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Commercial pilots

In brief

In May 2025, BLS counted 47,630 US commercial pilots, with median pay of $123,220 a year. Of the BLS counts since 2003, the highest was 52,750, in May 2023. The earliest figure here is a Census count of 16,000 from 1940, not measured the same way as today's count. The last full technology era for commercial pilots: ADS-B surveillance + 1500-hour ATP mandate, 2009 to 2020.

Official statistic: latest count and pay, highest count.Researched context: earliest figure.

What the sources say

Official outlook

BLS projects employment to grow 5.2% from 2025 to 2035.

BLS Employment Projections 2025-35

Official statistic

AI exposure studies

  • 21.6% of this job's tasks are exposed to large language models. Not a forecast of job losses. Eloundou and others, 2023 Official statistic

Data as of BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025-35. BLS publishes these counts as yearly survey snapshots and cautions against reading them as a precise trend. In May 2021 BLS changed how it estimates these counts (a model-based method using three years of survey data) and moved fully to the 2018 occupation codes, so part of a change across 2021 can come from the method rather than the work.

Last updated .

Cite this page
APA

Future History. (2026, October 11). Commercial pilots: jobs and pay since 1929 [Data set; data as of BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025-35]. https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/53-2012

Chicago

Future History. "Commercial pilots: jobs and pay since 1929." Data as of BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025-35. Last modified October 11, 2026. https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/53-2012.

BibTeX

@misc{futurehistory_53_2012, author = {{Future History}}, title = {Commercial pilots: jobs and pay since 1929}, year = {2026}, month = oct, howpublished = {\url{https://futurehistory.earth/timeline/53-2012}}, note = {Last updated 2026-10-11. Data as of BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025-35}, }

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1925195019752000now
2026
Known then as Airmail Pilot / Aviator (US Postal Service era, no federal licensing)
Known then as Licensed Airman / Transport Pilot (Air Commerce Act certification era)
Known then as Commercial / Transport Pilot (Civil Aeronautics Board regulated era)
Known then as Commercial Pilot / Airline Pilot (deregulation era, combined BLS category)
Known then as Commercial Pilots (BLS SOC 53-2012, non-scheduled operations)
Known today as Commercial Pilots (BLS SOC 53-2012, non-scheduled operations)
Projected to still be called Commercial Pilots (BLS SOC 53-2012, non-scheduled operations)
Data from the May 2025 survey
US Employment
48K

Stated in source: BLS OEWS

Official statistic
Report an error
Median Annual Wage
$123,220
Est.

≈ $120,061 in 2024 prices (derived by us, CPI-adjusted)

Official statistic
Report an error
Beat · 1918

May 15, 1918: The US Post Office inaugurates scheduled Airmail Service between Washington DC, Philadelphia, and New York. The inaugural flight by Lt. George Boyle ends 14 miles in the wrong direction. Despite this start, the service builds its pilot workforce rapidly from WWI veterans. The mortality rate is severe: 34 of the first generation of airmail pilots die in the service. Pay is approximately $3,000-$6,000 annually on a mileage basis. These pilots are the founding generation of the commercial aviation profession in the United States.

Beat · 1925

February 2, 1925: President Coolidge signs the Air Mail Act (Kelly Act), transferring airmail routes from the Post Office to private carriers. Five initial contracts go to Colonial Air Transport, National Air Transport, Robertson Aircraft Corporation, Western Air Express, and Varney Air Lines. These contractors -- forced to hire, schedule, and retain pilots as employees rather than government workers -- create the first sustained private-sector commercial pilot jobs. The contracted pay rate is $3.00 per pound of mail per 1,000 miles. Robertson Aircraft, which employs Charles Lindbergh as chief pilot, is one of the contracts awarded.

Beat · 1926

May 20, 1926: President Coolidge signs the Air Commerce Act, the first comprehensive federal aviation law. The Act gives the Aeronautics Branch of the Department of Commerce authority to test and license pilots, certify aircraft airworthiness, and investigate accidents. William P. MacCracken, Jr. becomes the first head of the Aeronautics Branch and reportedly the first recipient of an Aeronautics Branch pilot certification. The commercial pilot license -- distinct from the restricted private pilot license -- becomes the credential defining the profession. Aviation is now a federally regulated occupation for the first time.

Beat · 1931

July 27, 1931: David L. Behncke and 23 other pilots found the Air Line Pilots Association (ALPA) in Chicago. Flying in this period is described as "a perilous occupation" -- pilots lack meaningful labor protections. The union's early priority is flight-time limits and safety standards rather than wages. In 1934, ALPA wins its first major victory: the National Labor Board limits pilots to 85 hours per month flying time (Decision 83), incorporated into the Air Mail Act of 1934.

Beat · 1934

June 12, 1934: Congress passes the Air Mail Act of 1934 (Black-McKellar Act), restructuring the airline industry after the "Airmail Scandal" -- accusations that the Hoover administration had colluded with carriers on mail contracts. The Act incorporates "Decision 83" of the National Labor Board, establishing maximum flight hours and minimum wages for pilots, and enabling unionization. Airlines reorganize under new names to comply (United Aircraft becomes United Airlines; Eastern Air Transport becomes Eastern Air Lines). The Act accelerates the shift from airmail revenue to passenger revenue as the airline industry's financial foundation.

Beat · 1978

October 24, 1978: President Carter signs the Airline Deregulation Act, abolishing the Civil Aeronautics Board's authority to set fares and routes. The CAB is formally abolished in 1985. Deregulation triggers an initial hiring boom as new carriers enter the market (PeopleExpress, Midway, New York Air), then a wave of bankruptcies: between 1978 and 2001, eight major airlines and over 100 smaller carriers fail. The airline industry emerges reshaped: hub-and-spoke routing dominates, regional airlines grow rapidly as feeders for major carriers, and pilot wages bifurcate sharply between major-carrier captains (very well paid) and regional first officers (poorly paid).

Beat · 1982

The Boeing 767 enters commercial service (September 8, 1982, with United Airlines), introducing the flight management system to wide-body commercial aviation. The FMS automates route management and performance calculations previously done by navigators and flight engineers. The 767's two-pilot crew -- the first twin-aisle two-crew airliner -- establishes the model that replaces three-crew cockpits across the industry through the 1980s and 1990s, eliminating flight engineer positions on new-generation aircraft.

Beat · 2009

February 12, 2009: Colgan Air Flight 3407 crashes near Buffalo, New York, killing all 49 on board. The NTSB investigation finds that Captain Marvin Renslow had previously failed three FAA checkrides (a fact he had concealed from Colgan Air), and that First Officer Rebecca Shaw had accumulated 2,244 total flight hours (774 turbine hours) -- well below the experience levels common at major carriers. Both crew members also showed signs of fatigue. Congress responds with the Airline Safety and Federal Aviation Administration Extension Act of 2010, which requires all first officers on Part 121 scheduled carriers to hold ATP certificates -- effectively requiring 1,500 hours minimum for airline first officers instead of the previous 250-hour commercial certificate minimum. The rule takes effect in 2013 and immediately constrains pilot supply as regional carriers compete for a smaller pool of ATP-eligible pilots. Starting wages at regional airlines are famously as low as $20,000-$24,000 at the time, drawing congressional attention and media coverage about "flying cheap."

Beat · 2024

Boeing's 2025-2044 Pilot and Technician Outlook projects that commercial aviation will require 660,000 new pilots globally over 20 years. The Air Line Pilots Association represents more than 80,000 pilots from 42 US and Canadian airlines as of 2024. The US pilot shortage -- driven by the 1,500-hour ATP rule, Baby Boomer retirements, post-COVID air travel recovery, and low pay discouraging pipeline entrants in prior years -- has prompted airlines to raise wages significantly, with major carrier starting pay now typically exceeding $100,000 for first officers and regional first-year pay reaching $80,000-$100,000 at most carriers.

How to read this number

OEWS is a point-in-time survey snapshot, not a continuous time series; BLS advises against using it for year-over-year trend comparison.

Each dot is a cited figure over time; the dotted line only links them (values between aren't measured). Hollow dots are estimates.

Official statistic: Copied by a script from a statistics agency table or a published study's table, not retyped by hand. BLS figures, ONS ASHE figures (UK pay and jobs) and the forecast and exposure tables are also re-checked against that table on every data run. Researched context: Researched from the cited source rather than copied from it by a script, so it is not machine-checked yet. Spot a mistake? Each figure has a “Report an error” link.

Cited forecasts · present → 2035

Will AI replace commercial pilots? What the research says

Each figure is stated by the named source; we publish no forecasts of our own. Where sources disagree, we show the disagreement rather than an average.

Each figure is stated by the named source; we publish no forecasts of our own. Where sources disagree, the spread is the honest signal.

What published forecasts say
Forecast change in the number of people doing this work, as published by each named source. Bars share one scale on every role, centred on zero and reaching the end at ±30%. Grey marks a small change, 3% or less either way.
  • BLS Employment Projections 2025-35
    Target year 2035
    +5.2%
    BLS National Employment Matrix, 2025-35 cycle, line for SOC 53-2012 (Commercial pilots): 50.4 thousand jobs in 2025, projected 53.0 thousand in 2035, a change of +2.6 thousand (+5.2%). Matrix employment counts all jobs in the occupation, including self-employed workers (2% of this occupation in 2025). The average for all occupations in this cycle is +3.5%.
    Official statisticReport an error
How exposed is this work to AI (research measures)
Scores as published by each study. Each row says what it measures. These measure what AI could technically do, not forecasts of jobs lost.
  • Eloundou et al. (2023), "GPTs are GPTs"
    2023 study · Share of tasks exposed to LLMs (β, human-rated)
    21.6%
    of tasks
    What this measures

    Published occupation-level exposure from the paper's occ_level.csv for O*NET-SOC 53-2012.00 Commercial Pilots. Shown: human-rated β = 0.216, the share of the occupation's tasks an LLM could do in at least half the time at equal quality, counting tasks that need LLM-powered software at half weight (β = E1 + 0.5 × E2). Other published measures for this occupation: human-rated α (LLM alone) 0 and γ (all LLM-assisted) 0.432; GPT-4-rated β 0.239. This measures how much of the work an LLM could touch, not how many jobs disappear.

    Official statisticReport an error
Today, in this role

What's changing day to day for commercial pilots

Three parts of your work where AI is already doing real lifting, and what stays yours.

AI is sitting alongside you here Check aircraft prior to flights to ensure that the engines…

, controls, instruments, and other systems are functioning properly.[2]

Where your edge is

AI is sitting alongside you here Co-pilot aircraft or perform captain's duties, as required

Sources[2]

Where your edge is

AI is sitting alongside you here Consider airport altitudes, outside temperatures, plane weights…

, and wind speeds and directions to calculate the speed needed to become airborne.[2]

Where your edge is

Tools of the era

How has the work of commercial pilots changed since 1918?

The tools that defined the work, one line per era. Select an era to see how it reshaped the work.

  • Dead reckoning + magnetic compass (open-cockpit airmail era)

    The first generation of commercial pilots flew without radio, without weather forecasts, without instrument approaches, and without any navigation aids beyond a magnetic compass, a watch, and their eyes. Dead reckoning -- calculating position from a known starting point using airspeed, heading, and elapsed time -- was the primary navigation technique. Pilots followed railroad tracks and river valleys because they were the most reliable landmarks. Night flying, which the Post Office pushed to speed mail delivery, required pilots to identify burning pots of oil lit in farmers' fields along the route. The Curtiss JN-4 "Jenny" and later the de Havilland DH-4 were the primary aircraft. Flying skill was entirely manual and embodied: there was no automation, no electronic assistance, and no redundancy. Twenty-three of the first forty airmail pilots died in this decade.

  • Radio navigation + instrument flying (beam/ILS era, Sperry autopilot)

    The 1930s brought the first systematic automation and navigation aids to commercial aviation. The Civil Aeronautics Authority (established 1938) mandated instrument flight training and ratings, creating the instrument-rated pilot as a recognized professional standard. Low-frequency radio ranges (the "four-course radio range," also called the LF/MF range) allowed pilots to follow audible signals through clouds without visual reference to the ground. The Sperry Gyroscope Company had demonstrated a functional gyroscopic autopilot as early as 1914 and by the 1930s was selling autopilot systems for airliners; by 1947 a US Air Force C-53 completed a fully automatic transatlantic flight including takeoff and landing. The Douglas DC-3, introduced in 1936, became the workhorse of the regulated airline era and remained in service for decades. Instrument flying shifted the pilot's core skill from visual terrain-following to instrument scan -- reading and cross-checking a panel of gyroscopic gauges -- a cognitive shift that defined the pilot's job for the next generation.

    Effect on the work

    Cockpit automation in this era added a co-pilot requirement to most airline operations and created the flight engineer position for larger aircraft, briefly expanding the crew-per-flight even as each individual pilot's burden decreased.

  • Jet transition + electronic navigation (VOR/DME/ILS, three-crew cockpit)

    Pan Am put the Boeing 707 into transatlantic service in October 1958; United Airlines launched domestic jet service in January 1959. The jet age transformed pilot job requirements: jet aircraft required type ratings (aircraft-specific certifications), higher minimum ATP experience, and substantially longer training programs. The three-crew cockpit -- captain, first officer, and flight engineer -- became standard on large jets. Electronic navigation using VHF Omnidirectional Range (VOR) and Distance Measuring Equipment (DME) replaced low-frequency radio ranges; the Instrument Landing System (ILS) enabled precision approaches to near-zero visibility. Pilots transitioned from flying primarily by control feel and visual reference to flying primarily by instrument reference and systems management. The regulated era of the Civil Aeronautics Board kept fares high and routes fixed, making airline employment stable and pilot wages strong for those who held scheduled carrier jobs.

  • Flight management system + EFIS glass cockpit (Boeing 767 era through 777)

    The Boeing 767 introduced the flight management system (FMS) to commercial aviation in 1982 -- a specialized computer that automated route management, performance calculations, and vertical navigation. The FMS made the navigator role obsolete: pilots now entered a route into a computer and the system calculated drift corrections, step climbs for fuel efficiency, and top-of-descent points automatically. Electronic Flight Instrument Systems (EFIS) replaced rows of analog gauges with flat-panel displays; the "glass cockpit" became the industry standard through the 1990s. The Boeing 777, entering commercial service in June 1995, was the first Boeing jetliner with fully digital fly-by-wire controls and fully software-configurable avionics, completing the transition from mechanical/hydraulic flight controls to computer-mediated flight. The FMS fundamentally shifted the pilot's job from manual stick-and-rudder to systems supervisor.

    Effect on the work

    The elimination of the flight engineer position reduced airline crew from three to two per flight, effectively cutting cockpit labor costs by one-third on long-haul operations over the course of the 1980s-2000s.

  • ADS-B surveillance + 1500-hour ATP mandate (post-Colgan regulatory hardening)

    Two overlapping changes reshaped the commercial pilot profession in this era. First, the crash of Colgan Air Flight 3407 on February 12, 2009 near Buffalo, New York (killing all aboard) triggered the most significant revision to US pilot hiring standards in decades. Congress and the FAA implemented a requirement that all first officers on Part 121 scheduled carriers hold an ATP certificate, raising the minimum flight experience threshold from the commercial-certificate level to the far higher ATP level. This constrained pilot supply precisely when demographic retirement of senior Baby Boomer captains was accelerating, producing the structural pilot shortage that has defined the industry since roughly 2013. Second, the FAA's ADS-B Out mandate (published 2010, effective January 1, 2020) replaced radar-based surveillance with GPS-derived automatic position broadcasts -- increasing air traffic control precision and situational awareness but requiring significant avionics upgrades across the US fleet. For commercial pilots, ADS-B enhanced see-and-avoid capability and reduced the workload of position reporting in non-radar environments.

  • Advanced automation suites + emerging reduced-crew certification (Honeywell Anthem, EASA eMCO research)

    Modern commercial aviation cockpits as of 2026 are managed by highly integrated avionics suites -- Honeywell Anthem, Garmin G1000 NXi, and Thales TopFlight -- that combine synthetic vision, enhanced ground proximity warning, traffic collision avoidance, and weather radar into unified displays. For commercial pilots in non-scheduled operations (charter, air ambulance, agricultural aviation, pipeline patrol), tablet-based electronic flight bags (EFB) have replaced paper charts, and GPS/WAAS approaches now enable precision landings at thousands of airports that previously lacked ILS. The next horizon is extended minimum crew operations (eMCO), a framework being studied by EASA and NTSB that would allow one pilot to rest during cruise on long-haul routes, and ultimately reduced-crew operations (RCO) with one pilot handling phases currently requiring two. Boeing's 2025-2044 Pilot and Technician Outlook forecasts that commercial aviation will need 660,000 new pilots globally over decades, suggesting that demand growth is likely to outpace any near-term headcount reduction from crew-number changes. Autonomous cargo operations (Xwing, Reliable Robotics) are advancing in the uncrewed space but face significant regulatory barriers to passenger-carrying autonomy.

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Commercial Pilots employment and pay by year

On record since1918
Latest US employment47,630 (May 2025)Source: BLS OEWS May 2025Official statisticReport an error
Latest US median pay$123,220 (May 2025)Source: BLS OEWS May 2025Official statisticReport an error
Outlook+5.2% by 2035Source: BLS Employment Projections 2025-35Official statisticReport an error
View all 27 years of cited US data, each linked to its source
Commercial Pilots in the US: employment and pay by year, with sources
YearUS employmentAnnual pay (median unless marked)SourceReport
1929n/a$2,800 (average)Est., University of Missouri Libraries[3] Researched contextReport
194016,000n/aDecennial Census 1940[1] Researched contextReport
196055,000n/aDecennial Census 1960[1] Researched contextReport
198095,000n/aDecennial Census 1980[1] Researched contextReport
200319,980$49,830BLS OEWS May 2003[2] Official statisticReport
200421,370$53,870BLS OEWS May 2004[2] Official statisticReport
200524,860$55,810BLS OEWS May 2005[2] Official statisticReport
200627,120$57,480BLS OEWS May 2006[2] Official statisticReport
200729,180$61,640BLS OEWS May 2007[2] Official statisticReport
200831,250$65,340BLS OEWS May 2008[2] Official statisticReport
200929,180$65,840BLS OEWS May 2009[2] Official statisticReport
201029,900$67,500BLS OEWS May 2010[2] Official statisticReport
201131,630$70,000BLS OEWS May 2011[2] Official statisticReport
201234,990$73,280BLS OEWS May 2012[2] Official statisticReport
201337,340$74,470BLS OEWS May 2013[2] Official statisticReport
201438,170$75,620BLS OEWS May 2014[2] Official statisticReport
201539,760$76,150BLS OEWS May 2015[2] Official statisticReport
201638,980$77,200BLS OEWS May 2016[2] Official statisticReport
201738,490$78,740BLS OEWS May 2017[2] Official statisticReport
201837,870$82,240BLS OEWS May 2018[2] Official statisticReport
201937,830$86,080BLS OEWS May 2019[2] Official statisticReport
202037,120$93,300BLS OEWS May 2020[2] Official statisticReport
202142,770$99,640BLS OEWS May 2021[2] Official statisticReport
202248,750$103,910BLS OEWS May 2022[2] Official statisticReport
202352,750$113,080BLS OEWS May 2023[2] Official statisticReport
202451,830$122,670BLS OEWS May 2024[2] Official statisticReport
202547,630$123,220BLS OEWS May 2025[2] Official statisticReport
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