Skip to sources
Time Machine

Airline Pilots, Copilots, and Flight Engineers

Scrub through 118years of this role's history, from when it first emerged, through every wave of technology that reshaped it, to the cited projections for where it's heading next.

2026drag to travel through time
1925195019752000now
2026
Known today as Airline Pilots, Copilots, and Flight Engineers (BLS SOC 53-2011)
Latest actual · 2024
99K
OEWS is a point-in-time survey snapshot, not a continuous time series; BLS advises against using it for year-over-year trend comparison.
Latest actual · 2024
$226,600
Source: BLS-OEWS
Each dot is a cited figure over time; the dotted line only links them (values between aren't measured). Hollow dots are estimates.
Beat · 2025

European regulators pause their single-pilot and extended-minimum-crew research, concluding that current technology cannot match the safety of a two-pilot crew. Combined with the US two-pilot mandate, the pause is the clearest signal that the cockpit's two remaining seats are durable for the foreseeable future: a century of automation removed the navigator and the flight engineer, but the regulatory floor of two qualified pilots has held, and AI tools are augmenting planning and monitoring rather than replacing the crew.

Tools of the era

The tools that defined the work

Select an era to see how it reshaped the work.

  • Glass cockpit + FMS (two-person crew, flight engineer eliminated)

    The glass cockpit ended the flight engineer. In 1982 Boeing certified the 757 and 767 with cockpits designed for two pilots: cathode-ray-tube displays replaced banks of analog dials, and on-board computers monitored engine and system parameters that once required a dedicated specialist to watch. The Boeing 747-400, which entered service in 1989, is the symbolic hinge: externally identical to the classic 747 but with its flight engineer's station simply gone, its cockpit reduced from roughly 971 controls to about 365 through digital electronics. The Flight Management System (FMS) let two pilots program and fly a full route profile that previously needed three sets of hands.

    Effect on the work

    The glass cockpit eliminated the flight engineer position across the airline fleet through the 1980s and 1990s as three-crew aircraft retired, removing the cockpit's third seat permanently. The two-pilot crew that remained has proven the durable floor.

    Work toolChanging equipment
  • Tablet flight-planning apps (ForeFlight 2009, Garmin Pilot 2012)

    ForeFlight, launched in 2009, and Garmin Pilot, launched in 2012, put a full preflight planning suite on a cockpit iPad: aggregated weather (METARs, TAFs, SIGMETs), NOTAMs, route and fuel computation, and direct electronic flight-plan filing. For the airline pilot these consumer-grade apps complemented airline dispatch systems and made self-briefing far faster, automating the laborious manual gathering of weather and notices that once consumed much of preflight preparation. The pilot's judgment moved up a level: from collecting the data to interpreting an aggregated brief.

    AI audit toolsPattern detection
  • AI trajectory optimization + predictive maintenance (Thales FlytOptim, Honeywell Forge)

    The current frontier is AI in the operational loop rather than the control loop. Thales FlytOptim, deployed from 2024, uses AI prediction on live weather and aircraft-mass data to compute fuel-optimal vertical paths and sends an alternative trajectory to the cockpit for the crew to approve and fly; Corsair trials reported about 2% fuel savings and 80% pilot adoption within weeks. Honeywell Forge combines flight-efficiency analytics with predictive engine-health monitoring, surfacing component anomalies before a flight rather than after a failure. These tools augment the pilot's planning and monitoring; they do not touch the legally mandated act of two qualified humans flying the aircraft.

    Effect on the work

    AI augmentation here changes how pilots plan and monitor, not how many pilots are required. The binding constraint on headcount is regulatory (the two-pilot mandate), not the capability of the optimization tools.

    Work toolChanging equipment
Projection cone · present → 2035

What credible sources project

Scrub the slider past now to anchor each scenario on the scrubber. The spread is the range of futures credible sources project for this role.

Employment outlook
Projected change in the number of people doing this work.
BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook 2024-34
2034
+4%
BLS Employment Projections, industry-occupation matrix plus replacement-need modeling. The 2024-34 cycle projects roughly average growth (about 3 to 4%) for airline and commercial pilots, with about 11,700 openings per year for the broader pilot group, most of them replacement needs as a large cohort hits the mandatory retirement age of 65. The projection assumes continued passenger-demand growth and the two-pilot regulatory floor holding; it does not model a regulatory shift to single-pilot operations, which would change the picture materially but which regulators have so far declined to permit.
EASA single-pilot operations research pause (2025)
2035
0%
Regulatory-trajectory signal rather than a statistical forecast. The clearest medium-term threat to airline pilot headcount is not AI replacing the pilot but a regulatory move to reduced-crew or single-pilot operations, which would cut the cockpit from two seats to one on some flights. In 2025 European regulators paused their extended-minimum-crew and single-pilot research after concluding that current technology cannot match the safety of a two-pilot crew, and US law and FAA rule continue to mandate two qualified pilots on scheduled passenger flights. On this trajectory, headcount per aircraft holds flat through the early 2030s. The cargo and freight segment is where single-pilot or remote operation is most likely to be trialed first, so the risk is concentrated there rather than across passenger flying.
AI task exposure
Share of the role’s tasks that researchers estimate AI can do. This is a measure of task exposure, not a forecast of jobs lost.
Eloundou et al. — "GPTs are GPTs" (2023)
2030
25%
of tasks
GPT-4 task-by-task LLM exposure labeling on O*NET tasks. The pilot role scores in the low-to-moderate range for LLM exposure: the dominant tasks (physically flying the aircraft, hand-flying in degraded conditions, crew resource management under time pressure, commanding in-flight emergencies) require real-time multi-sensory presence and judgment that language models cannot provide. The exposed share is concentrated in the planning and documentation tasks (weather interpretation, fuel planning, post-flight reporting) that AI tools already augment. This is a task-exposure measure, not a forecast of jobs lost: it indicates where AI assists the pilot, not where it replaces the pilot.
Today, in this role

What's shifting in the work right now

The historical view above shows how this role has moved. This is the present-day detail: which AI tools are picking up which tasks, where the edge still is, and the natural directions this work can grow.

What's changing in your day

Three parts of your work where AI is already doing real lifting, and what stays yours.

AI is sitting alongside you hereFile instrument flight plans with ATC, compute weight-and-balance using Electronic Flight Bag (EFB) tools, and confirm fuel loads match dispatch release before accepting the aircraft for departure.

File instrument flight plans with ATC, compute weight-and-balance using Electronic Flight Bag (EFB) tools, and confirm fuel loads match dispatch release before accepting the aircraft for departure.[6]

Where your edge is

Retain manual W&B calculation skills; EFB software can silently carry incorrect aircraft configuration data, and the PIC bears legal responsibility for every departure weight regardless of tool output.

AI is sitting alongside you hereEvaluate AI-generated trajectory optimization suggestions from tools like Thales FlytOptim or Honeywell Forge Flight Efficiency, approve or modify proposed vertical path changes for fuel savings, then coordinate with ATC to execute.

Evaluate AI-generated trajectory optimization suggestions from tools like Thales FlytOptim or Honeywell Forge Flight Efficiency, approve or modify proposed vertical path changes for fuel savings, then coordinate with ATC to execute.[7],[8]

Where your edge is

Treat optimization outputs as advisory: learn to recognize when wind-model lag or ATC congestion makes the algorithm's suggestion impractical, and document rejections to improve future system accuracy.

AI is sitting alongside you hereComplete post-flight documentation: digital flight logs, fuel burn actuals, MEL items discovered in flight, and passenger incident reports via airline operations platform, feeding data back into airline analytics systems.

Complete post-flight documentation: digital flight logs, fuel burn actuals, MEL items discovered in flight, and passenger incident reports via airline operations platform, feeding data back into airline analytics systems.[1]

Where your edge is

Write accurate, factual incident narratives; vague entries reduce the value of airline safety databases and can leave pilots personally exposed if a follow-on investigation reveals a gap between the report and the event.

Where this role is heading

Natural next steps for someone with your foundation: not exits, evolutions.

A direction you could grow

Transportation, Storage, and Distribution Managers

Transportation, Storage, and Distribution Managers oversee logistics networks, a role where deep operational knowledge of aviation constraints (ETOPS, weight-and-balance, dangerous goods rules) translates to credibility and early promotion. Airlines and cargo operators actively recruit senior captains into Director of Operations and Director of Flight Standards roles. The management layer is more AI-resilient than line flying.

What you'd add
  • · MBA or transportation management graduate coursework
  • · Airline Operations Control Center (AOCC) dispatch and irregular operations experience
  • · Fleet planning and scheduling software (Jeppesen Crew Pairing, Sabre AirCentre)
  • · FAR Part 119 Director of Operations certificate of authority
What it takesSome new skills to pick up
Share this year
Drops anyone you send it to straight into 2026.
Preview card
Part of Transportation · see all 20roles →
Different role?

See the same long-arc view for your own profession.

Browse the directory by industry, or search by title or SOC code. New roles ship every few weeks. Every profile cites every claim.

Browse all roles

The data behind this timeline

On record since1918
Latest tracked employment99,300 (US, 2024)
Latest median pay$226,600 (2024)
Outlook+4% by 2034 (BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook 2024-34)
View all 25 cited data points
YearUS employmentMedian annual paySource
19266,000n/aESTIMATE
195835,000$20,000ESTIMATE
2000117,000n/aBLS-OEWS
200379,770n/aBLS-OEWS
200478,490n/aBLS-OEWS
200576,240n/aBLS-OEWS
200675,810n/aBLS-OEWS
200778,250$103,590BLS-OEWS
200877,090$111,680BLS-OEWS
200974,420$106,240BLS-OEWS
201068,580$103,210BLS-OEWS
201168,350$105,580BLS-OEWS
201266,270$114,200BLS-OEWS
201373,030$115,190BLS-OEWS
201475,760$118,140BLS-OEWS
201581,350$117,290BLS-OEWS
201681,520$127,820BLS-OEWS
201784,070$137,330BLS-OEWS
201882,890$140,340BLS-OEWS
201984,520$147,220BLS-OEWS
202083,550$160,970BLS-OEWS
202181,310$202,180BLS-OEWS
202289,580$211,790BLS-OEWS
202393,670$219,140BLS-OEWS
202499,300$226,600BLS-OEWS
Embed this timeline on your site

Free for any site. Paste this where the timeline should appear; it stays interactive, every datapoint stays cited, and it sets no cookies on your page. How embedding works

<iframe src="https://futurehistory.earth/embed/53-2011"
  width="100%" height="430" style="border:0"
  title="Airline Pilots, Copilots, and Flight Engineers, a Future History timeline"
  loading="lazy"></iframe>

See all roles in Transportation