Data story
AI and jobs: what the sources say
Of the 25 largest jobs we track, BLS projects employment from 2025 to 2035 to grow in 15, to decline in 5 and to change by less than 1 percent in 5 (BLS Employment Projections 2025-35). Studies of AI exposure measure how much of a job's work AI could touch; none of them is a forecast of job losses.
Data as of: BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025-35.
The 25 largest jobs: the BLS outlook and each AI study
| Job | Jobs, BLS OEWS | BLS projected change in jobs | Tasks exposed to large language models (Eloundou and others, 2023) | Probability of computerisation (Frey and Osborne, 2013) | Tasks exposed to AI automation in the job's group (Goldman Sachs, 2023) | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Salespersons | 3,897,860May 2025 | -0.3%2025 to 2035 | 35.5% | 0.92 | None cited | |
| Fast Food and Counter Workers | 3,854,050May 2025 | +5.8%2025 to 2035 | 7.3% | None cited | None cited | |
| General and Operations Managers | 3,503,020May 2025 | +5%2025 to 2035 | 38.5% | 0.16 | None cited | |
| Registered Nurses | 3,379,720May 2025 | +5.6%2025 to 2035 | 38.1% | None cited | None cited | |
| Cashiers | 3,089,410May 2025 | -6.5%2025 to 2035 | 36% | 0.97 | None cited | |
| Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand | 2,950,280May 2025 | +1.8%2025 to 2035 | 6% | 0.85 | None cited | |
| Stockers and Order Fillers | 2,833,810May 2025 | +8.9%2025 to 2035 | 19.1% | 0.64 | None cited | |
| Customer Service Representatives | 2,595,750May 2025 | -5.3%2025 to 2035 | 70.5% | 0.55 | None cited | |
| Office Clerks, General | 2,464,940May 2025 | -6%2025 to 2035 | 50% | 0.96 | 46%office and administrative support occupations | |
| Waiters and Waitresses | 2,270,910May 2025 | +2%2025 to 2035 | 22.4% | 0.94 | None cited | |
| Janitors and Building Cleaners | 2,209,760May 2025 | +2.2%2025 to 2035 | 2.8% | 0.66 | None cited | |
| Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers | 2,062,040May 2025 | +3.8%2025 to 2035 | 17.3% | 0.79 | None cited | |
| Secretaries and Administrative Assistants | 1,706,790May 2025 | -6%2025 to 2035 | 56.7% | 0.96 | 46%office and administrative support occupations | |
| Software Developers | 1,687,890May 2025 | +10.2%2025 to 2035 | 44.7% | None cited | 29%computer and mathematical occupations | |
| Maintenance and Repair Workers, General | 1,529,700May 2025 | +4.2%2025 to 2035 | 7.8% | 0.64 | None cited | |
| Accountants and Auditors | 1,449,500May 2025 | +5%2025 to 2035 | 52% | 0.94 | None cited | |
| Nursing Assistants | 1,448,910May 2025 | +2.6%2025 to 2035 | 13.6% | None cited | None cited | |
| First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers | 1,436,680May 2025 | +0.1%2025 to 2035 | 53.1% | None cited | None cited | |
| Cooks, Restaurant | 1,409,890May 2025 | +12.1%2025 to 2035 | 12.2% | 0.96 | None cited | |
| Elementary School Teachers, Except Special Education | 1,388,390May 2025 | -0.4%2025 to 2035 | 31.1% | 0.0044 | None cited | |
| Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks | 1,373,680May 2025 | -5.6%2025 to 2035 | 31.4% | 0.98 | None cited | |
| Security Guards | 1,283,470May 2025 | +0.9%2025 to 2035 | 25% | 0.84 | None cited | |
| Sales Representatives of Services, Except Advertising, Insurance, Financial Services, and Travel | 1,256,010May 2025 | +2.7%2025 to 2035 | 56.7% | None cited | None cited | |
| Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products | 1,238,190May 2025 | -0.9%2025 to 2035 | 70.7% | None cited | None cited | |
| First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers | 1,223,240May 2025 | +5.4%2025 to 2035 | 25.6% | None cited | None cited |
How this list was made
- Rows are the 25 timelines with the most jobs in the May 2025 BLS OEWS survey, largest first. The order is by size only: no column is a score, and the studies are never combined.
- BLS projected change: the BLS Employment Projections 2025-35 figure for the occupation, which counts all jobs including the self-employed. BLS describes a change under 1 percent either way as little or no change.
- Eloundou and others (2023): the share of the job's tasks where a large language model could cut the time a person needs by at least half, with tasks that also need software built on the model counted at half weight (their human-rated beta measure).
- Frey and Osborne (2013): their estimate of the probability that the whole occupation could be computerised, over "some unspecified number of years, perhaps a decade or two".
- Goldman Sachs (2023): the share of work tasks exposed to automation by AI across the job's whole occupational group in the US, not this job alone.
- "None cited" means we hold no figure from that source for the job. Not a forecast of job losses: an exposure figure says what AI could touch, not how many jobs will go.
What these numbers cannot tell you
- Exposure is not replacement. A job with highly exposed tasks can grow if the work left over is in demand; BLS projections already weigh that for the decade to 2035.
- BLS OEWS counts wage and salary jobs; BLS projections count all jobs, so the two are not compared here.
Sources
- BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS), May 2025
- BLS Employment Projections 2025-35, National Employment Matrix
- Eloundou, Manning, Mishkin and Rock (2023), "GPTs are GPTs", occupation-level data
- Frey and Osborne (2013), "The Future of Employment", appendix
- Briggs and Kodnani (2023), "The Potentially Large Effects of Artificial Intelligence on Economic Growth", Goldman Sachs, Exhibit 5
- Each row also names the exact sources for its own figures.