Skip to sources
Time Machine

Physician assistants

Also called PA, PA-c, Certified physician assistant, Surgical PA, Hospital medicine PA

In brief

In May 2025, BLS counted 162,150 US physician assistants, with median pay of $135,880 a year. Of the BLS counts since 2003, the May 2025 count is the highest. The earliest figure here is an estimate of 3,000 from 1974, not measured the same way as today's count. The last full technology era for physician assistants: Telehealth platforms + point-of-care diagnostics, 2010 to 2020.

What the sources say

Official outlook

BLS projects employment to grow 21.1% from 2025 to 2035.

BLS Employment Projections 2025-35

AI exposure studies

Data as of BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025-35. BLS publishes these counts as yearly survey snapshots and cautions against reading them as a precise trend. In May 2021 BLS changed how it estimates these counts (a model-based method using three years of survey data) and moved fully to the 2018 occupation codes, so part of a change across 2021 can come from the method rather than the work.

Last updated .

Cite this page
APA

Future History. (2026, October 11). Physician assistants: jobs and pay since 1974 [Data set; data as of BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025-35]. https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/29-1071

Chicago

Future History. "Physician assistants: jobs and pay since 1974." Data as of BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025-35. Last modified October 11, 2026. https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/29-1071.

BibTeX

@misc{futurehistory_29_1071, author = {{Future History}}, title = {Physician assistants: jobs and pay since 1974}, year = {2026}, month = oct, howpublished = {\url{https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/29-1071}}, note = {Last updated 2026-10-11. Data as of BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025-35}, }

The access date is today's date on your device.

drag to travel through time
19752000now
2026
Known then as Physician Assistant (Duke model, no formal title yet)
Known then as Physician Assistant (PA): pre-certification era
Known then as Physician Assistant (PA): NCCPA PANCE-certified
Known then as Physician Associate (PA): AAPA preferred term (AMA contested; both titles in legal use)
Known today as Physician Associate (PA): AAPA preferred term (AMA contested; both titles in legal use)
Projected to still be called Physician Associate (PA): AAPA preferred term (AMA contested; both titles in legal use)
Data from the May 2025 survey
US Employment
162K
Est.

Stated in source: BLS OEWS

Official statistic
Report an error
Median Annual Wage
$135,880

≈ $132,396 in 2024 prices (derived by us, CPI-adjusted)

Official statistic
Report an error
Beat · 1965

Eugene Stead assembles the first PA class at Duke University Medical Center: four Navy Hospital Corpsmen who trained in the medical model (internal medicine, surgery, pediatrics, obstetrics rotations) over two years. The curriculum was modeled on the accelerated WWII physician training programs. The choice of military corpsmen was not incidental: Stead had already tried and failed to create a similar advanced role for nurses (the ANA blocked it on curriculum grounds), and the corpsmen brought proven clinical skills the nursing pipeline could not fast-track. The first class graduated in 1967.

Beat · 1968

The American Academy of Physician Assistants is founded, providing the profession with its first national membership organization. The AAPA immediately begins lobbying for state-level licensing frameworks, at founding, there is no legal basis in most states for a PA to practice; they operate under the supervising physician's license. Over the following decade, all 50 states will pass PA licensing acts, typically modeled on the "delegatory" framework: a PA can do what a physician has authorized them to do, in writing, under a supervision agreement.

Beat · 1972

The American Medical Association and American Hospital Association formally endorse the PA concept, providing institutional legitimacy that accelerates hospital-system hiring and state-level licensing legislation. The AMA's endorsement was not without ambiguity (it endorsed PAs as supervised practitioners, explicitly not as independent providers) a position the AMA has maintained and extended to opposition to the "Physician Associate" title change and scope-of-practice expansion in the 2020s.

Beat · 1973

The National Commission on Certification of Physician Assistants (NCCPA) administers the first Physician Assistant National Certifying Examination (PANCE). Establishing a national certification, distinct from state licensure, was the profession's most important credentialing decision: it created a portable credential independent of any individual state's licensing board. By 2025, all 50 states require NCCPA certification for PA licensure. PAs must recertify every 10 years (PANRE) and meet continuing medical education requirements annually: a more rigorous ongoing maintenance-of-certification requirement than most other healthcare professions.

Beat · 1977

The Health Professions Educational Assistance Act of 1977 explicitly includes physician assistant training programs as eligible for federal funding: the first time federal education policy formally recognized the PA as a distinct healthcare profession requiring dedicated training infrastructure. Federal funding triggers a proliferation of accredited PA programs throughout the late 1970s and 1980s; by 1985 there are approximately 55 accredited programs producing several thousand graduates per year.

Beat · 1986

The Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1986 extends Medicare Part B reimbursement to PA services in certain settings: the most consequential payment-policy change in PA history. Before 1986, a PA encounter was invisible to Medicare: the supervising physician billed, the PA's work was an overhead cost. After 1986, a PA's services could generate a Medicare claim at 85% of the physician fee schedule. This changed the economic calculus for hiring PAs at every level of the healthcare system. Hospital administrators could now model PA employment as a revenue-generating investment rather than purely a staffing cost.

Beat · 2010

The Affordable Care Act (ACA) is signed on March 23, 2010. The ACA's coverage expansion, projecting 32+ million newly insured Americans entering the healthcare system, creates immediate pressure on primary care capacity. HRSA and AAMC projections published in 2010-2012 project physician shortages of 45,000-90,000 by 2020. PA program enrollment applications surge. The ACA also expands Medicaid PA reimbursement, closing a gap that had made PA deployment in safety-net settings economically marginal.

Beat · 2021

The AAPA membership votes to officially rename the profession from "Physician Assistant" to "Physician Associate", keeping the PA acronym but replacing the word "assistant," which the AAPA argues misrepresents the clinical role and contributes to patient confusion about PA qualifications. The AMA immediately opposes the change, arguing it will mislead patients about the training difference between PAs and physicians. Several states' medical boards and hospital credentialing bodies decline to adopt the new title. As of 2024, the legal title in most states remains "Physician Assistant" while AAPA communication uses "Physician Associate"; the occupation exists in a dual-title era that reflects a live policy conflict about PA identity and scope.

Beat · 2024

BLS projects +20.4% employment growth for physician assistants 2024-2034: one of the fastest projected growth rates in healthcare. The BLS National Employment Matrix projects an increase from 162,700 to 195,800 employed PAs over the decade. Primary demand drivers: aging population requiring more chronic disease management, primary-care physician shortage, ACA coverage expansion, and continued expansion of PA practice authority under team-based care models in most states. Approximately 90% of PA employment is concentrated in the healthcare and social assistance sector, with hospitals, physician offices, and outpatient care centers as the dominant employers.

How to read this number

OEWS is a point-in-time survey snapshot, not a continuous time series; BLS advises against using it for year-over-year trend comparison.

Each dot is a cited figure over time; the dotted line only links them (values between aren't measured). Hollow dots are estimates.

Official statistic: Copied by a script from a statistics agency table or a published study's table, not retyped by hand. BLS figures and the forecast and exposure tables are also re-checked against that table on every data run. Researched context: Researched from the cited source rather than copied from it by a script, so it is not machine-checked yet. Spot a mistake? Each figure has a “Report an error” link.

Cited forecasts · present → 2035

Will AI replace physician assistants? What the research says

Each figure is stated by the named source; we publish no forecasts of our own. Where sources disagree, we show the disagreement rather than an average.

Each figure is stated by the named source; we publish no forecasts of our own. Where sources disagree, the spread is the honest signal.

What published forecasts say
Forecast change in the number of people doing this work, as published by each named source. Bars share one scale on every role, centred on zero and reaching the end at ±30%. Grey marks a small change, 3% or less either way.
BLS Employment Projections 2025-35
→ 2035
+21.1%
BLS National Employment Matrix, 2025-35 cycle, line for SOC 29-1071 (Physician assistants): 168.9 thousand jobs in 2025, projected 204.6 thousand in 2035, a change of +35.7 thousand (+21.1%). Matrix employment counts all jobs in the occupation, including self-employed workers (1.4% of this occupation in 2025). The average for all occupations in this cycle is +3.5%.
Official statisticReport an error
How exposed is this work to AI (research measures)
Scores as published by each study. Each row says what it measures. These measure what AI could technically do, not forecasts of jobs lost.
Eloundou et al. (2023), "GPTs are GPTs"
2023 study · Share of tasks exposed to LLMs (β, human-rated)
12.5%
of tasks
What this measures

Published occupation-level exposure from the paper's occ_level.csv for O*NET-SOC 29-1071.00 Physician Assistants. Shown: human-rated β = 0.125, the share of the occupation's tasks an LLM could do in at least half the time at equal quality, counting tasks that need LLM-powered software at half weight (β = E1 + 0.5 × E2). Other published measures for this occupation: human-rated α (LLM alone) 0 and γ (all LLM-assisted) 0.25; GPT-4-rated β 0.375. This measures how much of the work an LLM could touch, not how many jobs disappear.

Official statisticReport an error
Today, in this role

What's changing day to day for physician assistants

Three parts of your work where AI is already doing real lifting, and what stays yours.

AI is sitting alongside you hereReview and approve AI-drafted SOAP notes and After Visit Summaries (AVS) generated by ambient documentation tools (Dragon Copilot, Abridge, Suki AI) after patient encounters, verifying each clinical data element against the Linked Sources conversation transcript, correcting diagnostic inaccuracies or omitted findings, and signing the finalized note as the PA of record before it is filed to the EHR.

Review and approve AI-drafted SOAP notes and After Visit Summaries (AVS) generated by ambient documentation tools (Dragon Copilot, Abridge, Suki AI) after patient encounters, verifying each clinical data element against the Linked Sources conversation transcript, correcting diagnostic inaccuracies or omitted findings, and signing the finalized note as the PA of record before it is filed to the EHR.[8],[4],[12]

Where your edge is

Ambient AI now handles the drafting step for clinical notes: the JAMA 2025 multi-site RCT found ambient scribes cut after-hours EHR documentation ("pajama time") by 62% for licensed clinicians including APPs. AAPA's 2025 Clinician Survey found documentation burden is the single most-cited PA job dissatisfier; this is the AI tool category with the clearest immediate ROI. Shift from dictation to expert review: treat AI note drafts as a first-pass transcript summary and scan for the specific errors these tools make (omitted pertinent negatives, imprecise symptom timing, and incorrect medication dosing) so your review is faster and more accurate than re-dictating from scratch.

AI is sitting alongside you hereManage prior authorization workflows for prescribed medications and procedures, completing EHR-native prior authorization requests using Epic PA automation or Surescripts Prior Authorization Automation for qualifying medications

Manage prior authorization workflows for prescribed medications and procedures, completing EHR-native prior authorization requests using Epic PA automation or Surescripts Prior Authorization Automation for qualifying medications; authoring clinical justification narratives for complex or specialty-drug PAs not handled by automated approvals; and reviewing AI-drafted PA letters for clinical accuracy before submission to insurers.[13],[4]

Where your edge is

Surescripts Prior Authorization Automation achieved median approval times for automatable PA categories: a meaningful fraction of the few hours/week that AAPA surveys report PAs spend on PA-related tasks is now automated at forward-thinking health systems. The complex specialty-drug and off-label cases still require a PA-authored clinical narrative with specific diagnostic justification. Build fluency with your EHR's PA tracking workflows and develop efficient clinical justification templates for the high-frequency PA types in your specialty.

AI is sitting alongside you hereConduct AI-assisted pre-visit preparation, reviewing Notable Health AI-gathered patient-reported outcomes (PROs), pre-visit questionnaire responses, and automatically-populated intake data in the EHR before the encounter

Conduct AI-assisted pre-visit preparation, reviewing Notable Health AI-gathered patient-reported outcomes (PROs), pre-visit questionnaire responses, and automatically-populated intake data in the EHR before the encounter; identifying care gaps, abnormal values, and outstanding referral results pre-loaded by the AI; and using this structured pre-charting to focus the encounter on clinical assessment and patient communication rather than data collection.[14]

Tools picking this up
Where your edge is

AI pre-visit intake tools like Notable Health are reducing the data-collection burden of outpatient encounters: patients complete structured intake via conversational AI, and the data auto-populates the EHR before the PA enters the room. This shifts the PA's prep time from data entry to clinical interpretation. Build a rapid review protocol for AI-structured pre-visit summaries: train yourself to immediately identify which pre-populated values are clinically actionable vs. routine, and arrive at encounters with a clinical hypothesis already forming from the structured intake.

Where physician assistants go next

Natural next steps for someone with your foundation: not exits, evolutions.

What each move takes

A direction you could grow

Medical and Health Services Managers

Experienced PAs who develop operational, financial, and strategic leadership experience are well positioned for PA clinical director, medical director, and Vice President of Advanced Practice roles within health systems: roles classified under Medical and Health Services Managers. As ambient AI documentation tools (Dragon Copilot, Abridge, Suki, Heidi Health) and AI clinical decision support platforms are deployed across APP-staffed clinics and hospital services, health systems urgently need APP clinical leaders who understand both the clinical domain and the organizational change management required for responsible AI adoption. The stepping stones are PA team lead, APP department chair, quality committee leadership, or medical staff advisory roles.

What you'd add
· AI governance for clinical operations: evaluating ambient documentation and clinical decision support tools, overseeing PA-specific AI adoption programs, monitoring model performance
· Regulatory and credentialing: PA collaborative practice agreement negotiation, privileging, and credentialing administration by specialty and state
What it takesSome new skills to pick up
Tools of the era

How has the work of physician assistants changed since 1965?

The tools that defined the work, one line per era. Select an era to see how it reshaped the work.

  • Clinical craft tools (stethoscope, otoscope, reflex hammer) + paper charts

    The first PAs practiced with the same analog toolkit as physicians: stethoscope, sphygmomanometer, otoscope, reflex hammer, paper-based encounter documentation. What distinguished PA practice from physician practice in this era was not the tools but the supervision structure: every PA order required co-signature or delegation protocol. Paper charts meant no information traveled with the patient; each encounter was an island. The absence of electronic records made it difficult to demonstrate population-level outcomes for PA-delivered care, which complicated the profession's case for expanded reimbursement.

    Effect on the work

    AAPA and physician researchers throughout the 1970s documented that PA-delivered primary care achieved outcomes comparable to physician-delivered care on measurable metrics (appropriate prescription rates, patient satisfaction, preventive care delivery) laying the clinical-evidence foundation for federal reimbursement policy.

  • Medicare Part B direct reimbursement (1986) + early EMR pilots

    Until 1986, Medicare paid for PA services only indirectly, by reimbursing the supervising physician, who paid the PA as an employee expense. The Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1986 extended Medicare Part B coverage to PA services in certain settings, creating a direct billing pathway for the first time. This was not just a revenue change; it transformed the market structure. PA employment was no longer purely an internal physician-practice cost decision: it was now a revenue-generating choice. Hospital systems, previously skeptical of hiring PAs, began modeling the economics. The early 1990s saw the first large-scale EMR pilots (Epic, Cerner) entering hospital markets; PAs at major health systems were among the first non-physician clinicians to enter orders and notes digitally.

    Effect on the work

    Medicare Part B reimbursement triggered a roughly 40% increase in PA program enrollment over the following decade and shifted the primary PA employer from private physician practices toward hospital systems and group practices.

  • Electronic health records (Epic, Cerner) + clinical decision support

    The HIPAA era (1996) accelerated the shift to electronic documentation across healthcare. For PAs, EHR adoption meant something specific: the ability to enter orders, document notes, and review records without a physician co-present. Epic's order-entry system with embedded clinical decision support (drug-drug interaction alerts, dosing calculators, best-practice advisories) gave PAs a real-time safety net that partially compensated for the reduced physician proximity of protocol-driven independent practice. The HITECH Act (2009, part of the ACA stimulus) provided $27 billion in incentive payments for EHR adoption, driving near-universal adoption in US hospitals by 2015.

    Effect on the work

    EHR adoption correlated with a measurable increase in PA scope of practice in hospital settings, particularly in surgical specialties, where PAs increasingly performed first-assist roles, managed post-operative order sets, and conducted inpatient rounds with minimal real-time physician oversight.

  • Telehealth platforms (Teladoc, Amwell) + point-of-care diagnostics

    The Affordable Care Act (2010) and the primary-care shortage it revealed drove rapid expansion of telehealth platforms designed to be staffed by non-physician providers. PAs were early adopters: the synchronous video consultation model (virtual encounter, EHR note, e-prescription) matched PA training well and allowed staffing ratios unworkable in brick-and-mortar practice. Concurrently, point-of-care diagnostics (handheld ultrasound: Butterfly Network launched 2018; rapid molecular tests; portable spirometry) moved diagnostic tools from the radiology department to the bedside, expanding what PAs could assess and interpret without specialist referral.

    Effect on the work

    Telehealth created net new PA employment in direct-to-consumer and employer-sponsored platforms outside the traditional physician-practice employment model; by 2019, a small share of practicing PAs worked in telehealth-primary or telehealth-enabled roles.

  • AI clinical documentation (Nuance DAX, Abridge) + LLM decision support + prior-auth automation

    The COVID-19 pandemic compressed five years of telehealth adoption into twelve months and accelerated an AI investment wave in clinical documentation. Nuance DAX (Dragon Ambient eXperience), launched commercially in 2020 and acquired by Microsoft in 2022, allows PAs to conduct a patient encounter while the system generates a structured SOAP note from ambient audio, reducing documentation time by 30-50% in early clinical trials. Abridge (2018, health system partnerships from 2022) and similar systems are now in deployment across major US academic medical centers. For PAs, who have historically spent disproportionate time on documentation relative to billable encounter volume, ambient scribing represents the most significant workflow change since EHR adoption. LLM-powered decision support tools (Epic Cognitive Computing, IBM Watson clinical modules, and open-model deployments) are beginning to surface differential diagnosis suggestions, treatment protocol references, and drug interaction flags directly in the EHR workflow.

    Effect on the work

    Early adopter data (Nuance DAX pilot sites, 2021-2023) suggests ambient scribing reduces per-encounter documentation time: material for PAs managing many patient encounters per day. The released time is not currently translating to reduced headcount but to increased patient panel capacity and reduced after-hours chart-completion burden.

Part of Healthcare · see all 69 roles →
Different role?

See the same long-arc view for your own profession.

Browse the directory by industry, or search by title or SOC code.

Browse all roles

Physician Assistants employment and pay by year

On record since1965
Latest US employment162,150 (May 2025)Source: BLS OEWS May 2025Official statisticReport an error
Latest US median pay$135,880 (May 2025)Source: BLS OEWS May 2025Official statisticReport an error
Outlook+21.1% by 2035Source: BLS Employment Projections 2025-35Official statisticReport an error
View all 26 years of cited US data, each linked to its source
YearUS employmentAnnual pay (median unless marked)SourceReport
19743,000n/aEst., Wikipedia Researched contextReport
198522,000n/aEst., BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook Researched contextReport
200058,000$61,910Est., BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook (employment) Researched contextBLS OEWS 2000 (pay) Official statisticReport
200360,030$65,670BLS OEWS May 2003 Official statisticReport
200459,470$69,410BLS OEWS May 2004 Official statisticReport
200563,350$72,030BLS OEWS May 2005 Official statisticReport
200662,960$74,980BLS OEWS May 2006 Official statisticReport
200767,160$78,450BLS OEWS May 2007 Official statisticReport
200871,950$81,230BLS OEWS May 2008 Official statisticReport
200976,900$84,420BLS OEWS May 2009 Official statisticReport
201081,420$86,410BLS OEWS May 2010 (employment) Official statisticBLS OEWS 2010 (pay) Official statisticReport
201183,540$88,660BLS OEWS May 2011 Official statisticReport
201283,640$90,930BLS OEWS May 2012 Official statisticReport
201388,110$92,970BLS OEWS May 2013 Official statisticReport
201491,670$95,820BLS OEWS May 2014 Official statisticReport
201598,470$98,180BLS OEWS May 2015 Official statisticReport
2016104,050$101,480BLS OEWS May 2016 Official statisticReport
2017109,220$104,860BLS OEWS May 2017 Official statisticReport
2018114,710$108,610BLS OEWS May 2018 Official statisticReport
2019120,090$112,260BLS OEWS May 2019 Official statisticReport
2020125,280$115,390BLS OEWS May 2020 (employment) Official statisticBLS OEWS May 2020 (pay) Official statisticReport
2021132,940$121,530BLS OEWS May 2021 Official statisticReport
2022140,910$126,010BLS OEWS May 2022 Official statisticReport
2023145,740$130,020BLS OEWS May 2023 Official statisticReport
2024155,540$133,260BLS OEWS May 2024 Official statisticReport
2025162,150$135,880BLS OEWS May 2025 Official statisticReport
Embed this timeline on your site

Free for any site. Paste this where the timeline should appear; it stays interactive, every datapoint stays cited, and it sets no cookies on your page. How embedding works

<iframe src="https://futurehistory.earth/embed/29-1071"
  width="100%" height="430" style="border:0"
  title="Physician Assistants, a Future History timeline"
  loading="lazy"></iframe>
<p style="font-size:13px;margin:4px 0 0"><a href="https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/29-1071">Physician Assistants: jobs and pay over time</a>, from Future History</p>

See all roles in Healthcare