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Orthopedic surgeons

Official title Orthopedic Surgeons, Except Pediatric (SOC 29-1242)

Also called Orthopaedic surgeon, Orthopedist, Ortho surgeon, Joint replacement surgeon, Sports medicine surgeon

In brief

In May 2025, BLS counted 14,100 US orthopedic surgeons, with median pay of $358,550 a year. Of the BLS counts since 2021, the highest was 19,060, in May 2022. The earliest figure here is an estimate of 16,600 from 1985, not measured the same way as today's count. The last full technology era for orthopedic surgeons: Robotic-assisted arthroplasty, 2006 to 2020.

What the sources say

Official outlook

BLS projects employment to grow 4% from 2025 to 2035.

BLS Employment Projections 2025-35

AI exposure studies

Data as of BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025-35. BLS publishes these counts as yearly survey snapshots and cautions against reading them as a precise trend.

Last updated .

Cite this page
APA

Future History. (2026, October 11). Orthopedic surgeons: jobs and pay since 1984 [Data set; data as of BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025-35]. https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/29-1242

Chicago

Future History. "Orthopedic surgeons: jobs and pay since 1984." Data as of BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025-35. Last modified October 11, 2026. https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/29-1242.

BibTeX

@misc{futurehistory_29_1242, author = {{Future History}}, title = {Orthopedic surgeons: jobs and pay since 1984}, year = {2026}, month = oct, howpublished = {\url{https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/29-1242}}, note = {Last updated 2026-10-11. Data as of BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025-35}, }

The access date is today's date on your device.

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17501775180018251850187519001925195019752000now
2026
Known then as Bone-setter / Surgeon (pre-specialty era)
Known then as Orthopaedic Surgeon (general surgery subdivision)
Known then as Orthopaedic Surgeon (emerging independent specialty)
Known then as Orthopedic Surgeon (ABOS board-certified specialty)
Known then as Orthopedic Surgeons, Except Pediatric (BLS SOC 29-1242)
Known today as Orthopedic Surgeons, Except Pediatric (BLS SOC 29-1242)
Projected to still be called Orthopedic Surgeons, Except Pediatric (BLS SOC 29-1242)
Data from the May 2025 survey
US Employment
14K
Est.

Stated in source: BLS OEWS

Official statistic
Report an error
Median Annual Wage
$358,550
Est.

≈ $349,357 in 2024 prices (derived by us, CPI-adjusted)

Official statistic
Report an error
Beat · 1887

The American Orthopaedic Association (AOA) is founded -- the first formally organized national body for orthopedic surgeons in the United States. It met annually for fellowship and the advancement of orthopedic science, but was a small, exclusive group; the broader professional organization (AAOS) would not exist for another 46 years.

Beat · 1933

The American Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeons is founded at the Palmer House in Chicago. The AAOS charter was drafted in October 1931 by seven surgeons at a meeting of the Clinical Orthopaedic Society; the first AAOS meeting was held in 1933. World War I had demonstrated the need for a national society to include all practicing orthopedic surgeons rather than the small fellowship of the AOA.

Beat · 1934

The American Board of Orthopaedic Surgery is founded, issuing the first formal board certification requirements for the specialty. The ABOS was established at the Palmer House in Chicago. Initial requirements (published 1936) specified AMA-approved medical school graduation, high ethical standing, and specialty training. By 1938 a full three-year residency requirement was in effect. The ABOS certification transformed orthopedic surgery from a specialty interest into a credentialed profession with enforced training standards.

Beat · 1944

World War II produces a generation of orthopedic surgeons trained in fracture care and wound management at industrial scale. The advances from the war years -- intramedullary nailing of femoral shaft fractures (Kuntscher technique), penicillin for wound infection, blood transfusion for hemorrhagic shock, and experience with spinal injury management -- were brought back to civilian practice beginning in 1945, rapidly elevating the standard of fracture care and driving demand for trained orthopedic surgeons in hospitals nationwide.

Beat · 1983

Orthopedic surgery ranked first among all physician specialties in median net income in the 1983-84 AMA National Physicians' Practice Costs and Income Survey -- ahead of cardiovascular surgery and all other specialties. The high compensation reflected both the procedure-intensity of the work (elective arthroplasty, trauma call, arthroscopic sports surgery) and the favorable reimbursement environment before the managed care compression of the late 1980s-1990s. Orthopedic surgery has remained the highest-compensated or second-highest-compensated physician specialty in most compensation surveys from 1980 to the present.

Beat · 2007

Total hip arthroplasty was named "the operation of the century" in a 2007 Lancet editorial, recognizing that Charnley's procedure had produced consistently good outcomes over 40 years and had become one of the most frequently performed and cost-effective elective operations in medicine. By 2007, approximately 200,000 total hip arthroplasties and 450,000 total knee arthroplasties were being performed annually in the United States, numbers that would double again in the following 15 years.

Beat · 2024

The AAOS AI Position Statement (2024-2025) explicitly addresses robotic surgery, AI-assisted pre-operative planning, and AI fracture detection as tools that support but do not replace the orthopedic surgeon's operative judgment. The statement classifies surgical AI as FDA-regulated Software as a Medical Device (SaMD) and affirms that the surgeon bears legal and ethical responsibility for all surgical decisions regardless of robotic or AI assistance. This is the authoritative professional society position on the AI augmentation question in orthopedic surgery.

How to read this number

OEWS is a point-in-time survey snapshot, not a continuous time series; BLS advises against using it for year-over-year trend comparison.

Each dot is a cited figure over time; the dotted line only links them (values between aren't measured). Hollow dots are estimates.

Official statistic: Copied by a script from a statistics agency table or a published study's table, not retyped by hand. BLS figures and the forecast and exposure tables are also re-checked against that table on every data run. Researched context: Researched from the cited source rather than copied from it by a script, so it is not machine-checked yet. Spot a mistake? Each figure has a “Report an error” link.

Cited forecasts · present → 2035

Will AI replace orthopedic surgeons? What the research says

Each figure is stated by the named source; we publish no forecasts of our own. Where sources disagree, we show the disagreement rather than an average.

Each figure is stated by the named source; we publish no forecasts of our own. Where sources disagree, the spread is the honest signal.

What published forecasts say
Forecast change in the number of people doing this work, as published by each named source. Bars share one scale on every role, centred on zero and reaching the end at ±30%. Grey marks a small change, 3% or less either way.
BLS Employment Projections 2025-35
→ 2035
+4%
BLS National Employment Matrix, 2025-35 cycle, line for SOC 29-1242 (Orthopedic surgeons, except pediatric): 15.5 thousand jobs in 2025, projected 16.1 thousand in 2035, a change of +0.6 thousand (+4.0%). Matrix employment counts all jobs in the occupation, including self-employed workers (5.5% of this occupation in 2025). The average for all occupations in this cycle is +3.5%.
Official statisticReport an error
How exposed is this work to AI (research measures)
Scores as published by each study. Each row says what it measures. These measure what AI could technically do, not forecasts of jobs lost.
Eloundou et al. (2023), "GPTs are GPTs"
2023 study · Share of tasks exposed to LLMs (β, human-rated)
23.3%
of tasks
What this measures

Published occupation-level exposure from the paper's occ_level.csv for O*NET-SOC 29-1242.00 Orthopedic Surgeons, Except Pediatric. Shown: human-rated β = 0.233, the share of the occupation's tasks an LLM could do in at least half the time at equal quality, counting tasks that need LLM-powered software at half weight (β = E1 + 0.5 × E2). Other published measures for this occupation: human-rated α (LLM alone) 0.067 and γ (all LLM-assisted) 0.4; GPT-4-rated β 0.333. This measures how much of the work an LLM could touch, not how many jobs disappear.

Official statisticReport an error
Today, in this role

What's changing day to day for orthopedic surgeons

Three parts of your work where AI is already doing real lifting, and what stays yours.

AI is sitting alongside you hereDocument clinic encounters, operative notes, and surgical letters using ambient AI documentation: using Dragon Copilot or Abridge to capture post-op visit notes, fracture clinic encounters, and new patient consultations from ambient audio

Document clinic encounters, operative notes, and surgical letters using ambient AI documentation: using Dragon Copilot or Abridge to capture post-op visit notes, fracture clinic encounters, and new patient consultations from ambient audio; reviewing and attesting AI-drafted operative reports that include implant manufacturer, model, lot number, component sizing, and intraoperative findings; and generating AI-assisted prior authorization letters for elective surgical procedures and durable medical equipment.[10],[11],[1]

Where your edge is

Orthopedic surgery generates some of the most structured documentation in all of medicine: operative notes must capture specific implant data (manufacturer, model, catalog number, lot number, component sizes, fixation method) with legal accuracy for device registry reporting and malpractice protection. Dragon Copilot in orthopedic settings requires customized templates that reliably capture implant-specific fields; default ambient transcription misses structured implant data unless prompted with device-specific vocabulary. Verify implant fields manually against the operative implant log: this is a patient safety requirement that AI ambient scribing does not yet handle reliably without structured prompting.

AI is sitting alongside you herePerform robotic-assisted total knee arthroplasty (TKA) and total hip arthroplasty (THA) using Stryker Mako, Zimmer Biomet ROSA, or Smith+Nephew CORI, reviewing the AI-generated 3D pre-operative plan (implant sizing, component positioning, limb alignment targets) derived from CT or intraoperative bone morphing, then using haptic boundary enforcement during bone preparation to stay within the planned resection zone, with real-time kinematic data informing soft tissue balancing decisions before final implant seating.

Perform robotic-assisted total knee arthroplasty (TKA) and total hip arthroplasty (THA) using Stryker Mako, Zimmer Biomet ROSA, or Smith+Nephew CORI, reviewing the AI-generated 3D pre-operative plan (implant sizing, component positioning, limb alignment targets) derived from CT or intraoperative bone morphing, then using haptic boundary enforcement during bone preparation to stay within the planned resection zone, with real-time kinematic data informing soft tissue balancing decisions before final implant seating.[12],[5],[13],[14]

Where your edge is

Robotic-assisted TKA with Mako achieves superior limb alignment (JBJS 2023 multicenter RCT) and lower aseptic revision rates: this is augmentation with measurable outcome benefit. The critical surgeon skill is interrogating the pre-op plan before the robot touches the patient: validating CT segmentation accuracy, adjusting implant sizing when the bone morphing model conflicts with intraoperative anatomy, and overriding haptic boundaries when unexpected findings require improvised technique. AAOS robotics courses and formal proctored training on each platform are required: robot-naive surgeons cannot apply for hospital credentialing without documented procedural training.

AI is sitting alongside you hereManage post-operative recovery and musculoskeletal care pathway, prescribing AI-driven digital rehabilitation programs (Force Therapeutics) for total joint replacement and ACL reconstruction patients

Manage post-operative recovery and musculoskeletal care pathway, prescribing AI-driven digital rehabilitation programs (Force Therapeutics) for total joint replacement and ACL reconstruction patients; reviewing AI-collected patient-reported outcomes (KOOS, HOOS, PROMIS) and exercise adherence metrics between scheduled visits; identifying patients with abnormal recovery trajectories (stiffness, instability, pain patterns inconsistent with timeline) for early intervention; and using population-level outcome dashboards to benchmark personal surgical performance against peer registry data.[15],[16],[4]

Where your edge is

Force Therapeutics (deployed at Hospital for Special Surgery, Mayo Clinic, hundreds of orthopedic practices) delivers video-guided rehabilitation and collects KOOS/HOOS/PROMIS scores at standardized time points, replacing the opaque post-op recovery where surgeons received no data between appointments. This is a genuine augmentation: surgeons who use Force Therapeutics can detect early stiffness and intervene with targeted manipulation or therapy adjustment before outcomes are compromised. Build proficiency interpreting the outcome dashboards and understanding what recovery trajectories actually predict revision vs. expected variance.

Where orthopedic surgeons go next

Natural next steps for someone with your foundation: not exits, evolutions.

What each move takes

A direction you could grow

Medical and Health Services Managers

Orthopedic surgeons with department leadership experience (orthopedic section chief, surgical quality committee chair, ambulatory surgery center medical director) are well positioned for Medical and Health Services Manager roles including CMO, VP of Surgical Services, and ASC executive medical director. As robotic surgery systems (Mako, ROSA, ExcelsiusGPS) and AI-powered outcome registries (AJRR) proliferate, health systems need physician executives who understand surgical AI procurement, OR efficiency optimization, and value-based care contracts for musculoskeletal episodes of care. Orthopedic CMO roles at hospital systems and large orthopedic practice groups are among the best-compensated physician executive roles outside of academic medical center CMO positions. BLS projects Medical and Health Services Managers at +29% growth 2024-2034.

What you'd add
  • · Value-based musculoskeletal care: Bundled Payments for Care Improvement (BPCI) episode structure for joint replacement, gainsharing models with hospitals, CMS Comprehensive Care for Joint Replacement (CJR) quality metrics
  • · OR operations and efficiency: surgical block time optimization, robotic surgery credentialing standards, case cost benchmarking (implant cost reduction strategy with orthopedic device vendors)
  • · Healthcare executive credentials: MBA (healthcare management focus) or AHA/ACHE healthcare executive certification; Joint Commission surgical leadership coursework
  • · Surgical AI governance: evaluating robotic surgery platform outcomes data, AJRR registry participation, AI pre-op planning validation methodology
What it takesSome new skills to pick up
Tools of the era

How has the work of orthopedic surgeons changed since 1741?

The tools that defined the work, one line per era. Select an era to see how it reshaped the work.

  • Splints, braces, and manipulation (pre-anesthesia era)

    The orthopedic craft Andry named in 1741 was entirely non-surgical: the bone-setter's tools were wooden splints, leather braces, traction frames, and skilled manual manipulation. Bone fractures were immobilized with plaster of Paris (introduced by Dutch military surgeon Antonius Mathijsen in 1851) or improvised splints. The orthopedic surgeon's professional ancestor in this era was the bone-setter: a skilled craftsman who might reset a dislocated shoulder or reduce a Colles' fracture, but who stopped decisively short of the surgical field.

  • Ether anesthesia and antisepsis (Crawford Long 1842, Morton 1846, Lister 1867)

    Ether anesthesia, publicly demonstrated by William Morton at Massachusetts General Hospital on October 16, 1846, and Joseph Lister's carbolic acid antiseptic technique (1867) are the two enabling technologies that made modern surgery conceivable. Before anesthesia, bone and joint surgery was limited by the patient's ability to tolerate pain; before antisepsis, it was limited by infection mortality. After both, orthopedic surgery could move from amputation and splinting toward reconstruction. The first internal fixation of a fracture -- holding broken bone together with metal hardware -- became technically possible in this era, though infection remained the major barrier. The combination transformed orthopedic surgery from a craft into a scientific discipline, attracting the first generation of surgeons who would specialize in the musculoskeletal system.

  • X-ray (Roentgen 1895) and early fracture fixation hardware

    Wilhelm Roentgen's discovery of the X-ray in November 1895 gave orthopedic surgeons their first non-invasive window into the skeleton. Within months, X-ray was in use in major hospitals for fracture diagnosis; within a decade, it was standard in orthopedic practice. The ability to see the position of fracture fragments before and after reduction transformed operative planning and allowed surgeons to verify fixation without opening the wound. World War I accelerated the development of fracture fixation hardware: intramedullary nailing (Gerhard Kuntscher, 1940) and external fixation frameworks were developed and refined in response to industrial-scale limb injuries. The Smith-Petersen mold arthroplasty for hip disease (1925) was the first attempt at reconstructive joint surgery, using glass and later Vitallium alloy cups to resurface the femoral head.

  • Total joint arthroplasty implants (Charnley hip 1962, Insall knee 1974-1978)

    John Charnley's low-friction arthroplasty, introduced at Wrightington Hospital in 1962, combined a small stainless steel femoral head, high-density polyethylene acetabular socket, and polymethylmethacrylate (PMMA) bone cement into the first reliably successful total hip replacement. The procedure was transformative: it converted a profoundly disabling condition into an elective operation with predictable pain relief and functional restoration. Within a decade, total hip arthroplasty was being performed in the United States at scale. The total knee followed: Frank Gunston's polycentric knee (1969), and the Insall-Burstein posterior-stabilized condylar design (1978) and the Total Condylar Knee (Walker, Ranawat, and Insall, 1974-1978) created the modern TKA. By the early 1980s, total joint arthroplasty had become the economic engine of the orthopedic specialty, driving a large and growing demand for fellowship-trained joint replacement surgeons.

    Effect on the work

    The arthroplasty revolution drove sustained workforce expansion: the number of practicing U.S. orthopedic surgeons grew between the early 1970s and 1985, as residency programs expanded to train surgeons capable of performing the new high-volume elective procedures.

  • Arthroscopy (Watanabe No. 21, 1959 production; fiber-optic era from 1970)

    Masaki Watanabe developed the first arthroscope for clinical use at Tokyo Teishin Hospital in the 1950s. His No. 21 arthroscope entered production in 1959, and he performed the first arthroscopic meniscectomy in 1962. The International Arthroscopy Association was established in 1972 with Watanabe as inaugural president. North American surgeons, including Robert Jackson (Canada) and Richard O'Connor (U.S.), learned the technique from Watanabe and introduced it to North America in the early 1970s. Fiber-optic technology (Watanabe No. 25, 1970) and surgical cameras projecting images onto monitors transformed arthroscopy from a diagnostic curiosity into a surgical platform by the mid-1970s. The clinical impact was enormous: meniscus surgery, which had required an open arthrotomy with weeks of recovery, became a same-day outpatient procedure. ACL reconstruction and rotator cuff repair followed into the arthroscopic domain through the 1980s and 1990s, creating the sports surgery subspecialty and extending orthopedic practice into a large new patient population of recreational athletes.

    Effect on the work

    Arthroscopic surgery drove the creation of the sports medicine orthopedic subspecialty and contributed substantially to the workforce growth of the 1985-2000 period. Orthopedic surgeons who mastered arthroscopic technique could serve a much larger patient population (sports injuries, acute meniscus tears in patients of all ages) than arthroplasty alone allowed.

  • MRI (clinical adoption 1980s): soft-tissue diagnosis transformed

    The first clinically useful MRI image of a patient was produced in 1980. Clinical MRI became available in major academic medical centers through the mid-1980s and in community hospitals through the late 1980s and 1990s. For orthopedic surgery, MRI was the most important diagnostic tool since the X-ray: it made soft tissues visible. ACL tears, meniscus injuries, rotator cuff tears, labral pathology, and cartilage lesions -- conditions that previously required diagnostic arthroscopy (an operation) to confirm -- could now be diagnosed from an outpatient scan. This reshaped the orthopedic practice model: the surgeon's pre-operative information became far more complete, allowing better patient selection and operative planning. It also expanded the patient population, because many soft-tissue injuries that had been clinically uncertain could now be accurately diagnosed and triaged. The combination of MRI diagnosis and arthroscopic treatment created the modern sports medicine practice as a high-volume ambulatory specialty.

  • Computer-assisted surgery (CAS) and fluoroscopic navigation

    Computer-assisted orthopedic surgery (CAOS) entered clinical practice in the mid-to-late 1990s with fluoroscopy-based navigation systems for total knee arthroplasty and pedicle screw placement in spine surgery. These systems tracked surgical instruments in real time relative to patient anatomy registered from fluoroscopic images or pre-operative CT scans, displayed on a workstation monitor. By the early 2000s, major manufacturers (Stryker, Zimmer, Brainlab) had navigation systems in clinical use at high-volume academic and community centers. The technology demonstrated that mechanical alignment could be improved over manual technique, but adoption remained limited: the systems were expensive, added many minutes of operative time, and required technical expertise. CAS represents the conceptual and technical foundation on which the robotic surgery generation of the 2010s-2020s was built.

  • Robotic-assisted arthroplasty (Mako Surgical 2006, first generation)

    Stryker Mako SmartRobotics, initially developed by MAKO Surgical Corp and acquired by Stryker in 2013, received FDA clearance for unicompartmental knee arthroplasty in 2006 and for total hip arthroplasty in 2010. The Mako system combined CT-based 3D pre-operative planning with intraoperative haptic boundary enforcement: a robotic arm physically constrained the oscillating bone saw within the planned resection zone, preventing the surgeon from removing more bone than planned. This moved surgical precision from a manual skill -- which varied with surgeon experience, fatigue, and technique -- to a mechanically enforced parameter. By 2018-2019, Zimmer Biomet (ROSA) and Smith+Nephew (CORI) had introduced competing platforms. Aseptic revision rate 0.8% robotic versus 2.1% conventional.

    Effect on the work

    Robotic surgery did not reduce orthopedic surgeon employment -- it increased capital investment requirements per procedure, driving consolidation toward high-volume centers equipped with expensive robotic systems. By 2024, robotic assistance was used in a sizeable share of total knee and hip arthroplasties nationally, with rapid adoption curves documented at health systems that adopted the platforms.

  • AI fracture detection, AR surgical guidance, and digital care pathways (Gleamer, Augmedics, Force Therapeutics, Dragon Copilot)

    The late 2010s and early 2020s brought a cluster of AI and digital tools that extend the orthopedic surgeon's reach across the full care continuum. Gleamer BoneView (FDA-cleared 2022) automatically detects and annotates fractures on X-ray, reducing time-to-diagnosis for occult fractures in emergency settings. Augmedics xvision (FDA-cleared 2019) superimposes real-time 3D spinal anatomy as an augmented reality overlay in the surgeon's field of view during pedicle screw placement, eliminating repeated fluoroscopy and improving screw accuracy. Ambient documentation tools (Dragon Copilot, Abridge) capture orthopedic clinic encounters and post-operative notes without requiring the surgeon to type, addressing the administrative documentation burden that has driven surgeon burnout in high-volume practices. Force Therapeutics delivers AI-guided digital rehabilitation programs for post-operative joint replacement patients, collecting KOOS and HOOS outcomes at standardized time points and feeding surgeon-facing dashboards for performance benchmarking. Collectively these tools represent an augmentation rather than displacement thesis: surgeons who adopt them are demonstrating measurably better clinical outcomes and operating more efficiently than those who do not.

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Orthopedic Surgeons, Except Pediatric employment and pay by year

On record since1741
Latest US employment14,100 (May 2025)Source: BLS OEWS May 2025Official statisticReport an error
Latest US median pay$358,550 (May 2025)Source: BLS OEWS May 2025Official statisticReport an error
Outlook+4% by 2035Source: BLS Employment Projections 2025-35Official statisticReport an error
View all 12 years of cited US data, each linked to its source
YearUS employmentAnnual pay (median unless marked)SourceReport
1984n/a$175,000Est., PMC / Health Care Financing Review Researched contextReport
198516,600n/aEst., Dartmouth Atlas of Musculoskeletal… Researched contextReport
199018,700n/aEst., Dartmouth Atlas of Musculoskeletal… Researched contextReport
199521,400n/aEst., Dartmouth Atlas of Musculoskeletal… Researched contextReport
2000n/a$350,000Est., BLS OOH Researched contextReport
200825,464n/aEst., Becker's ASC Review Researched contextReport
201830,141n/aEst., American Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeons Researched contextReport
202116,260n/aBLS OEWS May 2021 Official statisticReport
202219,060n/aBLS OEWS May 2022 Official statisticReport
202314,820n/aBLS OEWS May 2023 Official statisticReport
202414,160n/aBLS OEWS May 2024 Official statisticReport
202514,100$358,550BLS OEWS May 2025 Official statisticReport
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