documented that PA-delivered primary care achieved outcomes comparable to physician-delivered care on measurable metrics (appropriate prescription rates, patient satisfaction, preventive care delivery) laying the clinical-evidence foundation for federal reimbursement policy.
Medicare Part B direct reimbursement (1986) + early EMR pilots
Until 1986, Medicare paid for PA services only indirectly, by reimbursing the supervising physician, who paid the PA as an employee expense. The Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1986 extended Medicare Part B coverage to PA services in certain settings, creating a direct billing pathway for the first time. This was not just a revenue change; it transformed the market structure. PA employment was no longer purely an internal physician-practice cost decision: it was now a revenue-generating choice. Hospital systems, previously skeptical of hiring PAs, began modeling the economics. The early 1990s saw the first large-scale EMR pilots (Epic, Cerner) entering hospital markets; PAs at major health systems were among the first non-physician clinicians to enter orders and notes digitally.
Effect on the workMedicare Part B reimbursement triggered a roughly 40% increase in PA program enrollment over the following decade and shifted the primary PA employer from private physician practices toward hospital systems and group practices.
Electronic health records (Epic, Cerner) + clinical decision support
The HIPAA era (1996) accelerated the shift to electronic documentation across healthcare. For PAs, EHR adoption meant something specific: the ability to enter orders, document notes, and review records without a physician co-present. Epic's order-entry system with embedded clinical decision support (drug-drug interaction alerts, dosing calculators, best-practice advisories) gave PAs a real-time safety net that partially compensated for the reduced physician proximity of protocol-driven independent practice. The HITECH Act (2009, part of the ACA stimulus) provided $27 billion in incentive payments for EHR adoption, driving near-universal adoption in US hospitals by 2015.
Effect on the workEHR adoption correlated with a measurable increase in PA scope of practice in hospital settings, particularly in surgical specialties, where PAs increasingly performed first-assist roles, managed post-operative order sets, and conducted inpatient rounds with minimal real-time physician oversight.
Telehealth platforms (Teladoc, Amwell) + point-of-care diagnostics
The Affordable Care Act (2010) and the primary-care shortage it revealed drove rapid expansion of telehealth platforms designed to be staffed by non-physician providers. PAs were early adopters: the synchronous video consultation model (virtual encounter, EHR note, e-prescription) matched PA training well and allowed staffing ratios unworkable in brick-and-mortar practice. Concurrently, point-of-care diagnostics (handheld ultrasound: Butterfly Network launched 2018; rapid molecular tests; portable spirometry) moved diagnostic tools from the radiology department to the bedside, expanding what PAs could assess and interpret without specialist referral.
Effect on the workTelehealth created net new PA employment in direct-to-consumer and employer-sponsored platforms outside the traditional physician-practice employment model; by 2019, a small share of practicing PAs worked in telehealth-primary or telehealth-enabled roles.
AI clinical documentation (Nuance DAX, Abridge) + LLM decision support + prior-auth automation
The COVID-19 pandemic compressed five years of telehealth adoption into twelve months and accelerated an AI investment wave in clinical documentation. Nuance DAX (Dragon Ambient eXperience), launched commercially in 2020 and acquired by Microsoft in 2022, allows PAs to conduct a patient encounter while the system generates a structured SOAP note from ambient audio, reducing documentation time by 30-50% in early clinical trials. Abridge (2018, health system partnerships from 2022) and similar systems are now in deployment across major US academic medical centers. For PAs, who have historically spent disproportionate time on documentation relative to billable encounter volume, ambient scribing represents the most significant workflow change since EHR adoption. LLM-powered decision support tools (Epic Cognitive Computing, IBM Watson clinical modules, and open-model deployments) are beginning to surface differential diagnosis suggestions, treatment protocol references, and drug interaction flags directly in the EHR workflow.
Effect on the workEarly adopter data (Nuance DAX pilot sites, 2021-2023) suggests ambient scribing reduces per-encounter documentation time: material for PAs managing many patient encounters per day. The released time is not currently translating to reduced headcount but to increased patient panel capacity and reduced after-hours chart-completion burden.
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Browse all rolesPhysician Assistants employment and pay by year
View all 26 years of cited US data, each linked to its source
| Year | US employment | Annual pay (median unless marked) | Source | Report |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1974 | 3,000 | n/a | Est., Wikipedia Researched context | Report |
| 1985 | 22,000 | n/a | Est., BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook Researched context | Report |
| 2000 | 58,000 | $61,910 | Est., BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook (employment) Researched contextBLS OEWS 2000 (pay) Official statistic | Report |
| 2003 | 60,030 | $65,670 | BLS OEWS May 2003 Official statistic | Report |
| 2004 | 59,470 | $69,410 | BLS OEWS May 2004 Official statistic | Report |
| 2005 | 63,350 | $72,030 | BLS OEWS May 2005 Official statistic | Report |
| 2006 | 62,960 | $74,980 | BLS OEWS May 2006 Official statistic | Report |
| 2007 | 67,160 | $78,450 | BLS OEWS May 2007 Official statistic | Report |
| 2008 | 71,950 | $81,230 | BLS OEWS May 2008 Official statistic | Report |
| 2009 | 76,900 | $84,420 | BLS OEWS May 2009 Official statistic | Report |
| 2010 | 81,420 | $86,410 | BLS OEWS May 2010 (employment) Official statisticBLS OEWS 2010 (pay) Official statistic | Report |
| 2011 | 83,540 | $88,660 | BLS OEWS May 2011 Official statistic | Report |
| 2012 | 83,640 | $90,930 | BLS OEWS May 2012 Official statistic | Report |
| 2013 | 88,110 | $92,970 | BLS OEWS May 2013 Official statistic | Report |
| 2014 | 91,670 | $95,820 | BLS OEWS May 2014 Official statistic | Report |
| 2015 | 98,470 | $98,180 | BLS OEWS May 2015 Official statistic | Report |
| 2016 | 104,050 | $101,480 | BLS OEWS May 2016 Official statistic | Report |
| 2017 | 109,220 | $104,860 | BLS OEWS May 2017 Official statistic | Report |
| 2018 | 114,710 | $108,610 | BLS OEWS May 2018 Official statistic | Report |
| 2019 | 120,090 | $112,260 | BLS OEWS May 2019 Official statistic | Report |
| 2020 | 125,280 | $115,390 | BLS OEWS May 2020 (employment) Official statisticBLS OEWS May 2020 (pay) Official statistic | Report |
| 2021 | 132,940 | $121,530 | BLS OEWS May 2021 Official statistic | Report |
| 2022 | 140,910 | $126,010 | BLS OEWS May 2022 Official statistic | Report |
| 2023 | 145,740 | $130,020 | BLS OEWS May 2023 Official statistic | Report |
| 2024 | 155,540 | $133,260 | BLS OEWS May 2024 Official statistic | Report |
| 2025 | 162,150 | $135,880 | BLS OEWS May 2025 Official statistic | Report |