Skip to sources
Time Machine

Secretaries and Administrative Assistants

3.9 million secretaries at the 1970 peak, more than any year before or since. 1.7 million remain. every figure cited

Drag the slider to travel 162 years of this work.

2026drag to travel through time
187519001925195019752000now
Country
2026
Known today as Administrative Assistant
US Employment
1.71M
OEWS is a point-in-time survey snapshot, not a continuous time series; BLS advises against using it for year-over-year trend comparison.
Median Annual Wage
$47,540
≈ $46,321 in 2024 dollars
Each dot is a cited figure over time; the dotted line only links them (values between aren't measured). Hollow dots are estimates.
Tools of the era

The tools that defined the work

Select an era to see how it reshaped the work.

  • Mechanical typewriter

    Sholes & Glidden / Remington introduced the first commercial typewriter. Within 30 years the typing-pool was the default architecture of every office and the role had been almost entirely feminized.

    Effect on the work

    1880 → 1910: stenographer/typist headcount grew from 154 to 112,600 in the US.

    Work toolChanging equipment
  • Dictaphone

    Wax-cylinder, then magnetic-tape dictation decoupled an executive's speaking from a secretary's typing. The transcription role consolidated with typing into the modern "secretary" job.

    Work toolChanging equipment
  • Xerox 914 photocopier

    The first plain-paper office copier. Eliminated carbon paper, mimeograph, and the multi-hour-per-day copying task that had been a core secretarial workload.

    Effect on the work

    Xerox 914 generated 2/3 of Xerox's $243M revenue by 1965 — adoption was near-universal in the early 1960s.

    Accounting softwareIntegrated ledgers
  • IBM MT/ST

    The Magnetic Tape Selectric Typewriter — first commercial device marketed as a "word processor". Made it possible to edit text without retyping the entire document. Coined the term "word processing".

    Work toolChanging equipment
  • Wang Word Processing System

    Dedicated CRT-screen word-processing terminals. By 1978 Wang was the largest worldwide WP supplier; 80% of the 2,000 largest US firms used Wang equipment by the early 1980s.

    Effect on the work

    First wave where office productivity tech was explicitly framed as "how to need fewer secretaries". Typing pools began shrinking.

    Work toolChanging equipment
  • Microsoft Word + WordPerfect on PC

    Word processing moved off dedicated machines onto general-purpose PCs. Pushed typing onto knowledge workers themselves — secretaries no longer typed managers' first drafts.

    Work toolChanging equipment
  • Microsoft Outlook + corporate email

    Email + integrated calendar + contacts. Eliminated message-routing as a secretarial task. Calendars still mostly secretary-managed at this point.

    Work toolChanging equipment
  • Google Calendar + cloud-shared scheduling

    First mass-market shared-calendar product. Tipped self-service scheduling out of the secretary's queue — executives started booking each other directly.

    Work toolChanging equipment
  • AI scheduling assistants (Clara, x.ai Amy)

    First commercial software products explicitly pitched as "replacing an executive assistant" for the scheduling subtask. Adoption was real but limited; Clara was acquired by Teamable in 2019 — not a market-redefining success.

    Work toolChanging equipment
  • LLMs in-line in the office suite (MS 365 Copilot, Gemini for Workspace)

    Generative AI embedded directly in Word, Outlook, Excel, Teams (Copilot, GA Nov 2023, $30/user/mo) and Google Docs/Sheets/Gmail (Gemini, broadly available 2024, $14/user/mo). Drafts replies, summarizes threads, generates documents — direct overlap with the drafting + summary loop that defines admin work.

    Effect on the work

    By Nov 2025 Office & Admin Support tasks were 13% of all Claude API transcripts (up from 10% in Aug 2025), per Anthropic Economic Index — the first observational evidence of real substitution at scale.

    AI audit toolsPattern detection
Projection cone · present → 2034

What credible sources project

Scrub the slider past now to anchor each scenario on the scrubber. The spread is the range of futures credible sources project for this role.

Employment outlook
Projected change in the number of people doing this work.
BLS Occupational Outlook 2024
2034
-1%
BLS Employment Projections — industry-occupation matrix + labor productivity assumptions. Most conservative source: assumes productivity gains absorb displacement rather than triggering layoffs.
AI task exposure
Share of the role’s tasks that researchers estimate AI can do. This is a measure of task exposure, not a forecast of jobs lost.
Frey & Osborne (2013)
2033
96%
of tasks
Gaussian-process classifier on O*NET task features; 70 expert-labeled occupations as training set. Reports "probability of computerisation" ~0.96 for 43-6014. Exact appendix decimal needs human verification of the PDF table — value used here is conventionally cited. F&O's analysis was published in 2013; baselineYear re-anchored to the 2017 OEWS employment anchor (the earliest post-publication year in this profile's employment series) so the scrubber fan-out renders cleanly. The implied 20-year horizon is unchanged.
Eloundou et al. — "GPTs are GPTs" (2023, observational)
2024
64%
of tasks
GPT-4 task-by-task labeling against O*NET task statements (published March 2023). For 43-6014: α (fully exposed) = 0.385, β (E1 + 0.5×E2) = 0.644, γ (any exposure) = 0.904. Reported here as β = -64% to fit the cone display; γ would read as -90%. baselineYear re-anchored to the 2022 OEWS employment anchor (the nearest published anchor in this profile's employment series prior to the paper's release) so the scrubber fan-out renders cleanly.
Goldman Sachs (March 2023)
2030
46%
of tasks
Goldman maps O*NET work-activity importance scores to LLM capability ratings (March 2023 report). Result is share of *tasks automatable*, not jobs lost — but 46% is the highest task-automation share among any US occupation category. Interpret as ceiling, not floor. baselineYear re-anchored from the report's 2023 task profile to 2022 OEWS employment (the nearest published anchor in this profile's employment series) so the scrubber fan-out renders cleanly.
McKinsey Global Institute
2030
25%
of tasks
Generative AI exposure × adoption-curve modeling. Specifically projects 710,000 administrative assistant jobs lost by 2030 in midpoint scenario; office support category as a whole -18%.
Anthropic Economic Index (live observational)
2026
13%
of tasks
Direct measurement of Claude API usage by task category (January 2026 report). Office & Admin Support tasks = 13% of all transcripts in Nov 2025, up from 10% in Aug 2025. Only data source observing actual substitution in production. The 13% figure is *current usage share*, not a forecast — but it directly maps to "AI is doing some real fraction of this work today". baselineYear re-anchored to the 2024 OEWS employment anchor (the most recent published anchor in this profile's employment series) so the scrubber fan-out renders cleanly.
Today, in this role

What's shifting in the work right now

The historical view above shows how this role has moved. This is the present-day detail: which AI tools are picking up which tasks, where the edge still is, and the natural directions this work can grow.

What's changing in your day

Three parts of your work where AI is already doing real lifting, and what stays yours.

AI is sitting alongside you hereDraft, route, and manage high-volume email correspondence: use Copilot in Outlook to generate context-aware draft replies from brief instructions, apply tone coaching, summarize long threads before responding, and schedule follow-up actions -- then review and personalize AI drafts before sending.

Draft, route, and manage high-volume email correspondence: use Copilot in Outlook to generate context-aware draft replies from brief instructions, apply tone coaching, summarize long threads before responding, and schedule follow-up actions -- then review and personalize AI drafts before sending.[1],[9],[6]

Tools picking this up
Where your edge is

Treat Copilot as a first-draft engine, not an autonomous sender. Audit its tone suggestions for organizational culture fit, add relationship context the AI cannot know (e.g., this stakeholder prefers brevity; that vendor needs extra reassurance), and build a personal prompt library for recurring message types so output quality compounds over time.

AI is sitting alongside you hereCoordinate calendars for multiple stakeholders: use AI scheduling tools (Reclaim, Copilot Scheduled Prompts) to surface optimal meeting times, protect focus blocks, auto-reschedule conflicts, and manage travel buffers -- then configure priority rules and review edge cases the AI escalates.

Coordinate calendars for multiple stakeholders: use AI scheduling tools (Reclaim, Copilot Scheduled Prompts) to surface optimal meeting times, protect focus blocks, auto-reschedule conflicts, and manage travel buffers -- then configure priority rules and review edge cases the AI escalates.[7],[10],[1]

Where your edge is

Learn to configure Reclaim priority weights and Copilot scheduling policies rather than treating them as black boxes. Admins who understand how the AI resolves conflicts become the system owners -- a role computers cannot fill -- while basic scheduling coordination becomes fully automated.

AI is sitting alongside you hereMaintain organizational records and databases: configure Zapier automation to route form submissions, inbound emails, and spreadsheet updates into the correct database fields automatically

Maintain organizational records and databases: configure Zapier automation to route form submissions, inbound emails, and spreadsheet updates into the correct database fields automatically; audit automated entries for errors; manage access permissions; and handle records requests that fall outside automated rules.[11],[1]

Tools picking this up
Where your edge is

Learn to build and maintain Zapier "Zaps" and Power Automate flows for common data-routing tasks (form-to-spreadsheet, email-to-CRM, approval notifications). Each workflow you automate frees hours per week and demonstrates the operations fluency that opens career paths to operations coordinator roles.

Where this role is heading

Natural next steps for someone with your foundation: not exits, evolutions.

A direction you could grow

Administrative Services Managers

Administrative assistants who learn to configure and govern AI automation tools are already doing the work of an administrative services manager: designing workflows, overseeing records systems, and coordinating across teams. Organizations replacing admin headcount with AI agents still need a human to own those systems, audit their output, and manage vendors. Admins with demonstrated automation skills can move into manager roles without a degree by building a portfolio of workflows they have designed and maintained.

What you'd add
  • · No-code automation ownership: Zapier Certified Expert path or Microsoft Power Automate fundamentals
  • · Budget and vendor management basics: negotiating SaaS contracts, tracking departmental spend
  • · Staff supervision: performance feedback, delegation, onboarding documentation
  • · Records governance and compliance: data retention policies, GDPR/CCPA basics for office records
What it takesSome new skills to pick up
Share this year
Drops anyone you send it to straight into 2026.
Preview card
Part of Admin & Office · see all 39roles →
Different role?

See the same long-arc view for your own profession.

Browse the directory by industry, or search by title or SOC code. New roles ship every few weeks. Every profile cites every claim.

Browse all roles

The data behind this timeline

On record since1874
Latest tracked employment1,706,790 (US, 2025)
Latest median pay$47,540 (2025)
Outlook-1% by 2034 (BLS Occupational Outlook 2024)
View all 35 cited data points
YearUS employmentMedian annual paySource
1900184,000n/aCENSUS-DECENNIAL
1910387,000$1,156CENSUS-DECENNIAL, BLS-HISTORICAL-BULLETIN
1915n/a$1,267BLS-HISTORICAL-BULLETIN
1920786,000$2,160CENSUS-DECENNIAL, BLS-HISTORICAL-BULLETIN
1925n/a$2,239BLS-HISTORICAL-BULLETIN
19301,097,000n/aCENSUS-DECENNIAL
19401,223,000n/aCENSUS-DECENNIAL
19501,661,000n/aCENSUS-DECENNIAL
19602,318,000n/aCENSUS-DECENNIAL
19703,914,000n/aCENSUS-DECENNIAL
1999n/a$26,554CENSUS
20002,400,000n/aCENSUS-DECENNIAL
20031,845,860$25,420BLS-OEWS
20041,743,560$26,110BLS-OEWS
20051,744,380$26,670BLS-OEWS
20061,750,600$27,450BLS-OEWS
20071,832,490$28,220BLS-OEWS
20081,872,070$29,050BLS-OEWS
20091,797,670$29,980BLS-OEWS
20101,841,020$30,830BLS-OEWS
20111,955,570$31,870BLS-OEWS
20122,085,680$32,410BLS-OEWS
20132,159,000$32,840BLS-OEWS
20142,207,220$33,240BLS-OEWS
20152,281,120$33,910BLS-OEWS
20162,295,510$34,820BLS-OEWS
20173,280,000$35,590BLS-OEWS
20182,756,832$36,630BLS-OEWS
20192,780,000$39,913CENSUS-DECENNIAL, CENSUS
20201,850,360$38,850BLS-OEWS
20211,889,381$37,880BLS-OEWS
20222,038,340$41,000BLS-OEWS
20231,785,430$44,280BLS-OEWS
20241,944,000$46,290BLS-OEWS
20251,706,790$47,540BLS-OEWS
Embed this timeline on your site

Free for any site. Paste this where the timeline should appear; it stays interactive, every datapoint stays cited, and it sets no cookies on your page. How embedding works

<iframe src="https://futurehistory.earth/embed/43-6014"
  width="100%" height="430" style="border:0"
  title="Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, a Future History timeline"
  loading="lazy"></iframe>

See all roles in Admin & Office